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Gebretsadik Y.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Fant C.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Strzepek K.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Arndt C.,UNU WIDER
Applied Energy | Year: 2016

The present study develops a reliability assessment method of wind resource using optimum reservoir target power operations that maximizes the firm generation of integrated wind and hydropower. A combination of water resources model for a system of reservoirs that implements a demand-priority based linear programing algorithm and a single node power grid system model is implemented on hourly time step. This model was accompanied by a global genetic algorithm solver to determine optimum operation targets for each storage reservoir aiming at maximizing the 90th percentile power generation produced by the integration of wind and hydro over the entire simulation period.This model was applied on the reservoir storages and hydropower system in the Zambezi river basin to test if the storage reservoirs could be efficiently be used to offset wind power intermittence in South Africa subjected to the different physical and policy constraints. Based on the optimized target operation and hourly annual real data for the year 2010, the water resources system and power interconnection system were simulated together to assess the maximum firm generation of power as a result of the new wind and hydro combination target for storage hydropower plants.The result obtained indicates that high regulation of wind and hydro can be achieved as a result of combined operation and showed 45% increase in the level of wind penetration in South Africa's power system over the reference scenario. The result also indicated a reduced level of coal power utilization and less cycling requirement. This will have a positive outcome in terms contributing to South Africa's goal toward reducing greenhouse gas emission and the efforts to build green energy supply and resilience to the impacts of climate change. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Development Policy Review | Year: 2010

Free trade agreements have become a central feature of many developing countries' growth strategies, encouraged by an evaluation literature that quantifies their positive impact on trade. However, trade gains come at the cost of policy space, particularly when the partner is a developed country, and though this cost has been acknowledged, its impact has not been explored. This article seeks to address this oversight by detailing changes to the domestic policy environment from the participation of a developing country in a US-anchored FTA and evaluating whether the resulting policy regime is flexible enough to enable a developmental government to pursue activities associated with industrialisation. © The Author 2010. Journal compilation © 2010 Overseas Development Institute.

Addison T.,UNU WIDER | Ghoshray A.,Northumbria University | Stamatogiannis M.P.,University of Bath
Journal of Agricultural Economics | Year: 2016

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub-Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural non-linear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub-Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) will lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes. © 2016 The Agricultural Economics Society.

Arndt C.,Copenhagen University | Farmer W.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Strzepek K.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Thurlow J.,UNU WIDER
Review of Development Economics | Year: 2012

Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Addison T.,UNU WIDER | Arndt C.,Copenhagen University | Tarp F.,Copenhagen University
African Development Review | Year: 2011

The global economy is passing through a period of profound change. The immediate concern is with the financial crisis, originating in the North. The South is affected via reduced demand and lower prices for their exports, reduced private financial flows and falling remittances. This is the first crisis. Simultaneously, climate change remains unchecked, with the growth in greenhouse gas emissions exceeding previous estimates. This is the second crisis. Finally, malnutrition and hunger are on the rise, propelled by the recent inflation in global food prices. This constitutes the third crisis. These three crises interact to undermine the prosperity of present and future generations. Each has implications for international aid and underline the need for concerted action. © 2011 UNU-WIDER. African Development Review © 2011 African Development Bank.

Markussen T.,Copenhagen University | Tarp F.,UNU WIDER | Van Den Broeck K.,Copenhagen University
World Development | Year: 2011

Studies of land property rights usually focus on tenure security and transfer rights. Rights to determine how to use the land are regularly ignored. However, user rights are often limited. Relying on a unique Vietnamese panel data set at both household and plot levels, we show that crop choice restrictions are widespread and prevent crop diversification. Restrictions do not decrease household income, but restricted households work harder, and there are indications that they are supplied with higher quality inputs. Our findings are consistent with the view that it is possible to intervene effectively in agricultural production to promote output and food security. Nevertheless, potential benefits of a more diversified crop pattern must be carefully considered in a period where global food markets are in turmoil. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

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