Efrat, Israel
Efrat, Israel

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Givati A.,Israeli Hydrological Service | Lynn B.,Weather It Is Ltd. | Liu Y.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research | Rimmer A.,Israel Oceanographic And Limnological Research
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology | Year: 2012

TheWeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation prediction has been coupled with the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE) to forecast the upper Jordan River streamflow. The daily WRF precipitation forecasts were verified against the measurements from a dense network of rain gauges in northern and central Israel, and the simulation results using the high-resolution WRF indicated good agreement with the actual measurements. The daily precipitation amount calculated byWRFat rain gauges located in the upper parts of the Jordan River basin showed good agreement with the actual measurements. Numerical experiments were carried out to test the impact of the WRF model resolution and WRF microphysical schemes, to determine an optimal model configuration for this application. Because of orographic forcing in the region, it is necessary to run WRF with a 4-1.3-km grid increment and with sophisticated microphysical schemes that consider liquid water, ice, snow, and graupel to produce quality precipitation predictions. The hydrological modeling system that ingests the highresolution WRF forecast precipitation produced good results and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast method for the Jordan River that is now in use. The modeling tools presented in this study are used to support the water-resource-assessment process and studies of seasonal hydroclimatic forecasting in this region. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

Hogrefe C.,Albany State University | Hogrefe C.,NY Environmental Conservation | Hao W.,NY Environmental Conservation | Zalewsky E.E.,NY Environmental Conservation | And 9 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2011

This study presents the results from two sets of 18-year air quality simulations over the Northeastern US performed with a regional photochemical modeling system. These two simulations utilize different sets of lateral boundary conditions, one corresponding to a time-invariant climatological vertical profile and the other derived from monthly mean concentrations extracted from archived ECHAM5-MOZART global simulations. The objective is to provide illustrative examples of how model performance in several key aspects - trends, intra- and interannual variability of ground-level ozone, and ozone/precursor relationships - can be evaluated against available observations, and to identify key inputs and processes that need to be considered when performing and improving such long-term simulations. To this end, several methods for comparing observed and simulated trends and variability of ground level ozone concentrations, ozone precursors and ozone/precursor relationships are introduced. The application of these methods to the simulation using time-invariant boundary conditions reveals that the observed downward trend in the upper percentiles of summertime ozone concentrations is captured by the model in both directionality and magnitude. However, for lower percentiles there is a marked disagreement between observed and simulated trends. In terms of variability, the simulations using the time-invariant boundary conditions underestimate observed inter-annual variability by 30%-50% depending on the percentiles of the distribution. The use of boundary conditions from the ECHAM5-MOZART simulations improves the representation of interannual variability but has an adverse impact on the simulated ozone trends. Moreover, biases in the global simulations have the potential to significantly affect ozone simulations throughout the modeling domain, both at the surface and aloft. The comparison of both simulations highlights the significant impact lateral boundary conditions can have on a regional air quality model's ability to simulate long-term ozone variability and trends, especially for the lower percentiles of the ozone distribution. © 2011 Author(s).

Yair Y.,Open University of Israel | Lynn B.,Open University of Israel | Lynn B.,Weather It Is Ltd. | Price C.,Tel Aviv University | And 5 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2010

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0°C and -20°C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Civerolo K.,NY Environmental Conservation | Hogrefe C.,NY Environmental Conservation | Hogrefe C.,University at Albany | Zalewsky E.,NY Environmental Conservation | And 5 more authors.
Atmospheric Environment | Year: 2010

This paper compares spatial and seasonal variations and temporal trends in modeled and measured concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in wet and dry deposition over an 18-year period (1988-2005) over a portion of the northeastern United States. Substantial emissions reduction programs occurred over this time period, including Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 which primarily resulted in large decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 1995, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) trading programs which resulted in large decreases in warm season NOx emissions by 2004. Additionally, NOx emissions from mobile sources declined more gradually over this period. The results presented here illustrate the use of both operational and dynamic model evaluation and suggest that the modeling system largely captures the seasonal and long-term changes in sulfur compounds. The modeling system generally captures the long-term trends in nitrogen compounds, but does not reproduce the average seasonal variation or spatial patterns in nitrate. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Lynn B.H.,NASA | Lynn B.H.,Weather It Is LTD | Rosenzweig C.,NASA | Goldberg R.,NASA | And 12 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2010

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer "time-slice" simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project-a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Lynn B.H.,Weather It Is Ltd. | Yair Y.,Open University of Israel | Price C.,Tel Aviv University | Kelman G.,Weather It Is Ltd. | Clark A.J.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Weather and Forecasting | Year: 2012

A new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic contribution of the grid-scale-resolved microphysical and vertical velocity fields to the production of cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in convection-allowing forecasts. The source of Ep is assumed to be the noninductive charge separation process involving collisions of graupel and ice particles in the presence of supercooled liquid water. The Ep dissipates when it exceeds preassigned threshold values and lightning is generated. An analysis of four case studies is presented and analyzed. On the 4-km simulation grid, a single cloud-to-ground lightning event was forecast with about equal values of probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR). However, when lighting was integrated onto 12-km and then 36-km grid overlays, there was a large improvement in the forecast skill, and as many as 10 cloud-to-ground lighting events were well forecast on the 36-km grid. The impact of initial conditions on forecast accuracy is briefly discussed, including an evaluation of the scheme in wintertime, when lightning activity is weaker. The dynamic algorithm forecasts are also contrasted with statistical lightning forecasts and differences are noted. The scheme is being used operationally with the Rapid Refresh (13 km) data; the skill scores in these operational runs were very good in clearly defined convective situations. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

Lynn B.H.,Hebrew University of Jerusalem | Khain A.P.,Hebrew University of Jerusalem | Bao J.W.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Michelson S.A.,University of Colorado at Boulder | And 5 more authors.
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences | Year: 2016

Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurred, atypically, about 40 h later than the time of maximum wind speed. Possible reasons for Irene's weakening and the time shift between maximum wind and minimum central pressure were studied in simulations using WRF with spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) with 1-km grid spacing and ocean coupling. Both ocean coupling and aerosol distribution/concentration were found to influence Irene's development. Without ocean coupling or with ocean coupling and uniform aerosol distribution, the simulated maximum wind occurred at about the same time as the minimum pressure. With ocean coupling and nonuniform spatial aerosol distributions caused by aerosols from the Saharan air layer (band) and the continental United States, the maximum wind occurred about 40 h before the simulated minimum pressure, in agreement with observations. Concentrations of aerosols of several hundred per cubic centimeter in the inner core were found to initially cause convection invigoration in the simulated eyewall. In contrast, a weakening effect dominated at the mature and the decaying stages, when aerosols from the band and land intensified convection at the simulated storm's periphery. Simulations made with 3-km instead of 1-km grid spacing suggest that cloud-scale processes interactions are required to correctly simulate the timing differences between maximum wind and minimum pressure. © 2016 American Meteorological Society.

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