Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Huong H.T.L.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology |
Pathirana A.,UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2013
Urban development increases flood risk in cities due to local changes in hydrological and hydrometeorological conditions that increase flood hazard, as well as to urban concentrations that increase the vulnerability. The relationship between the increasing urban runoff and flooding due to increased imperviousness is better perceived than that between the cyclic impact of urban growth and the urban rainfall via microclimatic changes. The large-scale, global impacts due to climate variability and change could compound these risks. We present the case of a typical third world city - Can Tho (the biggest city in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam) - faced with multiple future challenges, namely: (i) the likely effect of climate change-driven sea level rise, (ii) an expected increase of river runoff due to climate change as estimated by the Vietnamese government, (iii) increased urban runoff driven by imperviousness, and (iv) enhancement of extreme rainfall due to urban growth-driven, microclimatic change (urban heat islands). A set of model simulations were used to construct future scenarios, combining these influences. Urban growth of the city was projected up to year 2100 based on historical growth patterns, using a land use simulation model (Dinamica EGO). A dynamic limited-area atmospheric model (WRF), coupled with a detailed land surface model with vegetation parameterization (Noah LSM), was employed in controlled numerical experiments to estimate the anticipated changes in extreme rainfall patterns due to urban heat island effect. Finally, a 1-D/2-D coupled urban-drainage/flooding model (SWMM-Brezo) was used to simulate storm-sewer surcharge and surface inundation to establish the increase in the flood hazard resulting from the changes. The results show that under the combined scenario of significant change in river level (due to climate-driven sea level rise and increase of flow in the Mekong) and "business as usual" urbanization, the flooding of Can Tho could increase significantly. The worst case may occur if a sea level rise of 100 cm and the flow from upstream happen together with high-development scenarios. The relative contribution of causes of flooding are significantly different at various locations; therefore, detailed research on adaptation are necessary for future investments to be effective. © Author(s) 2013.
Hung C.V.,Hanoi University of Science |
Cam B.D.,Hanoi University of Science |
Mai P.T.N.,Hanoi University of Science |
Dzung B.Q.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Environmental Geochemistry and Health | Year: 2014
Concentrations of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sludge from Kim Nguu River, Hanoi, Vietnam, were analyzed to understand the contamination levels, distribution and accumulation pattern of municipal sludge from a highly urbanized area that receive direct discharge of wastewater. High concentrations of heavy metals such as As, Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn were observed in sludge, which were exceeded the Vietnamese regulation threshold values. In general, contamination status of heavy metals in sludge was in the similar range or slightly lower than those previously reported in sludge from the same area. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were 24.3, 2.65, 105, 166, 60.8, 73.7 and 569 mg/kg dry wt., respectively. Our result also indicates increased levels of PAHs, which are among the first data on PAHs accumulation in municipal sludge from metropolitan area in Vietnam. PAH concentrations ranged from 218 to 751 mg/kg dry wt. (mean: 456 mg/kg dry wt.), which were greater than those reported in sewage sludge from other countries as well as in sediments and soils collected from the same area. Accumulation pattern revealed the predominant of higher-ringed PAH compounds. Indicator ratios suggest the sources of PAHs were probably derived from biomass (wood and coal) and fossil fuel combustion and petroleum emissions. Most of the sludge samples contain PAHs concentrations exceeding various international guidelines values for sludge and sediment, such as probable effect levels, suggesting the possible risk for adverse biological effects in the study area and in the landfill sites where dredged sludge was dumped. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Gobin A.,Flemish Institute for Technological Research |
Nguyen H.T.,Center for Meteorology Hydrology and Environment Science and Technology Hanoi Vietnam |
Pham V.Q.,Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology |
Pham H.T.T.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015
Heavy rainfall months of more than 450mm occur in all 56 meteorological stations in eight climatic zones of Vietnam during the rainy season from April to September in the north (>20°N), from August to December in the centre and from May to November in the south (<12°N). The severity of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, expressed as the integral of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the central tropical Pacific over the duration, shows a 4.6-fold (2.3-fold) increase in number of heavy rainfall months during La Niña (El Niño) per unit change in severity during the 1960-2009 period, suggesting a twin peak occurrence with both ENSO extremes. A heavy rainfall index (HRI) links heavy rainfall months to the rainy season duration, and allows evaluation of the rainfall severity per station, climatic zone and ENSO cycle. For the deltas and central climatic zones, seasonal rainfall and number of heavy rainfall months are significantly higher at the p<0.05 level during La Niña than during El Niño episodes. Interpolated seasonal rainfall shows distinct differences between regions, with location having a larger effect than ENSO cycles on monthly rainfall amounts. Twenty-year return monthly rainfall derived from generalized Pareto distributions for peak over thresholds range from 475mm in the central highlands to 2185mm in the central coast. The spatial and temporal patterns of heavy monthly rainfall help explain flooding and paddy inundation which occur at least twice as frequent during La Niña as compared to El Niño conditions, particularly in Central Vietnam. The relation of HRI with both 20-year return levels and ENSO cycles offers opportunities for fast screening of impacts in a wider region of Southeast Asia. Because ENSO cycles have an impact on flooding and paddy inundation, it provides prospects for early warning, differentiated for different zones and rainfall regimes. © 2015 Royal Meteorological Society.
Van T.T.,Vrije Universiteit Brussel |
Van T.T.,Free University of Colombia |
Van T.T.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology |
Wilson N.,Center for Sustainable Rural Development |
And 7 more authors.
Acta Oecologica | Year: 2015
Aerial photographs and satellite images have been used to determine land cover changes during the period 1953 to 2011 in the Mui Ca Mau, Vietnam, especially in relation to changes in the mangrove area. The mangrove area declined drastically from approximately 71,345ha in 1953 to 33,083ha in 1992, then rose to 46,712ha in 2011. Loss due to herbicide attacks during the Vietnam War, overexploitation, and conversion into agriculture and aquaculture encouraged by land management policies are being partially counteracted by natural regeneration and replanting, especially a gradual increase in plantations as part of integrated mangrove-shrimp farming systems. The nature of the mangrove vegetation has markedly been transformed over this period. The results are valuable for management planning to understand and improve the contribution of mangrove forests to the provision of ecosystem services and resources, local livelihood and global interest. © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS.
Hitzl D.E.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Chen Y.-L.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Nguyen H.V.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Nguyen H.V.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Monthly Weather Review | Year: 2014
During the summer, sustained winds in the -Alenuihāhā Channel, Hawaii, may exceed 20ms-1 with higher gusts. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to diagnose airflow in the Hawaiian coastal waters. High-resolution (2 km) runs are performed for July 2005 covering the -Alenuihāhā Channel and nested in a 6-km state domain. Under normal trade wind conditions (7-8ms-1), winds at the channel entrance are 1-2ms-1 faster than upstream due to the convergence of the deflected airflows by the islands of Maui and Hawaii, and accelerate through the channel due to along-gap pressure gradients and lower pressure in the wakes of both islands. The acceleration is accompanied by descending airflow (>9 cms-1) in the exit region with lowering of the trade wind inversion. Deceleration occurs downstream of the channel exit with a rapid change from sinking motion to rising motion (>3 cms-1). Under normal or strong trade wind conditions, the flow is subcritical [Froude number (Fr)< 1] upstream of the channel, supercritical (Fr>1) in the exit region, and subcritical again (Fr<1) downstream with a weak hydraulic jump. The localized sinking motion on the lee side of bordering ridgelines (>1ms-1) is most significant in the afternoon hours and results in warming and lowering of surface pressure on the lee side, into the channel, and farther downstream. As a result, the channel winds and the wind speed maximum along the southeastern coast of Maui exhibit an afternoon maximum. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
Van Khiem M.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology |
Redmond G.,UK Met Office |
McSweeney C.,UK Met Office |
Thuc T.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2014
This article presents an assessment of the skill of regional climate model PRECIS in simulating seasonal climate over Vietnam. The simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25km×25km. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and five members of the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensemble (PPE). CRU, APHRODITE, ERA40 datasets and observations recorded at 61 meteorological stations over Vietnam were used to validate the model. The analysis compared seasonal averages of observed and simulated precipitation, temperature, 850hPa wind speed and direction, as well as the 99th percentile of daily precipitation and the 95th and 5th percentile of daily minimum and maximum temperatures. Annual cycles of temperature and precipitation, and the interannual variability of precipitation were also assessed. The reanalysis-driven simulation accurately reproduced most of the important characteristics of the observed spatial patterns and annual cycles of circulation rainfall and temperature as well as capturing key characteristics of interannual variability in rainfall and of extremes in precipitation and temperature. Some apparent systematic cool biases were found most likely to be an artefact of inadequacies in the CRU-gridded temperature observations. The regional model was found to introduce some systematic wet-biases in rainfall. The five GCM driven simulations demonstrated errors with similar characteristics to the ERA-Interim-driven simulations, although with diversity in the magnitude of those errors resulting from the differences in the characteristics of the different members of the HadCM3-based PPE. By assessing the skill of these models at producing realistic baseline simulations, we gain valuable contextual information to guide the application and interpretation of the future projections over Vietnam generated using these models. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.
Vinh V.D.,Institute of Marine Environment and Resources |
Ouillon S.,Toulouse 1 University Capitole |
Ouillon S.,Hanoi University of Science and Technology |
Thanh T.D.,Institute of Marine Environment and Resources |
Chu L.V.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2014
The Hoa Binh dam (HBD), located on a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam, has a capacity of 9.45 × 109 m3 and was commissioned in December 1988. Although it is important for flood prevention, electricity production and irrigation in northern Vietnam, the Hoa Binh dam has also highly influenced the suspended sediment distribution in the lower Red River basin, in the delta and in the coastal zone. Its impact was analysed from a 50-year data set of water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (1960-2010), and the distribution of water and sediment across the nine mouths of the delta was simulated using the MIKE11 numerical model before and after the dam settlement. Although water discharge at the delta inlet decreased by only 9%, the yearly suspended sediment flux dropped, on average, by 61% at Son Tay near Hanoi (from 119 to 46 × 106 t yr-1). Along the coast, reduced sedimentation rates are coincident with the lower sediment delivery observed since the impoundment of the Hoa Binh dam. Water regulation has led to decreased water discharge in the wet season (-14% in the Red River at Son Tay) and increased water discharge in the dry season (+12% at the same station). The ratios of water and suspended sediment flows, as compared to the total flows in the nine mouths, increased in the northern and southern estuaries and decreased in the central, main Ba Lat mouth. The increasing volume of dredged sediments in the Haiphong harbour is evidence of the silting up of the northern estuary of Cam-Bach Dang. The effect of tidal pumping on enhanced flow occurring in the dry season and resulting from changed water regulation is discussed as a possible cause of the enhanced siltation of the estuary after Hoa Binh dam impoundment. © 2014 Author(s).
Chen C.-Y.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Chen C.-Y.,National Central University |
Chen Y.-L.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
van Nguyen H.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
van Nguyen H.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology
Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere | Year: 2014
The scheme developed by Nguyen and Chen (2011) is used to produce 18 TCs (2004-2013) over the Northwestern Pacific that are well adjusted to the environment. The environment, including SST, in which the storm is embedded has a significant effect on the intensity and rainband patterns of these TCs. During the early season, TCs have a tendency to exhibit a "9" type asymmetric structure with an upper-level outflow channel extending southwestward from the southeastern quadrate of the storm. At low levels, the convergence area between the TC circulation and the southwesterly monsoon flow is a favorable location for the development of spiral rainbands. Late season TCs have a tendency to produce a "6" type storm structure with an outflow channel extending northeastward from the northwestern part of the eyewall, especially when an upper-level cold low or trough is present to the northwest of the storm. At low levels, the convergence of the northeasterly monsoon flow and the TC circulation is favorable for the occurrences of spiral rainbands. For intense TCs that underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, the scheme also shows considerable skill in reproducing the concentric eyewall structure. © 2014, the Meteorological Society of Japan.
Tran H.,Vrije Universiteit Brussel |
Tran H.,Hanoi University of Mining and Geology |
Tran T.,Vietnam Institute of Meteorology |
Kervyn M.,Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Remote Sensing | Year: 2015
The main objective of this study is to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover/land use changes in the lower Mekong Delta over the last 40 years with the coastal Tran Van Thoi District of Ca Mau Province, Vietnam as a case study. Land cover/land use change dynamics are derived from moderate to high spatial resolution (Landsat and SPOT) satellite imagery in six time intervals ranging from 1973 to 2011. Multi-temporal satellite images were collected, georeferenced, classified using per-pixel method, validated, and compared in post classification for the land use/land cover change detection in decades. Seven major land cover/land use classes were obtained, including cultivated lands, aquaculture ponds, mangrove forest, melaleuca forest, built up areas, bare lands, and natural water bodies. The accuracies of the land cover/land use maps for 1973, 1979, 1989, 1995, 2004, and 2011 were 81%, 82%, 86%, 87%, 89%, and 89%, respectively. The results show that the area of cultivated lands reduced over the period 1973-2011, however, it still represents the dominant land use in the case study. Aquaculture ponds were almost absent in 1973 but greatly increased from 1995 to 2004, to represent 20% of the land surface in 2011. Overall, from 1973 to 2011, bare lands, cultivated lands, mangrove forest, and melaleuca forest decreased by 104 km2, 77 km2, 61 km2, and 5 km2, respectively. In contrast, aquaculture lands and built up areas increased by 123 km2 and 120 km2, respectively. Temporal analysis highlights that these changes took place mostly between 1995 and 2004. This study is a first step to identify the main drivers of land use changes in this delta region, which include economical policies as well as demographic, socio-economic, and environmental changes. © 2015 by the authors.