Bardsley T.,Western Water Assessment |
Wood A.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Hobbins M.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
Burian S.,University of Utah
Earth Interactions | Year: 2013
Assessing climate change risk to municipal water supplies is often conducted by hydrologic modeling specific to local watersheds and infrastructure to ensure that outputs are compatible with existing planning frameworks and processes. This study leverages the modeling capacity of an operational National Weather Service River Forecast Center to explore the potential impacts of future climate-driven hydrologic changes on factors important to planning at the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities (SLC). Hydrologic modeling results for the study area align with prior research in showing that temperature changes alone will lead to earlier runoff and reduced runoff volume. The sensitivity of average annual flow to temperature varies significantly between watersheds, averaging -3.8% 8F-1 and ranging from -1.8% to -6.5% flow reduction per degree Fahrenheit of warming. The largest flow reductions occur during the high water demand months of May-September. Precipitation drives hydrologic response more strongly than temperature, with each 1% precipitation change producing an average 1.9% runoff change of the same sign. This paper explores the consequences of climate change for the reliability of SLC's water supply system using scenarios that include hydrologic changes in average conditions, severe drought scenarios, and future water demand test cases. The most significant water management impacts will be earlier and reduced runoff volume, which threaten the system's ability to maintain adequate streamflow and storage to meet late-summer water demands. © 2013.
DeRose R.J.,U.S. Department of Agriculture |
Bekker M.F.,Brigham Young University |
Wang S.-Y.,Utah State University |
Buckley B.M.,Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory |
And 4 more authors.
Journal of Hydrology | Year: 2015
The Bear River contributes more water to the eastern Great Basin than any other river system. It is also the most significant source of water for the burgeoning Wasatch Front metropolitan area in northern Utah. Despite its importance for water resources for the region's agricultural, urban, and wildlife needs, our understanding of the variability of Bear River's stream flow derives entirely from the short instrumental record (1943-2010). Here we present a 1200-year calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of stream flow for the Bear River that explains 67% of the variance of the instrumental record over the period from 1943 to 2010. Furthermore, we developed this reconstruction from a species that is not typically used for dendroclimatology, Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). We identify highly significant periodicity in our reconstruction at quasi-decadal (7-8. year), multi-decadal (30. year), and centennial (>50. years) scales. The latter half of the 20th century was found to be the 2nd wettest (~40-year) period of the past 1200. years, while the first half of the 20th century marked the 4th driest period. The most severe period of reduced stream flow occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. mid-1200s CE) and persisted for ~70. years. Upper-level circulation anomalies suggest that atmospheric teleconnections originating in the western tropical Pacific are responsible for the delivery of precipitation to the Bear River watershed during the October-December (OND) season of the previous year. The Bear River flow was compared to recent reconstructions of the other tributaries to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and the GSL level. Implications for water management could be drawn from the observation that the latter half of the 20th century was the 2nd wettest in 1200. years, and that management for future water supply should take into account the stream flow variability over the past millennium. © 2015.
Goharian E.,University of Utah |
Burian S.J.,University of Utah |
Bardsley T.,Western Water Assessment |
Strong C.,University of Utah
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management | Year: 2016
In response to climate change, vulnerability assessment of water resources systems is typically performed based on quantifying the severity of the failure. This paper introduces an approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a set of new factors. The method is demonstrated with a case study of a reservoir system in Salt Lake City using an integrated modeling framework composed of a hydrologic model and a systems model driven by temperature and precipitation data for a 30-year historical (1981-2010) period. The climate of the selected future (2036-2065) simulation periods were represented by five combinations of warm or hot, wet or dry, and central tendency projections derived from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results of the analysis illustrate that basing vulnerability on severity alone may lead to an incorrect quantification of the system vulnerability. In this study, a typical vulnerability metric (severity) incorrectly provides low magnitudes under the projected future warm-wet climate condition. The proposed new metric correctly indicates the vulnerability to be high because it accounts for additional factors. To further explore the new factors, a sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to show the impact and importance of the factors on the vulnerability of the system under different climate conditions. The new metric provides a comprehensive representation of system vulnerability under climate change scenarios, which can help decision makers and stakeholders evaluate system operation and infrastructure changes for climate adaptation. © 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.