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Bonn, Germany

Warner K.,UNU EHS
Global Environmental Change

Claims have been made that global environmental change could drive anywhere from 50 to almost 700 million people to migrate by 2050. These claims belie the complexity of the multi-causal relationship between coupled social-ecological systems and human mobility, yet they have fueled the debate about " environmentally induced migration" Empirical evidence, notably from a 23 case study scoping study supported by the European Commission, confirms that currently environmental factors are one of many variables driving migration. Fieldwork reveals a multifaceted landscape of patterns and contexts for migration linked to rapid- and slow-onset environmental change today. Migration and displacement are part of a spectrum of possible responses to environmental change. Some forms of environmentally induced migration may be adaptive, while other forms of forced migration and displacement may indicate a failure of the social-ecological system to adapt. This diversity of migration potentials linked to environmental change presents challenges to institutions and policies not designed to cope with the impacts of complex causality, surprises and uncertainty about social-ecological thresholds, and the possibility of environmental and migration patterns recombining into a new patterns. The paper highlights fieldwork on rapid- and slow-onset environmentally induced migration in Mozambique, Vietnam, and Egypt. Current governance frameworks for human mobility are partially equipped to manage new forms of human mobility, but that new complementary modes of governance will be necessary. The paper concludes with challenges for governance of environmentally induced migration under increasing complexity, as well as opportunities to enhance resilience of both migrants and those who remain behind. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Kongko W.,UNU EHS | Kongko W.,Leibniz University of Hanover | Schlurmann T.,Leibniz University of Hanover
Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference

This study is to validate the tsunami model with extensive field observation data gathered from the 2006 Java tsunami. In the relevant study area, where highly-resolved geometric data were recently made available and other related posttsunami field data have been collected, the tsunami maximum run-up onto land and its marigram have been simulated and evaluated. Several plausible tsunami sources are proposed to adequately mimic the 2006 Java tsunami by including the influence of low rigidity material in the accretionary prism as well as its single-multi fault source type's effect. Since it has a significant role on tsunami excitation, this parameter and other assumptions are then employed to study an estimated set of reasonable maximum magnitude earthquake-tsunami scenario and projected inundation areas for probable future tsunami on the South Java coastline. In a final step tentative technical mitigation measures are proposed and assessed to deal with adequate coastal protection issues by means of soft (greenbelt, etc.) and hard engineering (sand dunes, etc.) approaches. Their effectiveness in terms of reducing inundation area is assessed and general recommendations for coastal planning authorities are dealt with. Source

van Ruijven B.J.,NCAR | Levy M.A.,CIESIN | Agrawal A.,University of Michigan | Biermann F.,VU University Amsterdam | And 21 more authors.
Climatic Change

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013. Source

Lovholt F.,Norwegian Geotechnical Institute | Setiadi N.J.,UNU EHS | Birkmann J.,UNU EHS | Harbitz C.B.,Norwegian Geotechnical Institute | And 4 more authors.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

With over 220,000 fatalities, the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was one of the deadliest natural hazard events ever, and represents a landmark in disaster risk reduction governance in several ways. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation. For example, the Hyogo Framework Agreement was a direct result of this event. Since December 2004, Indonesia, Samoa, Chile and Japan were hit by altogether six destructive tsunamis in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011.This article looks into the progress (or lack thereof) made in tsunami risk reduction at the local level during the past ten years, with focus on the densely populated coastal regions of Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The experience from other countries, as well as the progress made in the state of the art for assessment of tsunami hazard, vulnerability, exposure and risk are also summarized. In addition, extensive new warning systems enabling a rapid assessment of the potential coastal impact of a tsunami have been developed and implemented. However, the experience from the tsunami events in October 2010 in Indonesia and March 2011 in Japan clearly demonstrated that the tsunami risk mitigation measures implemented to date are far from adequate. The article also examines the progress in assessing and factoring in vulnerability aspects in tsunami risk reduction, highlighted through two case studies in Padang (Indonesia) and Galle (Sri Lanka). In this regard, societal awareness and behavioural response to tsunamis are addressed. Recommendations about how the improved knowledge about tsunami hazard, vulnerability and exposure assessment gained over the past decade could be better implemented into tsunami risk reduction measures are provided at the end of the article. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Source

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