Hertig E.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a |
Paxian A.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a |
Vogt G.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a |
Seubert S.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a |
And 2 more authors.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift | Year: 2012
Extreme precipitation events in theMediterranean area have been defined by different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation for autumn and winter: the number of events exceeding the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, percentage, total amount, and mean daily intensity of precipitation from these events. Results from statistical downscaling applying canonical correlation analysis as well as from dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model REMO are mapped for the 1961-1990 baseline period as well as for the magnitude of change for the future time slice 2021-2050 in relation to the former period. Direct output of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM5 is used as an additional source of information. A qualitative comparison of the two different downscaling techniques indicates that under the present climate both the dynamical and the statistical techniques have skill to reproduce extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area. A good representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events arises from the statistical downscaling approach, whereas the intensity of such events is adequately modelled by the dynamical downscaling. Concerning the change of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area until the mid-21st century, it is projected that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will decrease in most parts of the Mediterranean area in autumn and winter. The change of the mean intensity of such events shows a rather heterogeneous pattern with intensity increases in winter most likely at topographical elevations exposed to the West, where the uplift of humid air profits by the increase of atmospheric moisture under climate change conditions. For the precipitation total from events exceeding the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, widespread decreases are indicated in autumn, whereas in winter increases occur over the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and southern France, and reductions over southern Turkey, the eastern Mediterranean area, parts of Italy and some North African regions. © 2012 by Gebruder Borntraeger.
Hertig E.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a |
Jacobeit J.,Universitaetsstrasse 1a
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2013
In the present study, nonstationarities in predictor-predictand relationships within the framework of statistical downscaling are investigated. In this context, a novel validation approach is introduced in which nonstationarities are explicitly taken into account. Themethod is based on results from running calibration periods. The (non)overlaps of the bootstrap confidence interval of the mean model performance (derived by averaging the performances of all calibration/verification periods) and the bootstrap confidence intervals of the individual model errors are used to identify (non)stationary model performance. The specified procedure is demonstrated for mean daily precipitation in the Mediterranean area using the bias to assess model skill. A combined circulation-based and transfer function-based approach is employed as a downscaling technique. In this context, large-scale seasonal atmospheric regimes, synoptic-scale daily circulation patterns, and their within-type characteristics, are related to daily station-based precipitation. Results show that nonstationarities are due to varying predictors-precipitation relationships of specific circulation configurations. In this regard, frequency changes of circulation patterns can damp or increase the effects of nonstationary relationships. Within the scope of assessing future precipitation changes under increased greenhouse warming conditions, the identification and analysis of nonstationarities in the predictors-precipitation relationships leads to a substantiated selection of specific statistical downscaling models for the future assessments. Using RCP4.5 scenario assumptions, strong increases of daily precipitation become apparent over large parts of the western and northern Mediterranean regions in winter. In spring, summer, and autumn, decreases of precipitation until the end of the 21st century clearly dominate over the entire Mediterranean area. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.