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News Article | May 11, 2017
Site: www.eurekalert.org

BOULDER, Colo. -- Since the mid-1980s, the percentage of precipitation that becomes streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande watershed has fallen more steeply than at any point in at least 445 years, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While this decline was driven in part by the transition from an unusually wet period to an unusually dry period, rising temperatures deepened the trend, the researchers said. The study paints a detailed picture of how temperature has affected the runoff ratio -- the amount of snow and rain that actually makes it into the river -- over time, and the findings could help improve water supply forecasts for the Rio Grande, which is a source of water for an estimated 5 million people. The study results also suggest that runoff ratios in the Upper Rio Grande and other neighboring snow-fed watersheds, such as the Colorado River Basin, could decline further as the climate continues to warm. "The most important variable for predicting streamflow is how much it has rained or snowed," said NCAR scientist Flavio Lehner, lead author of the study. "But when we looked back hundreds of years, we found that temperature has also had an important influence -- which is not currently factored into water supply forecasts. We believe that incorporating temperature in future forecasts will increase their accuracy, not only in general but also in the face of climate change." The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was funded by the Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor. Co-authors of the paper are Eugene Wahl, of NOAA; Andrew Wood, of NCAR; and Douglas Blatchford and Dagmar Llewellyn, both of the Bureau of Reclamation. Born in the Rocky Mountains of southern Colorado, the Rio Grande cuts south across New Mexico before hooking east and forming the border between Texas and Mexico. Snow piles up on the peaks surrounding the headwaters throughout the winter, and in spring the snowpack begins to melt and feed the river. The resulting streamflow is used both by farmers and cities, including Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas, and water users depend on the annual water supply forecasts to determine who gets how much of the river. The forecast is also used to determine whether additional water needs to be imported from the San Juan River, on the other side of the Continental Divide, or pumped from groundwater. Current operational streamflow forecasts depend on estimates of the amount of snow and rain that have fallen in the basin, and they assume that a particular amount of precipitation and snowpack will always yield a particular amount of streamflow. In recent years, those forecasts have tended to over-predict how much water will be available, leading to over-allocation of the river. In an effort to understand this changing dynamic, Lehner and his colleagues investigated how the relationship between precipitation and streamflow, known as the runoff ratio, has evolved over time. Precipitation vs. streamflow: Tree rings tell a new story The scientists used tree ring-derived streamflow data from outside of the Upper Rio Grande basin to reconstruct estimates of precipitation within the watershed stretching back to 1571. Then they combined this information with a separate streamflow reconstruction within the basin for the same period. Because these two reconstructions were independent, it allowed the research team to also estimate runoff ratio for each year: the higher the ratio, the greater the share of precipitation that was actually converted into streamflow. "For the first time, we were able to take these two quantities and use them to reconstruct runoff ratios over the past 445 years," Wahl said. They found that the runoff ratio varies significantly from year to year and even decade to decade. The biggest factor associated with this variation was precipitation. When it snows less over the mountains in the headwaters of the Rio Grande, not only is less water available to become streamflow, but the runoff ratio also decreases. In other words, a smaller percentage of the snowpack becomes streamflow during drier years. But the scientists also found that another factor affected the runoff ratio: temperature. Over the last few centuries, the runoff ratio was reduced when temperatures were warmer. And the influence of temperature strengthened during drier years: When the snowpack was shallow, warm temperatures reduced the runoff ratio more than when the snowpack was deep, further exacerbating drought conditions. The low runoff ratios seen in dry years were two and a half to three times more likely when temperatures were also warmer. "The effect of temperature on runoff ratio is relatively small compared to precipitation," Lehner said. "But because its greatest impact is when conditions are dry, a warmer year can make an already bad situation much worse." A number of factors may explain the influence of temperature on runoff ratio. When it's warmer, plants take up more water from the soil and more water can evaporate directly into the air. Additionally, warmer temperatures can lead snow to melt earlier in the season, when the days are shorter and the angle of the sun is lower. This causes the snow to melt more slowly, allowing the meltwater to linger in the soil and giving plants added opportunity to use it. The extensive reconstruction of historical runoff ratio in the Upper Rio Grande also revealed that the decline in runoff ratio over the last three decades is unprecedented in the historical record. The 1980s were an unusually wet period for the Upper Rio Grande, while the 2000s and 2010s have been unusually dry. Pair that with an increase in temperatures over the same period, and the decline in runoff ratio between 1986 and 2015 was unlike any other stretch of that length in the last 445 years. This new understanding of how temperature influences runoff ratio could help improve water supply forecasts, which do not currently consider whether the upcoming months are expected to be hotter or cooler than average. The authors are now assessing the value of incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts into water supply forecasts to account for these temperature influences. The study complements a multi-year NCAR project funded by the Bureau of Reclamation and the Army Corps of Engineers that is evaluating prospects for enhancing seasonal streamflow forecasts for reservoir management. "Forecast users and stakeholders are increasingly raising questions about the reliability of forecasting techniques if climate is changing our hydrology," said Wood, who led the effort. "This study helps us think about ways to upgrade one of our oldest approaches -- statistical water supply forecasting -- to respond to recent trends in temperature. Our current challenge is to find ways to make sure the lessons of this work can benefit operational streamflow forecasts." Because the existing forecasting models were calibrated on conditions in the late 1980s and 1990s, it's not surprising that they over-predicted streamflow in the drier period since 2000, Lehner said. "These statistical models often assume that the climate is stable," Lehner said. "It's an assumption that sometimes works, but statistical forecasting techniques will struggle with any strong changes in hydroclimatology from decade to decade, such as the one we have just experienced." Lehner is a Postdoc Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) fellow, which is part of the Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS). CPAESS is a community program of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). UCAR manages NCAR under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Title: Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective Authors: Flavio Lehner, Eugene R. Wahl, Andrew W. Wood, Douglas B. Blatchford, and Dagmar Llewellyn Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073253


Donner L.J.,Princeton University | O'Brien T.A.,University of California at Davis | Rieger D.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Vogel B.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Cooke W.F.,UCAR
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2016

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations that do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity. © 2016 Author(s).


Scientific understanding of the role of humans in influencing and altering the global climate has been evolving for over a century. That understanding is now extremely advanced, combining hundreds of years of observations of many different climatic variables, millions of years of paleoclimatic evidence of past natural climatic variations, extended application of fundamental physical, chemical, and biological processes, and the most sophisticated computer modeling ever conducted. There is no longer any reasonable doubt that humans are altering the climate, that those changes will grow in scope and severity in the future, and that the economic, ecological, and human health consequences will be severe. While remaining scientific uncertainties are still being studied and analyzed, the state of the science has for several decades been sufficient to support implementing local, national, and global policies to address growing climate risks. This is the conclusion of scientific studies, syntheses, and reports to policymakers extending back decades. Because of the strength of the science, and the depth of the consensus about climate change, the scientific community has worked hard to clearly and consistently present the state of understanding to the public and policymakers to help them make informed decisions. The scientific community does this in various ways. Individual scientists speak out, presenting scientific results to journalists and the public. Scientists and scientific organizations prepare, debate, and publish scientific statements and declarations based on their expertise and concerns. And national scientific organizations, especially the formal “Academies of Sciences,” prepare regular reports on climate issues that are syntheses of all relevant climate science and knowledge. The number and scope of these statements is truly impressive. Not a single major scientific organization or national academy of science on earth denies that the climate is changing, that humans are responsible, and that some form of action should be taken to address the risks to people and the planet. This consensus is not to be taken lightly. Indeed, this consensus is an extraordinarily powerful result given the contentious nature of science and the acclaim that accrues to scientists who find compelling evidence that overthrows an existing paradigm (as Galileo, Darwin, Einstein, Wegener, and others did in their fields). In a peculiar twist, some have tried to argue that acceptance of the strength of the evidence and the massive consensus in the geoscience community about human-caused climate change is simply “argument from consensus” or “argument from authority” – a classic potential “logical fallacy.” Indeed, the mere fact that nearly 100 percent of climate and geoscience professions believe humans are changing the climate does not guarantee that the belief is correct. But arguing that something is false simply because there is a strong consensus for it is an even worse logical fallacy, especially when the consensus is based on deep, extensive, and constantly tested scientific evidence. In fact, this false argument has a name: the Galileo Gambit. It is used by those who deny well-established scientific principles such as the theory of climate change as follows: Because Galileo was mocked and criticized for his views by a majority, but later shown to be right, current minority views that are mocked and criticized must also be right. The obvious flaw in the Galileo Gambit is that being criticized for one’s views does not correlate with being right – especially when the criticism is based on scientific evidence. Galileo was right because the scientific evidence supported him, not because he was mocked and criticized. The late professor Carl Sagan addressed this use of the Galileo Gambit in a humorous way when he noted: These statements and declarations about climate change by the world’s leading scientific organizations represent the most compelling summary of the state of knowledge and concern about the global geophysical changes now underway, and they provide the foundation and rationale for actions now being debated and implemented around the world. The world ignores them at its peril. Here, based on information available as of early January 2017, is a synthesis, listing, and links for these public positions and declarations. These statements are summarized below for more than 140 of the planet’s national academies and top scientific health, geosciences, biological, chemical, physical, agricultural, and engineering organizations. Each statement is archived online as noted in the links. Abbreviated sections of statements only are presented, but readers should consult the full statements for context and content. Also, scientific organizations and committees periodically update, revise, edit, and re-issue position statements. Please send me any corrections, updates, additions, and changes. The AAN is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as “climate change,” are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats… The social foundations of children’s mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children… Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge… [The AAP is also a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/] The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now. [The AAAS has also signed onto more recent letters on climate from an array of scientific organizations, including the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] There is widespread scientific agreement that the world’s climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin. Consequently, there is a critical need to improve capacity to identify, prevent, and respond to climate-related threats.  The following statements present the American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians (AAWV) position on climate change, wildlife diseases, and wildlife health…. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) notes that human impacts on the climate system include increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which is significantly contributing to the warming of the global climate. The climate system is complex, however, making it difficult to predict detailed outcomes of human-induced change: there is as yet no definitive theory for translating greenhouse gas emissions into forecasts of regional weather, hydrology, or response of the biosphere. As the AGU points out, our ability to predict global climate change, and to forecast its regional impacts, depends directly on improved models and observations. The American Astronomical Society (AAS) joins the AGU in calling for peer-reviewed climate research to inform climate-related policy decisions, and, as well, to provide a basis for mitigating the harmful effects of global change and to help communities adapt and become resilient to extreme climatic events. In endorsing the “Human Impacts on Climate” statement, the AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change. Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and absorbing aerosol particles. (IPCC, 2007) Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems. (NRC, 2010a) The potential threats are serious and actions are required to mitigate climate change risks and to adapt to deleterious climate change impacts that probably cannot be avoided. (NRC, 2010b, c) This statement reviews key probable climate change impacts and recommends actions required to mitigate or adapt to current and anticipated consequences. …comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem. This sober conclusion has been recently reconfirmed by an in-depth set of studies focused on “America’s Climate Choices” (ACC) conducted by the U.S. National Academies (NRC, 2010a, b, c, d). The ACC studies, performed by independent and highly respected teams of scientists, engineers, and other skilled professionals, reached the same general conclusions that were published in the latest comprehensive assessment conducted by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)… The range of observed and potential climate change impacts identified by the ACC assessment include a warmer climate with more extreme weather events, significant sea level rise, more constrained fresh water sources, deterioration or loss of key land and marine ecosystems, and reduced food resources— many of which may pose serious public health threats. (NRC, 2010a) The effects of an unmitigated rate of climate change on key Earth system components, ecological systems, and human society over the next 50 years are likely to be severe and possibly irreversible on century time scales… [The ACS has also signed onto more recent letters on climate from an array of scientific organizations, including the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] THAT: The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe. THAT: The ACPM staff and appropriate committees continue to explore opportunities to address this matter, including sessions at Preventive Medicine conferences and the development of a policy position statement as well as other modes of communicating this issue to the ACPM membership. [The ACPM is also a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/] Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes. Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat‐trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase. Human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate system for millennia. Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large‐scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences… [The AGU has also signed onto more recent letters on climate from an array of scientific organizations, including the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] [The AIBS is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003. AGU is one of ten Member Societies of the American Institute of Physics. The statement follows: Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth’s climate. These effects add to natural influences that have been present over Earth’s history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century. Human impacts on the climate system include increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and their substitutes, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), air pollution, increasing concentrations of airborne particles, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster than at any time in Earth’s history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects… The ALA is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ If physicians want evidence of climate change, they may well find it in their own offices. Patients are presenting with illnesses that once happened only in warmer areas. Chronic conditions are becoming aggravated by more frequent and extended heat waves. Allergy and asthma seasons are getting longer. Spates of injuries are resulting from more intense ice storms and snowstorms. Scientific evidence shows that the world’s climate is changing and that the results have public health consequences. The American Medical Association is working to ensure that physicians and others in health care understand the rise in climate-related illnesses and injuries so they can prepare and respond to them. The Association also is promoting environmentally responsible practices that would reduce waste and energy consumption. Amicus Brief filed before the Supreme Court in support of the Clean Power Plan. Failure to uphold the Clean Power Plan would undermine [the] EPA’s ability to carry out its legal obligation to regulate carbon emissions that endanger human health and would negatively impact the health of current and future generations. Carbon emissions are a significant driver of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change and consequently harm human health. Direct impacts from the changing climate include health-related illness, declining air quality and increased respiratory and cardiovascular illness. Changes in climate also facilitate the migration of mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, malaria and most recently the Zika Virus. “In surveys conducted by three separate U.S. medical professional societies,” the brief said, “a significant majority of surveyed physicians concurred that climate change is occurring … is having a direct impact on the health of their patients, and that physicians anticipate even greater climate-driven adverse human health impacts in the future.” [This statement is considered in force until August 2017 unless superseded by a new statement issued by the AMS Council before this date.] …Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence.  Observations show increases in globally averaged air and ocean temperatures, as well as widespread melting of snow and ice and rising globally averaged sea level. Surface temperature data for Earth as a whole, including readings over both land and ocean, show an increase of about 0.8°C (1.4°F) over the period 1901-2010 and about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the period 1979–2010 (the era for which satellite-based temperature data are routinely available). Due to natural variability, not every year is warmer than the preceding year globally. Nevertheless, all of the 10 warmest years in the global temperature records up to 2011 have occurred since 1997, with 2005 and 2010 being the warmest two years in more than a century of global records. The warming trend is greatest in northern high latitudes and over land. In the U.S., most of the observed warming has occurred in the West and in Alaska; for the nation as a whole, there have been twice as many record daily high temperatures as record daily low temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century… There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate system and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved monitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and water availability… Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy discussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitigate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change and the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same time, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should include adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life. [The AIBS is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] Earth’s changing climate is a critical issue and poses the risk of significant environmental, social and economic disruptions around the globe. While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century. Although the magnitudes of future effects are uncertain, human influences on the climate are growing. The potential consequences of climate change are great and the actions taken over the next few decades will determine human influences on the climate for centuries. As summarized in the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there continues to be significant progress in climate science. In particular, the connection between rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased warming of the global climate system is more compelling than ever. Nevertheless, as recognized by Working Group 1 of the IPCC, scientific challenges remain in our abilities to observe, interpret, and project climate changes. To better inform societal choices, the APS urges sustained research in climate science. The APS reiterates its 2007 call to support actions that will reduce the emissions, and ultimately the concentration, of greenhouse gases as well as increase the resilience of society to a changing climate, and to support research on technologies that could reduce the climate impact of human activities. … The APA is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ [This policy builds upon and replaces existing policies 20078 (Addressing the Urgent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment) and 9510 (Global Climate Change)] Public Health Opportunities to Address the Health Effects of Climate Change Climate change poses major threats to human health, human and animal populations, ecological stability, and human social, financial, and political stability and well-being. Observed health impacts of climate change include increased heat-related morbidity and mortality, expanded ranges and frequency of infectious disease outbreaks, malnutrition, trauma, violence and political conflict, mental health issues, and loss of community and social connections. Certain populations will experience disproportionate negative effects, including pregnant women, children, the elderly, marginalized groups such as racial and ethnic minorities, outdoor workers, those with chronic diseases, and those in economically disadvantaged communities. Climate change poses significant ethical challenges as well as challenges to global and health equity. The economic risks of inaction may be significant, yet many strategies to combat climate change offer near- and long-term co-benefits to health, producing cost savings that could offset implementation costs. At present, there are major political barriers to adopting strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Recognizing the urgency of the issue and importance of the public health role, APHA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and others have developed resources and tools to help support public health engagement. APHA calls for individual, community, national, and global action to address the health risks posed by climate change. The public health community has critical roles to play, including advocating for action, especially among policymakers; engaging in health prevention and preparedness efforts; conducting surveillance and research on climate change and health; and educating public health professionals. [The APHA is also a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/] [The APHA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] Letter to EOS of the Council of the AQA The available scientific evidence clearly shows that the Earth on average is becoming warmer… Few credible scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. The first government led U.S. Climate Change Science Program synthesis and assessment report supports the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity. In 2003, the ASM issued a policy report in which they recommend “reducing net anthropogenic CO emissions to the atmosphere” and “minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of” atmospheric gases: “Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago… as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change. Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth’s history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend. Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change.” A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases in ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The potential related impacts of climate change on the ability of agricultural systems, which include soil and water resources, to provide food, feed, fiber, and fuel, and maintenance of ecosystem services (e.g., water supply and habitat for crop landraces, wild relatives, and pollinators) as well as the integrity of the environment, are major concerns. Around the world and in the United States (US), agriculture—which is comprised of field, vegetable, and tree crops, as well as livestock production—constitutes a major land use which influences global ecosystems. Globally, crop production occupies approximately 1.8 Billion (B) hectares out of a total terrestrial land surface of about 13.5 B hectares. In addition, animal production utilizes grasslands, rangelands, and savannas, which altogether cover about a quarter of the Earth’s land. Even in 2010, agriculture remains the most basic and common human occupation on the planet and a major contributor to human well-being. Changes in climate are already affecting the sustainability of agricultural systems and disrupting production. [The May 2011 statement was also signed by the Crop Science Society of America and the Soil Science Society of America.] [The ASoA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] There is strong evidence that the climate is changing and will continue to change.  Climate scientists project that there will be substantial increases in temperature with related increases in atmospheric water vapor and increases in extreme precipitation amounts and intensities in most geographic regions as a result of climate change.  However, while there is clear evidence of a changing climate, understanding the significance of climate change at the temporal and spatial scales as it relates to engineering practice is more difficult. There is an increasing demand for engineers to address future climate change into project design criteria; however, current practices and rules governing such practices do not adequately address concerns associated with climate change… Climate change poses a potentially serious impact on worldwide water resources, energy production and use, agriculture, forestry, coastal development and resources, flood control and public infrastructure… The ASIH is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The ASN is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf [The ASPB is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] Adopted by the ASA Board of Directors The American Statistical Association (ASA) recently convened a workshop of leading atmospheric scientists and statisticians involved in climate change research. The goal of this workshop was to identify a consensus on the role of statistical science in current assessments of global warming and its impacts. Of particular interest to this workshop was the recently published Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), endorsed by more than 100 governments and drawing on the expertise of a large portion of the climate science community. Through a series of meetings spanning several years, IPCC drew in leading experts and assessed the relevant literature in the geosciences and related disciplines as it relates to climate change. The Fourth Assessment Report finds that “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level. … Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. … Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns. [The ASA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] After people, water is our most critical and strategic natural resource, yet the U.S. lack a national strategy for water resources management. In addition, Americans are the world’s largest water consumers. Threats of an aging infrastructure, climate change and population growth are so significant that the nation can no longer afford to postpone action. It’s imperative that a focused effort be articulated and initiated to create and demonstrate strategies to sustain U.S. water resources. The country’s future growth and prosperity depend on it. The ATS is also a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The ASLO is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The ATBC is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The AERC is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The AAFA is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming… It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming. There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world’s experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth’s atmosphere… Given the observed damage caused by a temperature increase of ~1°C above pre-industrial levels, we urge all possible actions to keep future warming below the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The following proposed initiatives will act to reduce the severity of climate-inflicted damage on reefs, helping to avoid total ecological collapse. The ACRS strongly supports the following proposed actions… The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal… Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth’s climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth… Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA recognises the latest findings regarding the science of climate change, the role of humans, past observations and future projections. The consequences of climate change have serious direct and indirect, observed and projected health impacts both globally and in Australia. There is inequity in the distribution of these health impacts both within and between countries, with some groups being particularly vulnerable. In recognition of these issues surrounding climate change and health, the AMA believes that: Global climate has changed substantially. Global climate change and global warming are real and observable… Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean globally, and in Australia. It is now certain that the human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contribute significantly to observed warming. Further it is extremely likely that these human activities are responsible for most of the observed global warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect…. Our climate is very likely to continue to change as a result of human activity. Global temperature increases are already set to continue until at least the middle of this century even if emissions were reduced to zero. The magnitude of warming and related changes can be limited depending on the total amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases ultimately emitted as a result of human activities; future climate scenarios depend critically on future changes in emissions… BioQUEST is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The BSA is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf We, the members of the Board of Trustees of CFCAS and Canadian climate science leaders from the public and academic sectors in Canada, concur with The Joint Science Academies statement that “climate change is real” and note that the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment concluded that Arctic temperatures have risen at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world over the past few decades. Furthermore, we endorse the assessment of climate science undertaken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its conclusion that “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” There is now increasing unambiguous evidence of a changing climate in Canada and around the world… There is an increasing urgency to act on the threat of climate change. Significant steps are needed to stop the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by reducing emissions. Since mitigation measures will become effective only after many years, adaptive strategies as well are of great importance and need to begin now…. …Since the industrial revolution of the early 19th century, human activities have also markedly influenced the climate. This well-documented human-induced change is large and very rapid in comparison to past changes in the Earth’s climate… Even if the human-induced emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere were to cease today, past emissions have committed the world to long-term changes in climate. Carbon dioxide emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels will remain in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, and the slow ocean response to atmospheric warming will cause the climate change to persist even longer. Further CO2 emissions will lead to greater human-induced change in proportion to total cumulative emissions. Meaningful interventions to mitigate climate change require a reduction in emissions. To avoid societally, economically, and ecologically disruptive changes to the Earth’s climate, we will have little choice but to leave much of the unextracted fossil fuel carbon in the ground… The urgent challenges for the global community, and Canadians in particular, are to learn how to adapt to the climate changes to which we are already committed and to develop effective and just responses to avoid further damaging climate change impacts for both present and future generations. The COL is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases in ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The potential related impacts of climate change on the ability of agricultural systems, which include soil and water resources, to provide food, feed, fiber, and fuel, and maintenance of ecosystem services (e.g., water supply and habitat for crop landraces, wild relatives, and pollinators) as well as the integrity of the environment, are major concerns. Around the world and in the United States (US), agriculture—which is comprised of field, vegetable, and tree crops, as well as livestock production—constitutes a major land use which influences global ecosystems. Globally, crop production occupies approximately 1.8 Billion (B) hectares out of a total terrestrial land surface of about 13.5 B hectares. In addition, animal production utilizes grasslands, rangelands, and savannas, which altogether cover about a quarter of the Earth’s land. Even in 2010, agriculture remains the most basic and common human occupation on the planet and a major contributor to human well-being. Changes in climate are already affecting the sustainability of agricultural systems and disrupting production. [The May 2011 Statement was also signed by the American Society of Agronomy and the Soil Science Society of America.] [The CSSA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] Ecosystems are already responding to climate change. Continued warming—some of which is now unavoidable—may impair the ability of many such systems to provide critical resources and services like food, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Buffering against the impacts of climate change will require new strategies to both mitigate the extent of change and adapt to changes that are inevitable. The sooner such strategies are deployed, the more effective they will be in reducing irreversible damage. Ecosystems can be managed to limit and adapt to both the near- and long-term impacts of climate change. Strategies that focus on restoring and maintaining natural ecosystem function (reducing deforestation, for example) are the most prudent; strategies that drastically alter ecosystems may have significant and unpredictable impacts… The Earth is warming— average global temperatures have increased by 0.74°C (1.3°F) in the past 100 years. The scientific community agrees that catastrophic and possibly irreversible environmental change will occur if average global temperatures rise an additional 2°C (3.6°F). Warming to date has already had significant impacts on the Earth and its ecosystems, including increased droughts, rising sea levels, disappearing glaciers, and changes in the distribution and seasonal activities of many species… Most warming seen since the mid 1900s is very likely due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Global emissions have risen rapidly since pre-industrial times, increasing 70% between 1970 and 2004 alone… Even if greenhouse gas emissions stop immediately, global temperatures will continue to rise at least for the next 100 years. Depending on the extent and effectiveness of climate change mitigation strategies, global temperatures could rise 1-6°C (2-10°F) by the end of the 21st century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Swift and significant emissions reductions will be vital in minimizing the impacts of warming… [The ESA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] Engineers Australia accepts the comprehensive scientific basis regarding climate change, the influence of anthropogenic global warming, and that climate change can have very serious community consequences. Engineers are uniquely placed to provide both mitigation and adaptation solutions for this serious global problem, as well as address future advances in climate change science. This Climate Change Policy Statement has been developed to enable organisational governance on the problem, and provide support for members in the discipline and practice of the engineering profession. Building upon a long history of Engineers Australia policy development, and as the largest technically informed professional body in Australia, Engineers Australia advocates that Engineers must act proactively to address climate change as an ecological, social and economic risk… The ESA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the climatic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The above development potentially has dramatic consequences for mankind’s future… The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a significant threat to human civilization. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions come from fossil carbon sources, such as coal, oil, natural gas, limestone and carbonate rocks. Thriving and developing economies currently depend on these resources. Since geologists play a crucial role in their exploration and exploitation, we feel praised by the increasing welfare, but also implicated by the carbon curse. It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly advocates renewable and sustainable energy production, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for increasing energy efficiency. Impacts of ocean acidification may be just as dramatic as those of global warming (resulting from anthropogenic activities on top of natural variability) and the combination of both are likely to exacerbate consequences, resulting in potentially profound changes throughout marine ecosystems and in the services that they provide to humankind… Since the beginning of the industrial revolution the release of carbon dioxide (CO ) from our industrial and agricultural activities has resulted in atmospheric CO  concentrations that have increased from approximately 280 to 385 parts per million (ppm). The atmospheric concentration of CO  is now higher than experienced on Earth for at least the last 800,000 years (direct ice core evidence) and probably the last 25 million years, and is expected to continue to rise at an increasing rate, leading to significant temperature increases in the atmosphere and ocean in the coming decades… Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action. This rather new recognition that, in addition to the impact of CO  as a greenhouse gas on global climate change, OA is a direct consequence of the absorption of anthropogenic CO  emissions, will hopefully help to set in motion an even more stringent CO  mitigation policy worldwide. The only solutions to avoid excessive OA are a long-term mitigation strategy to limit future release of CO  to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO  from the atmosphere. The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change. The forthcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (Paris, December 2015) will be held with the objective of achieving a binding and global agreement on climate-related policy from all nations of the world. This conference, seeking to protect the climate, will be a great opportunity to find solutions in the human quest for sustainable energy as a global endeavour. The Energy Group of the European Physical Society (EPS) welcomes the energy policy of the European Union (EU) to promote renewable energies for electricity generation, together with energy efficiency measures. This policy needs to be implemented by taking into account the necessary investments and the impact on the economical position of the EU in the world. Since the direct impact of any EU energy policy on world CO2 emissions is rather limited, the best strategy is to take the lead in mitigating climate change and in developing an energy policy that offers an attractive and economically viable model with reduced CO2 emissions and lower energy dependence… The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that climate change is a serious global threat which requires an urgent global response, and that climate change is driven by human activity… Enough is now known to make climate change the challenge of the 21st century, and the research community is poised to address this challenge… There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial… The European Space Sciences Committee (ESSC) supports the Article (2) agreement on climate change of the Declaration of the ‘2015 Budapest World Science Forum on the enabling power of science’ urges such a universal agreement aiming at stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and reducing the amount of airborne particles. The ESSC encourages countries to reduce their emissions in order to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, which could lead to disastrous consequences. Such consequences, albeit from natural evolution, are witnessed in other objects of our Solar System. Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years… Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions… The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity. Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2011), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are now higher than they have been for many thousands of years. Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013). If the upward trend in greenhouse-gas concentrations continues, the projected global climate change by the end of the twenty-first century will result in significant impacts on humans and other species. The tangible effects of climate change are already occurring. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources… [The GSA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] The HCWH is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The HCCC is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. … Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the longterm risk of delaying action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk. Scientific evidence is overwhelming that current energy trends are unsustainable. Immediate action is required to effect change in the timeframe needed to address significant ecological, human health and development, and energy security needs. Aggressive changes in policy are thus needed to accelerate the deployment of superior technologies. With a combination of such policies at the local, national, and international level, it should be possible—both technically and economically—to elevate the living conditions of most of humanity, while simultaneously addressing the risks posed by climate change and other forms of energy-related environmental degradation and reducing the geopolitical tensions and economic vulnerabilities generated by existing patterns of dependence on predominantly fossil-fuel resources… The Study Panel believes that, given the dire prospect of climate change, the following three recommendations should be acted upon without delay and simultaneously: Taking into account the three urgent recommendations above, another recommendation stands out by itself as a moral and social imperative and should be pursued with all means available While the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO ). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere…. Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere… As the Earth’s climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves. As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. CAETS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level as quickly as possible. There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and, indirectly, from increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes in many physical and biological systems. It is very likely that most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007). Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide – to rise well above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 ppm in 1750 to over 380 ppm today, higher than any previous levels in at least the past 650,000 years. Increases in greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise; the Earth’s surface warmed by approximately 0.6°C over the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has forecast that average global surface temperatures will continue to increase, reaching between 1.1°C and 6.4°C above 1990 levels, by 2100. The uncertainties about the amount of global warming we face in coming decades can be reduced through further scientific research. Part of this research must be better documenting and understanding past climate change. Research on Earth’s climate in the recent geologic past provides insights into ways in which climate can change in the future. It also provides data that contribute to the testing and improvement of the computer models that are used to predict future climate change. Reduce the causes of climate change The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. A lack of full scientific certainty about some aspects of climate change is not a reason for delaying an immediate response that will, at a reasonable cost, prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions. Action taken now to reduce significantly the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will lessen the magnitude and rate of climate change. Fossil fuels, which are responsible for most of carbon dioxide emissions produced by human activities, provide valuable resources for many nations and will provide 85% of the world energy demand over the next 25 years (IEA 2004). Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority. The advances in scientific understanding of the Earth system generated by collaborative international, regional, and national observations and research programs; and The comprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional and national bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evidence, that human activities are the primary cause of recent climate change; Continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world’s primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences to the environment and society; Stabilization of climate to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”, as called for in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, will require significant cutbacks in greenhouse gas emissions during the 21st century; and Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change can be made more effective by reducing uncertainties regarding feedbacks and the associated mechanisms; Nations collectively to begin to reduce sharply global atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols, with the goal of urgently halting their accumulation in the atmosphere and holding atmospheric levels at their lowest practicable value; National and international agencies to adequately support comprehensive observation and research programs that can clarify the urgency and extent of needed mitigation and promote adaptation to the consequences of climate change; Resource managers, planners, and leaders of public and private organizations to incorporate information on ongoing and projected changes in climate and its ramifications into their decision-making, with goals of limiting emissions, reducing the negative consequences of climate change, and enhancing adaptation, public well-being, safety, and economic vitality; and Organizations around the world to join with IUGG and its member Associations to encourage scientists to communicate freely and widely with public and private decision-makers about the consequences and risks of on-going climate change and actions that can be taken to limit climate change and promote adaptation; and To act with its member Associations to develop and implement an integrated communication and outreach plan to increase public understanding of the nature and implications of human-induced impacts on the Earth system, with the aim of reducing detrimental consequences. The LMS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change The NACCHO is a signatory to the April 2016 declaration: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The National Association of Geoscience Teachers (NAGT) recognizes: (1) that Earth’s climate is changing, (2) that present warming trends are largely the result of human activities, and (3) that teaching climate change science is a fundamental and integral part of earth science education. The core mission of NAGT is to “foster improvement in the teaching of the earth sciences at all levels of formal and informal instruction, to emphasize the cultural significance of the earth sciences and to disseminate knowledge in this field to the general public.” The National Science Education Standards call for a populace that understands how scientific knowledge is both generated and verified, and how complex interactions between human activities and the environment can impact the Earth system. Climate is clearly an integral part of the Earth system connecting the physical, chemical and biological components and playing an essential role in how the Earth’s environment interacts with human culture and societal development. Thus, climate change science is an essential part of Earth Science education and is fundamental to the mission set forth by NAGT. In recognition of these imperatives, NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of climate change, the causes and effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. The NAHN is a signatory to the April 2016 declaration: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The NAML is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The NEHA is a signatory to the April 2016 declaration: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The NMA is a signatory to the April 2016 declaration: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ Many national science academies have published formal statements and declarations acknowledging the state of climate science, the fact that climate is changing, the compelling evidence that humans are responsible, and the need to debate and implement strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. A few examples of joint academy statements are listed here. Following the release of the third in the ongoing series of international reviews of climate science conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC), seventeen national science academies issued a joint statement, entitled “The Science of Climate Change,” acknowledging the IPCC study to be the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement was signed by: Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Turkish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK). Eleven national science academies, including all of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, signed a statement that the scientific understanding of climate change was sufficiently strong to justify prompt action. The statement explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus and stated: “…there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth’s climate.” The statement was signed by the science academies of: Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In 2007, seventeen national academies issued a joint declaration reconfirming previous statements and strengthening language based on new research from the fourth assessment report of the IPCC, including the following: “It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken.” The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In 2007, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint “statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change:” “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reached this conclusion with “90 percent certainty” in its Fourth Assessment issued earlier this year. The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability.” The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences. In 2008, the thirteen signers of the 2007 joint academies declaration issued a statement reiterating previous statements and reaffirming “that climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.” Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour.” The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In May 2009, thirteen national academies issued a joint statement that said among other things: “The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment of climate change science concluded that large reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, principally CO2, are needed soon to slow the increase of atmospheric concentrations, and avoid reaching unacceptable levels. However, climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid. Feedbacks in the climate system might lead to much more rapid climate changes. The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable.” The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In addition to the statement signed in 2001 by the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, the Academie Royale des Sciences, des Lettres & des Beaux-arts de Belgique (the French language academy in Belgium) issued a formal statement: In July 2015, the Royal Society and member organizations issued a joint “U.K. Science Communiqué on Climate Change.” In part, that statement reads: “The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that the climate is warming and that human activity is largely responsible for this change through emissions of greenhouse gases. Governments will meet in Paris in November and December this year to negotiate a legally binding and universal agreement on tackling climate change. Any international policy response to climate change must be rooted in the latest scientific evidence. This indicates that if we are to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming in this century to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period, we must transition to a zero-carbon world by early in the second half of the century. To achieve this transition, governments should demonstrate leadership by recognising the risks climate change poses, embracing appropriate policy and technological responses, and seizing the opportunities of low-carbon and climate-resilient growth.” It was signed by: The Academy of Medical Sciences (UK), The Academy of Social Sciences (UK), The British Academy for the Humanities and Social Sciences, The British Ecological Society, The Geological Society (UK), The Challenger Society for Marine Sciences, The Institution of Civil Engineers (UK), The Institution of Chemical Engineers, The Institution of Environmental Sciences, The Institute of Physics, The Learned Society of Wales, London Mathematical Society, Royal Astronomical Society, Royal Economic Society, Royal Geographic Society, Royal Meteorological Society, Royal Society, Royal Society of Biology, Royal Society of Chemistry, Royal Society of Edinburgh, Society for General Microbiology, Wellcome Trust, Zoological Society of London Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America’s Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. [The U.S. National Academies of Sciences have also signed a long series of statements with other national academies around the world in support of the state-of-the-science.] The NSCA is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf Acid rain, toxic air pollutants, and greenhouse gas emissions are a major threat to human health and welfare, as well as plant and animal life. Based on recognized adequate research of the causes and effects of the various forms of air pollution, the federal government should establish environmentally and economically sound standards for the reduction and control of these emissions. The OBFS is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The PHI is a signatory to the April 2016 declaration: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The RAS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The RES is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The RGS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is unequivocal in its conclusion that climate change is happening and that humans are contributing significantly to these changes. The evidence, from not just one source but a number of different measurements, is now far greater and the tools we have to model climate change contain much more of our scientific knowledge within them. The world’s best climate scientists are telling us it’s time to do something about it. Carbon Dioxide is such an important greenhouse gas because there is an increasing amount of it in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and it stays in the atmosphere for such a long time; a hundred years or so. The changes we are seeing now in our climate are the result of emissions since industrialisation and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get. The RMS is also a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The RS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, accompanied by sea-level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related changes. The evidence is clear. We strongly support the introduction of policies to significantly reduce UK and global greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change will be severe. We believe that biologists have a crucial role to play in developing innovative biotechnologies to generate more efficient and environmentally sustainable biofuels, and to capture and store greenhouse gases from power stations and the atmosphere. It is important for the government to continue to consult scientists, to review policy, and to encourage new technologies so as to ensure the best possible strategies are used to combat this complex issue. We are in favour of reducing energy demands, in particular by improvements in public transport and domestic appliances. As some degree of climate change is inevitable, we encourage the development of adaptation strategies to reduce the effects of global warming on our environment. There is an overwhelming scientific consensus worldwide, and a broad political consensus, that greenhouse gas emissions are affecting global climate, and that measures are needed to reduce these emissions significantly so as to limit the extent of climate change. The term ‘climate change’ is used predominantly to refer to global warming and its consequences, and this policy briefing will address these issues. Although long-term fluctuations in global temperature occur due to various factors such as solar activity, there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, i.e. due to human activity. The absorption and emission of solar radiation by greenhouse gases causes the atmosphere to warm. Human activities such as fossil fuel consumption and deforestation have elevated atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide significantly since pre-industrial times. The RSB is also a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The RSC is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The RSE is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. Global surface temperatures have warmed, on average, by around one degree Celsius since the late 19th century. Much of the warming, especially since the 1950s, is very likely a result of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting from human activity. The Northern Hemisphere have warmed much faster than the global average, while the southern oceans south of New Zealand latitudes have warmed more slowly. Generally, continental regions have warmed more than the ocean surface at the same latitudes. Global sea levels have risen around 19 cm since the start of the 20th century, and are almost certain to rise at a faster rate in future. Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level will continue to rise. Relatively small changes in average climate can have a big effect on the frequency of occurrence or likelihood of extreme events. How the future plays out depends critically on the emissions of greenhouses gases that enter the atmosphere over coming decades. New Zealand is being affected by climate change and impacts are set to increase in magnitude and extent over time. Floods, storms, droughts and fires will become more frequent unless significant action is taken to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases, which are changing the climate. Even small changes in average climate conditions are likely to lead to large changes in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. Our societies are not designed to cope with such rapid changes. The SGM is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The SIAM is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The SMB is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The SSAR is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The Society of American Foresters (SAF) believes that climate change policies and actions should recognize the role that forests play in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through 1) the substitution of wood products for nonrenewable building materials, 2) forest biomass substitution for fossil fuel-based energy sources, 3) reducing wildfire and other disturbance emissions, and 4) avoided land-use change. SAF also believes that sustainably managed forests can reduce GHG concentrations by sequestering atmospheric carbon in trees and soil, and by storing carbon in wood products made from the harvested trees. Finally, climate change policies can invest in sustainable forest management to achieve these benefits, and respond to the challenges and opportunities that a changing climate poses for forests. Of the many ways to reduce GHG emissions and atmospheric particulate pollution, the most familiar are increasing energy efficiency and conservation, and using renewable energy sources as a substitution for fossil fuels. Equally important is using forests to address climate change. Forests play an essential role controlling GHG emissions and atmospheric GHGs, while simultaneously providing essential environmental and social benefits, including clean water, wildlife habitat, recreation, and forest products that, in turn, store carbon. Finally, changes in long-term patterns of temperature and precipitation have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide through a variety of changes to growth and mortality (USDA Forest Service 2012). Many such changes are already evident, such as longer growing and wildfire seasons, increased incidence of pest and disease, and climate-related mortality of specific species (Westerling et al. 2006). These changes have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere. Successfully achieving the benefits forests can provide for addressing climate change will therefore require explicit and long-term policies and investment in managing these changes, as well as helping private landowners and public agencies understand the technologies and practices that can be used to respond to changing climate conditions… The SoN is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf The SSB is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases in ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The potential related impacts of climate change on the ability of agricultural systems, which include soil and water resources, to provide food, feed, fiber, and fuel, and maintenance of ecosystem services (e.g., water supply and habitat for crop landraces, wild relatives, and pollinators) as well as the integrity of the environment, are major concerns. Around the world and in the United States (US), agriculture—which is comprised of field, vegetable, and tree crops, as well as livestock production—constitutes a major land use which influences global ecosystems. Globally, crop production occupies approximately 1.8 Billion (B) hectares out of a total terrestrial land surface of about 13.5 B hectares. In addition, animal production utilizes grasslands, rangelands, and savannas, which altogether cover about a quarter of the Earth’s land. Even in 2010, agriculture remains the most basic and common human occupation on the planet and a major contributor to human well-being. Changes in climate are already affecting the sustainability of agricultural systems and disrupting production. [The May 2011 Statement was also signed by the American Society of Agronomy and the Crop Science Society of America.] [The SSSA is also a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf] The AMS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The AoSS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The BAHSS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The BES is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The CSMS is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more intensive use of resources, leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater… There is now widespread concern that the Earth’s climate will warm further, not only because of the lingering effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population continues to grow… [The GS is also a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF] The IoP is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The ICE is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The ICE is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The IES is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF The LSoW is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF Human activities over the past 100 years have caused significant changes in the earth’s climatic conditions, resulting in severe alterations in regional temperature and precipitation patterns that are expected to continue and become amplified over the next 100 years or more. Although climates have varied since the earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the increase in emissions of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor). Human activities contributing to climate warming include the burning of fossil fuels, slash and burn agriculture, methane production from animal husbandry practices, and land-use changes. The critical issue is no longer “whether” climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife- habitats… The TFAA is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The USCHA is a signatory to the April 2016 statement: http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/outdoor/climate-change/declaration-on-climate-change.html?referrer=https://www.google.com/ The UCAR is a signatory to the June 28, 2016 letter to the U.S. Congress: https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf Wellcome is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF Now that the world has negotiated the Paris agreement to mitigate GHGs and pursue adaptation to the changing climate, the focus must now turn towards implementation to turn the words into action. The world’s engineers are a human resource that must be tapped to contribute to this implementation. All countries use engineers to deliver services that provide the quality of life that society enjoys, in particular, potable water, sanitation, shelter, buildings, roads, bridges, power, energy and other types of infrastructure. There are opportunities to achieve GHG reduction as well as improving the climate resilience of this infrastructure through design, construction and operation all of which require the expertise and experience of engineers. Engineers are problem-solvers and seek to develop feasible solutions that are cost-effective and sustainable. Engineers serve the public interest and offer objective, unbiased review and advice. Having their expertise to evaluate the technical feasibility and economic viability of proposals to reduce GHGs and to adapt to climate change impacts should be pursued. Engineers input and action is required to implement solutions at country and local levels. The international organization known as the World Federation of Engineering Organizations consist of members of national engineering organizations from over 90 developing and developed countries representing more than 20 million engineers. The WFEO offers to facilitate contact and engagement with these organizations to identify subject matter experts that will contribute their time and expertise as members of the engineering profession. The expertise of the world’s engineers is needed to help successfully implement the Paris agreement. We encourage all countries to engage their engineers in this effort. The WFEO is prepared to assist in this effort. The WFEO consists of national members representing more than 85 countries as well as 10 regional engineering organizations. These members collectively engage with more than 20 million engineers worldwide who are committed to serve the public interest through Codes of Practice and a Code of Ethics that emphasize professional practice in sustainable development, environmental stewardship and climate change. WFEO, the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the International Social Science Council (ISSC) are co-organizing partners of the UN Major Group on Scientific and Technological Communities, one of the nine major groups of civil society recognized by the United Nations. Engineers acknowledge that climate change is underway and that sustained efforts must be undertaken to address this worldwide challenge to society, our quality of life and prosperity. Urgent actions are required and the engineering profession is prepared to do its part towards implementing cost-effective, feasible and sustainable solutions working in partnership with stakeholders. Noting the conclusions of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts… Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly the burning of fossil fuels – have released sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to trap additional heat in the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate. In the last 130 years, the world has warmed by approximately 0.85oC. Each of the last 3 decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Sea levels are rising, glaciers are melting and precipitation patterns are changing. Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent… Many policies and individual choices have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and produce major health co-benefits. For example, cleaner energy systems, and promoting the safe use of public transportation and active movement – such as cycling or walking as alternatives to using private vehicles – could reduce carbon emissions, and cut the burden of household air pollution, which causes some 4.3 million deaths per year, and ambient air pollution, which causes about 3 million deaths every year. In 2015, the WHO Executive Board endorsed a new work plan on climate change and health. This includes: Partnerships: to coordinate with partner agencies within the UN system, and ensure that health is properly represented in the climate change agenda. Awareness raising: to provide and disseminate information on the threats that climate change presents to human health, and opportunities to promote health while cutting carbon emissions. Science and evidence: to coordinate reviews of the scientific evidence on the links between climate change and health, and develop a global research agenda. Support for implementation of the public health response to climate change: to assist countries to build capacity to reduce health vulnerability to climate change, and promote health while reducing carbon emissions. Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Health professionals have a duty of care to current and future generations. You are on the front line in protecting people from climate impacts – from more heat-waves and other extreme weather events; from outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera; from the effects of malnutrition; as well as treating people that are affected by cancer, respiratory, cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases caused by environmental pollution. Already the hottest year on record, 2015 will see nations attempt to reach a global agreement to address climate change at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) in Paris in December. This may be the most important health agreement of the century: an opportunity not only to reduce climate change and its consequences, but to promote actions that can yield large and immediate health benefits, and reduce costs to health systems and communities… Since the beginning of the 20th century, scientists have been observing a change in the climate that cannot be attributed solely to natural influences. This change has occurred faster than any other climate change in Earth’s history and will have consequences for future generations. Scientists agree that this climate change is anthropogenic (human-induced). It is principally attributable to the increase of certain heat absorbing greenhouse gases in our atmosphere since the industrial revolution. The ever-increasing amount of these gases has directly lead to more heat being retained in the atmosphere and thus to increasing global average surface temperatures. The partners in the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) compile reliable scientific data and information on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and its natural and anthropogenic change. This helps to improve the understanding of interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. The World Meteorological Organization has published a detailed analysis of the global climate 2011-2015 – the hottest five-year period on record  – and the increasingly visible human footprint on extreme weather and climate events with dangerous and costly impacts. The record temperatures were accompanied by rising sea levels and declines in Arctic sea-ice extent, continental glaciers and northern hemisphere snow cover. All these climate change indicators confirmed the long-term warming trend caused by greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide reached the significant milestone of 400 parts per million in the atmosphere for the first time in 2015, according to the WMO report which was submitted to U.N. climate change conference. The Zoological Society is a signatory to the July 21, 2015 UK science communiqué on climate change. https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2015/21-07-15-climate-communique.PDF [Edited, compiled by Dr. Peter Gleick. Please send any corrections, additions, updates…]


News Article | March 9, 2016
Site: www.scientificamerican.com

Smartphone users have come to expect yearly, if not monthly, updates to their software. With one click, bugs are eliminated, apps operate faster, and new features instantly appear. Now imagine if the next big update to your phone wasn’t going to arrive for the next 20 years. This is essentially where we stand today with one of the key ingredients for weather forecasting in the United States; the last big weather satellite program took nearly two decades to prepare for launch. Weather satellites aren’t the same as iPhones, but they are similar in how they affect us on a daily, and even hourly, basis. The difference of course is that weather has come to be viewed as an unpredictable, mysterious affair, while phones are seen as things that lie within our control. It’s a universal pastime to speculate on the weather, but let’s not forget: literally trillions of dollars are lost each year, and thousands of human lives, due to scary events like floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes. After a long career in government satellite programs, I recognized that only a diverse network of public and private sector players, including Spire (where I am now a Product Manager), PlanetIQ, GeoOptics, and others, will be able to turn the current fleet of weather satellites—the equivalent of the old Nokia brick-style phones—into something more like the sleek iPhone 6s. To be fair, weather forecasts have gotten better over the past several decades. For example, the National Weather Service recently announced the upgrade of two supercomputers, which will triple computing power and result in higher precision weather forecasting. But even the best forecasting supercomputers— analyzing earth observations at quadrillions of calculations per second—are limited by the quantity and quality of data provided by today’s weather satellites, which are large, aging, and expensive beasts that require decades of work to be improved. Delays, cost overruns, and funding concerns are the norm in these cases as opposed to the exception. The game may soon change with the emergence of commercial weather satellites, which embody Moore’s Law in being smaller, faster, and cheaper. These shoe-boxed sized satellites are tapping one of the most promising (and least-known) new technologies for weather sensing in the past 20 years: GPS radio occultation (GPSRO). The technology makes use of radio signals continuously broadcast by GPS satellites orbiting the earth, about 20,000 km above earth’s surface. Much closer to earth’s surface, CubeSats listen for GPS signals as they fall over the horizon. Those GPS signals are “bent” around the earth as they are refracted by the atmosphere. Highly accurate temperature and water vapor information is then calculated by measuring how much the signal is bent. Like every promising breakthrough technology, the story of GPSRO is filled with its share of underdogs in the face of doubt and uncertainty. Back in 2001, the COSMIC Program, of which I was part, devised by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), NASA, and the National Science Foundation and provided with significant funding help from US agencies and Taiwan, attempted something never done before — launch 6 microsatellites to test the impact of GPSRO for weather forecasting. COSMIC Radio Occultation satellites, and RO in general, promised huge advantages over the legacy government satellites. Each of the 6 COSMIC satellites weighed approximately 70 kilograms (compared to older satellites that can weigh more than 3,000 kilograms) and were projected to cost around $100 million, including ground support, data processing, and the rocket to get them into space. In the space business, this was a revolution, but only if it could be proven to work. Initially, there were many more doubters than believers. The weather community didn't believe the data would be of value, nor did some people at UCAR. It took a lot of iteration, and lot of evangelizing, to convince people. Yet, the tide turned quickly when the tiny Minotaur 1 rocket launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California with the microsatellites onboard. All six deployed safely, on time, and within budget. The world began to take notice. Within weeks after launch, the COSMIC constellation began to deliver data. Testing of the data in US weather models began immediately by a young scientist, Lidia Cucurull As the results came in, the worldwide weather community was astounded. GPS-RO demonstrated the largest positive forecast impact of any space based sensor in the past two decades. Early on, people started to recognize the potential for GPS-RO satellites to be built and launched by commercial companies. Many believed that radio occultation would be the perfect “pathfinder” for a new business model in satellite atmospheric sensing, using commercial-level funding and speed of delivery for satellite data. RO could leverage the efficiencies of commercial development like few other technologies in space, which could potentially drive down the future costs of US and worldwide weather forecasting significantly. NOAA and the US Air Force are currently building COSMIC-2, which will push RO technology to the next level. COSMIC-2 will provide 8,000 to 10,000 high-quality soundings per day – well above the 2,000 soundings per day provided by COSMIC-1. However, recent scientific studies show that we still need many many RO soundings; it is fairly accepted that 100,000 soundings per day will allow for continued improvement in weather forecasting. That’s why we need to push for a global constellation that combines both ultra-high-quality soundings from COSMIC-2 and large amounts of high-quality soundings from commercial satellites to produce RO soundings at levels well above what each can do on its own. The commercialization of atmospheric satellite data is moving quickly, thanks to advances in the technology and work by Congress to ease this transition but there are roadblocks that may slow progress. Weather has historically been the domain of worldwide governments and while governments are not strangers to public-private partnerships, it’s an arrangement that requires flexibility (especially on the part of the commercial enterprise) and a well-thought-out transition. How will the advent of commercial weather satellites affect everyone? Expect weather forecasting to improve quickly over the next few years, with accurate forecasts out as far as 10 days. Expect weather and wind states over the oceans to improve dramatically, with a major positive impact on shipping and air travel. Expect the detection of the genesis of hurricanes much earlier with tracking and intensity forecasting improving by more than 50 percent. The wake-up call that led to the recent NOAA supercomputer upgrade was when the European weather model correctly predicted the storm track of Hurricane Sandy, better than the US model. Hurricane Sandy was the deadliest hurricane in the northeastern United States in 40 years and the second-costliest in  the nation's history. The ability to get “real-time’ information about the state of the atmosphere and specific, directed information will be huge, and the benefits to daily life are hard to fathom. But let’s agree: it’s clearly better than speculating on the weather, or waiting for the floods to arrive at our doorsteps.


News Article | February 15, 2017
Site: www.scientificcomputing.com

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is launching operations this month of one of the world's most powerful and energy-efficient supercomputers, providing the nation with a major new tool to advance understanding of the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences. Named "Cheyenne," the 5.34-petaflop system is capable of more than triple the amount of scientific computing performed by the previous NCAR supercomputer, Yellowstone. It also is three times more energy efficient. Scientists across the country will use Cheyenne to study phenomena ranging from wildfires and seismic activity to gusts that generate power at wind farms. Their findings will lay the groundwork for better protecting society from natural disasters, lead to more detailed projections of seasonal and longer-term weather and climate variability and change, and improve weather and water forecasts that are needed by economic sectors from agriculture and energy to transportation and tourism. "Cheyenne will help us advance the knowledge needed for saving lives, protecting property, and enabling U.S. businesses to better compete in the global marketplace," said Antonio J. Busalacchi, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. "This system is turbocharging our science." UCAR manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation (NSF). Cheyenne currently ranks as the 20th fastest supercomputer in the world and the fastest in the Mountain West, although such rankings change as new and more powerful machines begin operations. It is funded by NSF as well as by the state of Wyoming through an appropriation to the University of Wyoming. Cheyenne is housed in the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC), one of the nation's premier supercomputing facilities for research. Since the NWSC opened in 2012, more than 2,200 scientists from more than 300 universities and federal labs have used its resources. "Through our work at the NWSC, we have a better understanding of such important processes as surface and subsurface hydrology, physics of flow in reservoir rock, and weather modification and precipitation stimulation," said William Gern, vice president of research and economic development at the University of Wyoming. "Importantly, we are also introducing Wyoming’s school-age students to the significance and power of computing." The NWSC is located in Cheyenne, and the name of the new system was chosen to honor the support the center has received from the people of that city. The name also commemorates the upcoming 150th anniversary of the city, which was founded in 1867 and named for the American Indian Cheyenne Nation. Cheyenne was built by Silicon Graphics International, or SGI (now part of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.), with DataDirect Networks (DDN) providing centralized file system and data storage components. Cheyenne is capable of 5.34 quadrillion calculations per second (5.34 petaflops, or floating point operations per second). The new system has a peak computation rate of more than 3 billion calculations per second for every watt of energy consumed. That is three times more energy efficient than the Yellowstone supercomputer, which is also highly efficient. The data storage system for Cheyenne provides an initial capacity of 20 petabytes, expandable to 40 petabytes with the addition of extra drives.  The new DDN system also transfers data at the rate of 220 gigabytes per second, which is more than twice as fast as the previous file system’s rate of 90 gigabytes per second. Cheyenne is the latest in a long and successful history of supercomputers supported by the NSF and NCAR to advance the atmospheric and related sciences. “We’re excited to provide the research community with more supercomputing power,” said Anke Kamrath, interim director of NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, which oversees operations at the NWSC. “Scientists have access to increasingly large amounts of data about our planet. The enhanced capabilities of the NWSC will enable them to tackle problems that used to be out of reach and obtain results at far greater speeds than ever.” High-performance computers such as Cheyenne allow researchers to run increasingly detailed models that simulate complex events and predict how they might unfold in the future. With more supercomputing power, scientists can capture additional processes, run their models at a higher resolution, and conduct an ensemble of modeling runs that provide a fuller picture of the same time period. "Providing next-generation supercomputing is vital to better understanding the Earth system that affects us all, " said NCAR Director James W. Hurrell. "We're delighted that this powerful resource is now available to the nation's scientists, and we're looking forward to new discoveries in climate, weather, space weather, renewable energy, and other critical areas of research." Some of the initial projects on Cheyenne include: Long-range, seasonal to decadal forecasting: Several studies led by George Mason University, the University of Miami, and NCAR aim to improve prediction of weather patterns months to years in advance. Researchers will use Cheyenne's capabilities to generate more comprehensive simulations of finer-scale processes in the ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice. This research will help scientists refine computer models for improved long-term predictions, including how year-to-year changes in Arctic sea ice extent may affect the likelihood of extreme weather events thousands of miles away. Wind energy: Projecting electricity output at a wind farm is extraordinarily challenging as it involves predicting variable gusts and complex wind eddies at the height of turbines, which are hundreds of feet above the sensors used for weather forecasting. University of Wyoming researchers will use Cheyenne to simulate wind conditions on different scales, from across the continent down to the tiny space near a wind turbine blade, as well as the vibrations within an individual turbine itself. In addition, an NCAR-led project will create high-resolution, 3-D simulations of vertical and horizontal drafts to provide more information about winds over complex terrain. This type of research is critical as utilities seek to make wind farms as efficient as possible. Space weather: Scientists are working to better understand solar disturbances that buffet Earth's atmosphere and threaten the operation of satellites, communications, and power grids. New projects led by the University of Delaware and NCAR are using Cheyenne to gain more insight into how solar activity leads to damaging geomagnetic storms. The scientists plan to develop detailed simulations of the emergence of the magnetic field from the subsurface of the Sun into its atmosphere, as well as gain a three-dimensional view of plasma turbulence and magnetic reconnection in space that lead to plasma heating. Extreme weather: One of the leading questions about climate change is how it could affect the frequency and severity of major storms and other types of severe weather. An NCAR-led project will explore how climate interacts with the land surface and hydrology over the United States, and how extreme weather events can be expected to change in the future. It will use advanced modeling approaches at high resolution (down to just a few miles) in ways that can help scientists configure future climate models to better simulate extreme events. Climate engineering: To counter the effects of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, some experts have proposed artificially cooling the planet by injecting sulfates into the stratosphere, which would mimic the effects of a major volcanic eruption. But if society ever tried to engage in such climate engineering, or geoengineering, the results could alter the world's climate in unintended ways. An NCAR-led project is using Cheyenne's computing power to run an ensemble of climate engineering simulations to show how hypothetical sulfate injections could affect regional temperatures and precipitation. Smoke and global climate: A study led by the University of Wyoming will look into emissions from wildfires and how they affect stratocumulus clouds over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. This research is needed for a better understanding of the global climate system, as stratocumulus clouds, which cover 23 percent of Earth's surface, play a key role in reflecting sunlight back into space. The work will help reveal the extent to which particles emitted during biomass burning influence cloud processes in ways that affect global temperatures.


News Article | December 3, 2016
Site: www.forbes.com

In recent weeks there has been a "buzz" and angst about NASA's Earth Sciences mission.  I am a former NASA Earth scientist and also engage in research within its Earth Science framework. Staring at the ceiling this morning, I realized there are 5 pragmatic reasons NASA should study Earth and they all started with the letter "B." I am not kidding. I have no interest in focusing on political issues surrounding the topic. I just want to lay out my 5 "B" reasons. Broad. The NASA Earth Science mission is broader than you think. I was a research meteorologist at NASA for 12 years and during much of that time I served as the Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. This satellite is now in orbit and providing critical weather information for forecasters, the weather research community, National Hurricane Center, the military, agricultural organizations, and hazard-emergency management communities. It also provides critical information on how Earth's water cycle is functioning and changing. Yes, this is a part of climate research, but did you notice how many things I mentioned before I got to climate. In partnership with the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency, GPM is providing valuable information to agencies, stakeholders, and countries around the world that do not have robust Doppler radars, rain gauge networks, and resources. Yet, these countries deal with hurricanes, droughts, landslides, and flood threats just like the United States. I encourage you to explore the broad value and reach of NASA's Earth Science missions. Basis. Observations, modeling advances, and expertise from NASA's Earth Science program are the basis for many aspects of our society. I can point to so many things in your daily lives that are benefiting from NASA Earth Science. Did you consume a weather forecast today? European and U.S. weather models ingest NASA and other satellite data sets into them to improve forecasts. Did you wake up worrying about harmful doses of UV radiation searing your skin? I doubt it. We take for granted that our ozone layer is mending. NASA satellite data helped determine the scale of the ozone hole. I could go on and on with examples like this. But why NASA? Because. The Space Act of 1958, which created NASA, explicitly says The aeronautical and space activities of the United States shall be conducted so as to contribute materially to one or more of the following objectives: The expansion of human knowledge of phenomena in the atmosphere and space … The establishment of long-range studies of the potential benefits to be gained from, the opportunities for, and the problems involved in the utilization of aeronautical and space activities for peaceful and scientific purposes… .The preservation of the role of the United States as a leader in aeronautical and space science and technology and in the application thereof to the conduct of peaceful activities within and outside the atmosphere… The agency has a mandate to study Earth and its atmosphere and always did. Think of an automotive company. It has operational or assembly line functions.  It also has a research and development (R&D) component developing future engines and car designs. They have distinct roles that complement each other. NASA is very much the R&D arm exploring new ideas and methods that ultimately benefit more operational agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the military, U.S. Forest Service, and others. Brainware. This term used by Dr. Tony Busalacchi of UCAR describes the institutional knowledge, expertise, and intellectual property. If various NASA Earth Science missions, science, and capacity are significantly shuttered, we essentially cripple one of the most exemplary science efforts in the history of mankind. NASA's contributions to the study of our planet are held in high regard globally. The greatness of our science, technological, engineering, and math (STEM) position would be weakened on the world stage for years to decades. Why? You can't just ramp back up and retrain the types of engineering, scientific, and computational "brainware" lost in a purge. Building a satellite like GPM that can take "cat-scans" of hurricanes is not something you can learn how to do on You Tube. Business. NASA's mission has always been more than launching space shuttles and astronauts. What I don't think many people realize is that if you go to any of NASA's 20 centers or facilities (yep, I said 20), you will find a significant number of private contractors working alongside NASA civil servants. NASA's Earth Sciences program is no different. It supports a vibrant and large mix of private jobs, contracts, and services. Private companies build the satellite components, provide launch vehicles, support research, and so forth. The state that you reside in likely benefits too. Many of the research projects at Universities directly benefit from the overhead from NASA funding. Some small business in your state may support a NASA Earth Sciences mission in some way that you never imagined. Obviously there are more reasons to keep NASA's Earth Sciences program strong than I have discussed herein, but I hope this gives you some insight beyond the "low-hanging" fruit discussions. We currently have no "Plan B" for living on another planet in mass numbers so I kind of like that NASA studies the planet with humans on it too.


Doyle J.D.,U.S. Navy | Jiang Q.,UCAR | Smith R.B.,Yale University | Grubisic V.,University of Vienna
Monthly Weather Review | Year: 2011

Measurements from the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF/NCAR) Gulfstream V (G-V) obtained during the recent Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) indicate marked differences in the character of the wave response between repeated flight tracks across the Sierra Nevada, which were separated by a distance of approximately 50 km. Observations from several of the G-V research flights indicate that the vertical velocities in the primary wave exhibited variations up to a factor of 2 between the southern and northern portions of the racetrack flight segments in the lower stratosphere, with the largest amplitude waves most often occurring over the southern flight leg, which has a terrain maximum that is 800 m lower than the northern leg. Multiple racetracks at 11.7- and 13.1-km altitudes indicate that these differences were repeatable, which is suggestive that the deviations were likely due to vertically propagating mountain waves that varied systematically in amplitude rather than associated with transients. The cross-mountain horizontal velocity perturbations are also a maximum above the southern portion of the Sierra Nevada ridge. Real data and idealized nonhydrostatic numerical model simulations are used to test the hypothesis that the observed variability in the wave amplitude and characteristics in the along-barrier direction is a consequence of blocking by the three-dimensional Sierra Nevada and the Coriolis effect. The numerical simulation results suggest that wave launching is sensitive to the overall three-dimensional characteristics of the Sierra Nevada barrier, which has an important impact on the wave amplitude and characteristics in the lower stratosphere. Real-time high-resolution Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) forecasts successfully capture the along-barrier variations in the wave amplitude (using vertical velocity as a proxy) as well as skillfully distinguishing between large- and small-amplitude stratospheric wave events during T-REX. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.


Sandifer P.A.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Trtanj J.M.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Collier T.K.,UCAR
Microbial Ecology | Year: 2013

We review recent history and evolution of Oceans and Human Health programs and related activities in the USA from a perspective within the Federal government. As a result of about a decade of support by the US Congress and through a few Federal agencies, notably the National Science Foundation, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, and National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, robust Oceans and Human Health (OHH) research and application activities are now relatively widespread, although still small, in a number of agencies and academic institutions. OHH themes and issues have been incorporated into comprehensive federal ocean research plans and are reflected in the new National Ocean Policy enunciated by Executive Order 13547. In just a decade, OHH has matured into a recognized "metadiscipline," with development of a small, but robust and diverse community of science and practice, incorporation into academic educational programs, regular participation in ocean and coastal science and public health societies, and active engagement with public health decision makers. In addition to substantial increases in scientific information, the OHH community has demonstrated ability to respond rapidly and effectively to emergency situations such as those associated with extreme weather events (e. g., hurricanes, floods) and human-caused disasters (e. g., the Deep Water Horizon oil spill). Among many other things, next steps include development and implementation of agency health strategies and provision of specific services, such as ecological forecasts to provide routine early warnings for ocean health threats and opportunities for prevention and mitigation of these risks. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA).


Murillo S.T.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Lee W.-C.,UCAR | Bell M.M.,UCAR | Barnes G.M.,University of Hawaii at Manoa | And 2 more authors.
Monthly Weather Review | Year: 2011

A plausible primary circulation and circulation center of a tropical cyclone (TC) can be deduced from a coastal Doppler radar using the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) technique and the GBVTDsimplex algorithm. The quality of the retrieved primary circulation is highly sensitive to the accuracy of the circulation center that can only be estimated from the degree of scattering of all possible centers obtained in GBVTD-simplex analyses from a single radar in real TCs. This study extends previous work to examine the uncertainties in the GBVTD-simplex-derived circulation centers and the GBVTD-derived primary circulations in Hurricane Danny (1997) sampled simultaneously from two Doppler radars [Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dopplers (WSR-88Ds) in Mobile, Alabama, and Slidell, Louisiana] for 5 h. It is found that the mean difference between the individually computed GBVTD-simplex-derived centers is 2.13 km, similar to the estimates in previous studies. This value can be improved to 1.59 km by imposing time continuity in the radius ofmaximumwind, maximummean tangentialwind, and the center position in successive volumes. These additional physical criteria, not considered in previous work, stabilized the GBVTD-simplex algorithm and paved the way for automating the center finding and wind retrieval procedures in the future. Using the improved set of centers,Danny's axisymmetric tangentialwind structures retrieved fromeach radar showed general agreement with systematic differences (up to 6 m s-1) in certain periods. The consistency in the wavenumber-1 tangential winds was not as good as their axisymmetric counterparts. It is suspected that the systematic differences in the axisymmetric tangential winds were caused by the unresolved wavenumber-2 sine components rather than from the relatively small cross-beam mean wind components in Danny. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.


News Article | February 28, 2017
Site: www.prnewswire.co.uk

* Le solde du chiffre d'affaires consolidé est constitué par les ventes de véhicules dans le cadre de l'approvisionnement du réseau, activité sécurisée (engagements de reprise des constructeurs) et faiblement margée. ** pro forma : chiffres 2015 retraités de l'impact de la cession des succursales Le Groupe UCAR a enregistré en 2016 un chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 47,4 millions d'euros, en hausse de 3,8% par rapport à 2015 à périmètre équivalent, retraité de l'impact des succursales cédées au cours de l'année. Le chiffre d'affaires sous enseignes, représentatif de l'ensemble des activités, s'élève à 84,9 M€, en hausse de 4,9% à périmètre actuel. Suite à l'annonce faite au premier semestre 2016 de 4 nouveaux partenariats avec Volkswagen, Hyundaï, DS et Citroën, la croissance du groupe est alimentée par la forte dynamique des nouveaux réseaux en marque blanche. L'impact de ces ouvertures sur le chiffre d'affaires 2016 est visible sur le poste « services aux réseaux » en croissance de 25,6% sur douze mois. Le Groupe a par ailleurs accéléré en 2016 la réorganisation de son réseau de succursales et recentré son activité sur son réseau de franchise. A fin décembre 2016, le Groupe compte 314 agences, un nombre en forte progression par rapport au 31 décembre 2015 (259) et ce malgré la cession de 9 succursales et la fermeture de 2 autres. Ce redémarrage du développement a porté principalement sur les réseaux en marque blanche avec l'ouverture de 62 nouveaux points de location ainsi que sur les franchises Ucar non exclusives avec 8 nouvelles ouvertures. Ces développements réalisés sur 2016 concrétisent l'inflexion stratégique amorcée fin 2015 par le Groupe UCAR et vont continuer à se renforcer durant l'année 2017, avec : Pour rappel, les partenariats signés en 2016 représentent 400 agences en France à horizon 2018. La société envisage donc toujours une forte croissance de son réseau afin d'atteindre à terme son objectif de 750 agences. Fondé en 2000, UCAR est un spécialiste de la location de véhicules courte durée de proximité, positionné pour répondre aux nouveaux modes de consommation de l'automobile. Face à l'évolution des modes de vie urbains, à la baisse du pouvoir d'achat, et à une prise de conscience écologique croissante, l'offre innovante d'UCAR est basée sur : UCAR regroupe près de 100 collaborateurs directs et 500 personnes travaillant dans l'ensemble des réseaux (franchisés et collaborateurs franchisés). Le Groupe est présent en France avec 314 agences et une flotte de près de 7 000 véhicules. En 2016, le volume d'affaires sous enseigne UCAR et réseaux associés est de 84,9 M€. UCAR est coté sur Alternext d'Euronext Paris (FR 0011070457 - ALUCR) depuis le 6 juillet 2011.

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