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Baussano I.,International Agency for Research on Cancer | Elfstrom K.M.,Karolinska Institutet | Lazzarato F.,University of Turin | Gillio-Tos A.,University of Turin | And 6 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2013

Infection with high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Vaccination against HPV16 and 18 types, which are responsible of about 75% of cervical cancer worldwide, is expected to have a major global impact on cervical cancer occurrence. Valid estimates of the parameters that regulate the natural history of hrHPV infections are crucial to draw reliable projections of the impact of vaccination. We devised a mathematical model to estimate the probability of infection transmission, the rate of clearance, and the patterns of immune response following the clearance of infection of 13 hrHPV types. To test the validity of our estimates, we fitted the same transmission model to two large independent datasets from Italy and Sweden and assessed finding consistency. The two populations, both unvaccinated, differed substantially by sexual behaviour, age distribution, and study setting (screening for cervical cancer or Chlamydia trachomatis infection). Estimated transmission probability of hrHPV types (80% for HPV16, 73%-82% for HPV18, and above 50% for most other types); clearance rates decreasing as a function of time since infection; and partial protection against re-infection with the same hrHPV type (approximately 20% for HPV16 and 50% for the other types) were similar in the two countries. The model could accurately predict the HPV16 prevalence observed in Italy among women who were not infected three years before. In conclusion, our models inform on biological parameters that cannot at the moment be measured directly from any empirical data but are essential to forecast the impact of HPV vaccination programmes. © 2013 Baussano et al.

Rubaltelli L.,University of Padua | Beltrame V.,University of Padua | Scagliori E.,Venetian Oncology Institute IOV | Bezzon E.,Venetian Oncology Institute IOV | And 3 more authors.
Ultraschall in der Medizin | Year: 2014

Purpose: Malignant melanoma represents a significant and growing public health burden worldwide. Ultrasonography is the most useful diagnostic modality for regional lymph nodal staging. Because any focal areas of cortical lobulation or thickening-swelling should also be considered as a sign of metastases, we are going to report the usefulness of contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) in the differential diagnosis of benign or malignant lymph nodes in patients with malignant melanoma based on blood stream patterns and investigate the diagnostic capability. Patients and Methods: After the excision of cutaneous melanoma with positive excision margins but with negative sentinel lymph node, 540 patients underwent US of superficial lymph nodes. The inclusion criteria for CEUS consisted of both major signs (absence of the echogenic hilus, round shape, and peripheral capsular vascularity) and minor ones (the presence of focal cortical thickening). The diagnostic capability was evaluated by comparing the cytological findings with the enhancement pattern on CEUS.€Š Results: US in combination with CEUS correctly classified 534/540 patients. CEUS applied to lymph nodes with focal cortical thickening on grayscale US confirmed great sensitivity (0.98) and specificity (0.99) but above all, it showed a markedly improved accuracy of 0.99. The likelihood ratios confirmed the good performance of the methods used. Conclusion: CEUS increases the diagnostic accuracy of US in the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant LNs but it also allows us, when possible, to avoid unnecessary invasive operations such as LN FNAC. Moreover, CEUS may guide FNAC in the case of focal cortical thickening on the basis of hypoperfusion, with a reduction in the number of false negatives and much earlier detection of nodal metastatic foci. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart. New York.

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