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Leibowitz S.G.,National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory | Comeleo R.L.,National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory | Wigington P.J.,National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory | Weaver C.P.,National Center for Environmental Assessment | And 3 more authors.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2014

Classification can allow for evaluations of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to evaluate vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales in the state of Oregon. The HL classification has five components: climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability. We evaluate changes when the 1971-2000 HL climate indices are recalculated using 2041-2070 simulation results from the ECHAM (European Centre HAMburg) and PCM (Parallel Climate Model) climate models with the A2, A1b, and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in climate class were modest (4-18%) statewide. However, there were major changes in seasonality class for five of the six realizations (excluding PCM-B1): Oregon shifts from being 13% snow-dominated to 4-6% snow-dominated under these five realizations, representing a 56-68% reduction in snowmelt-dominated area. At the basin scale, simulated changes for the Siletz Basin, in Oregon's Coast Range, include a small switch from very wet to wet climate, with no change in seasonality. However, there is a modest increase in fall and winter water due to increased precipitation. For the Sandy Basin, on the western slope of the Cascades, HL climate class does not change, but there are major changes in seasonality, especially for areas with low aquifer permeability, which experiences a 100% loss of spring seasonality. This would reduce summer baseflow, but effects could potentially be mitigated by streamflow buffering effects provided by groundwater in the high aquifer permeability portions of the upper Sandy. The Middle Fork John Day Basin (MFJD), in northeastern Oregon, is snowmelt-dominated. The basin experiences a net loss of wet and moist climate area, along with an increase in dry climate area. The MFJD also experiences major shifts from spring to winter seasonality, representing a 20-60% reduction in snowmelt-dominated area. Altered seasonality and/or magnitude of seasonal streamflows could potentially affect survival, growth and reproduction of salmonids in these watersheds, with the greatest effects projected for the MFJD. A major strength of the HL approach is that results can be applied to similarly classified, ungaged basins. Information resulting from such evaluations can help inform management responses to climate change at regional and basin scales without requiring detailed modeling efforts. © Author(s) 2014.


Smith P.,University of Aberdeen | Davis S.J.,University of California at Irvine | Creutzig F.,Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change | Creutzig F.,TU Berlin | And 43 more authors.
Nature Climate Change | Year: 2016

To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.


Tilmes C.,Us Global Change Research Program
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) | Year: 2012

Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.


Ramapriyan H.K.,Science Systems And Applications Inc. | Goldstein J.C.,ICF International | Goldstein J.C.,Us Global Change Research Program | Hua H.,California Institute of Technology | And 3 more authors.
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) | Year: 2016

Information quality is of paramount importance to science. Accurate, scientifically vetted and statistically meaningful and, ideally, reproducible information engenders scientific trust and research opportunities. Therefore, so-called Highly Influential Scientific Assessments (HISA) such as the U.S. Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) undergo a very rigorous process to ensure transparency and credibility. As an activity to support the transparency of such reports, the U.S. Global Change Research Program has developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS). Specifically related to the transparency of NCA3, a recent activity was carried out to trace the provenance as completely as possible for all figures in the NCA3 report that predominantly used NASA data. This paper discusses lessons learned from this activity that traces the provenance of NASA figures in a major HISA-class pdf report. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.


Ma X.,Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute | Zheng J.G.,Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute | Goldstein J.C.,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research | Goldstein J.C.,Us Global Change Research Program | And 10 more authors.
Environmental Modelling and Software | Year: 2014

The National Climate Assessment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) analyzes and presents the impacts of climate change on the United States. The provenance information in the assessment is important because the assessment findings are of great public and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology, we developed information models and ontology to represent the content structure of the recent National Climate Assessment draft report and its associated provenance information. We tested the ontology by using it in pilot systems serving information about instances of chapters, scientific findings, figures, tables, images, datasets, references, people, and organizations, etc. in the draft report, as well as interrelationships among those instances. The results successfully help users trace provenance in the draft report, such as finding all the journal articles from which a figure in the report was derived. The provenance information in our work was maintained in the context of the "Web of Data". In addition to the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to retrieve and utilize the provenance information. Our work is part of a Global Change Information System coordinated by the USGCRP that will eventually cover provenance information for the entire scope of global change research. Such a system will greatly increase understanding, credibility and trust in the global change research and foster reproducibility of scientific results and conclusions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

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