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Xing Z.,Harbin Engineering University | Xing Z.,Universities in Heilongjiang Province | Rui X.,Hohai University | Fu Q.,Harbin Engineering University | And 2 more authors.
Chinese Geographical Science | Year: 2011

A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hydrologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simulated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision. © 2011 Science Press, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS and Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Wang Y.,Northeast Petroleum University | Wang Y.,State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base Jointly constructed by Heilongjiang Province | Wang Y.,Universities in Heilongjiang Province | Yan M.,Northeast Petroleum University | And 8 more authors.
Petroleum Exploration and Development | Year: 2015

From the deformation characteristics of two walls of a fault caused by fault activities, the activation of faults in the critical moment of oil and gas accumulation (structural inversion period) was analyzed to determine the source faults in the Upper Cretaceous Putaohua oil layer of the Sanzhao sag in Songliao Basin. Based on the previous classification and research results of activity patterns of the faults in the Sanzhao sag, the analysis of the structural deformation characteristics during the deposition of the 2nd and 3rd members of the Upper Cretaceous Nenjiang Formation and the inversion reveals that the feature of cutting to T06 reflection layer (bottom interface of the third member of the Nenjiang Formation) can not be taken as the basis to judge whether the faults were activated during the inversion or not. But during the structural inversion period, the structural deformation caused by faults would lead to fault-propagation inverted folds and fault-bend inverted folds, which would further lead to obvious deformation differences between hanging walls and foot walls of faults, this can be taken as the basis to determine if the faults were activated or not in the inversion period, and then the source faults of the Putaohua oil layer can be determined. Furthermore the source faults can be divided into two kinds, concealed faults and penetrating faults, according to if the source faults cut through layers of inversion period or not. These two kinds of source faults show more obvious control over the planar oil distribution in the Putaohua layer than the previous study results. © 2015 Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina.

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