The Tinbergen Institute is a joint institute for research and education in economics, econometrics and finance of the University of Amsterdam, the VU University Amsterdam and the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The institute was founded in 1987 and it is named after the Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen, a Nobel prize-winning professor at the Erasmus University Rotterdam.The Tinbergen Institute has over 200 research fellows from the three participating universities, and some 190 PhD students. It is ranked among the World Top 50 Economic Institutions according to IDEAS/RePEc. It cooperates with many world class economics and econometrics departments (in US for example Harvard University, Princeton University, in Europe for example with Pompeu Fabra University, Oxford University, University College London, and European University Institute in Florence.Awarded Honorary Fellow of the Tinbergen Institute are Mars Cramer†, Teun Kloek, Jean Paelinck, Herman van Dijk, Bernard van Praag and Henk Tijms. Wikipedia.

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Van Praag B.M.S.,Tinbergen Institute | Van De Kuilen G.,University of Tilburg
Theory and Decision | Year: 2010

This article presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1,935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the lab, suggesting that utility is less pronounced than what is found in classical measurements where expected utility is assumed. Utility for losses is found to be convex, consistent with diminishing sensitivity, and the obtained loss-aversion coefficient of 1.6 is moderate but in agreement with contemporary evidence. The estimated probability weighting functions have an inverse-S shape and they imply pessimism in both domains. These results show that probability weighting is also an important phenomenon in the general population. Women and lower educated individuals are found to be more risk averse, in agreement with common findings. In contrast to previous studies that ascribed gender differences in risk attitudes solely to differences in the degree utility curvature, however, our results show that this finding is primarily driven by loss aversion and, for women, also by a more pessimistic psychological response toward the probability of obtaining the best possible outcome.

Tol R.S.J.,University of Sussex | Tol R.S.J.,VU University Amsterdam | Tol R.S.J.,Tinbergen Institute
Energy Policy | Year: 2014

A claim has been that 97% of the scientific literature endorses anthropogenic climate change (Cook et al., 2013. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024024). This claim, frequently repeated in debates about climate policy, does not stand. A trend in composition is mistaken for a trend in endorsement. Reported results are inconsistent and biased. The sample is not representative and contains many irrelevant papers. Overall, data quality is low. Cook's validation test shows that the data are invalid. Data disclosure is incomplete so that key results cannot be reproduced or tested. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Tol R.S.J.,University of Sussex | Tol R.S.J.,VU University Amsterdam | Tol R.S.J.,Tinbergen Institute
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2016

Cook et al's highly influential consensus study (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) finds different results than previous studies in the consensus literature. It omits tests for systematic differences between raters. Many abstracts are unaccounted for. The paper does not discuss the procedures used to ensure independence between the raters, to ensure that raters did not use additional information, and to ensure that later ratings were not influenced by earlier results. Clarifying these issues would further strengthen the paper, and establish it as our best estimate of the consensus. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Koster P.,VU University Amsterdam | Verhoef E.T.,Tinbergen Institute
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy | Year: 2012

This paper proposes an analytical framework for the scheduling decisions of road travellers that takes into account probability weighting using rank-dependent utility theory. The fundamental difference with the standard scheduling model based on expected utility is that the probabilities of arrivals are treated in a non-linear way. This paper shows how scheduling decisions are affected by the weighted probabilities of the traveller. We derive the costs of non-optimal chosen departure times because of probability weighting and show that if the parameterised probability weighting function is similar to what has been found for gambling, the costs of probability weighting for morning peak car travellers are around 3 per cent. For the full range of parameters tested, we find costs in the range of 0-24 per cent of total travel costs.

Van Der Leij M.J.,University of Amsterdam | Van Der Leij M.J.,Tinbergen Institute
Science | Year: 2011

Internet experiments start to unravel the role of social networks in the spread of behavior in society.

Garcia-Gomez P.,Erasmus University Rotterdam | Garcia-Gomez P.,Tinbergen Institute | Garcia-Gomez P.,University Pompeu Fabra
Journal of Health Economics | Year: 2011

This paper investigates the relationship between health shocks and labour market outcomes in 9 European countries using the European Community Household Panel. Matching techniques are used to control for the non-experimental nature of the data. The results suggest that there is a significant causal effect from health on the probability of employment: individuals who incur a health shock are significantly more likely to leave employment and transit into disability. The estimates differ across countries, with the largest employment effects being found in The Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Ireland, and the smallest in France and Italy. Differences in social security arrangements help to explain these cross-country differences. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Kiviet J.F.,Tinbergen Institute | Phillips G.D.A.,University of Cardiff
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis | Year: 2012

An approximation to order T- 2 is obtained for the bias of the full vector of least-squares estimates obtained from a sample of size T in general stable but not necessarily stationary ARX(1) models with normal disturbances. This yields generalizations, allowing for various forms of initial conditions, of Kendall's and White's classic results for stationary AR(1) models. The accuracy of various alternative approximations is examined and compared by simulation for particular parameterizations of AR(1) and ARX(1) models. The results show that often the second-order approximation is considerably better than its first-order counterpart and hence opens up perspectives for improved bias correction. However, order T- 2 approximations are also found to be more vulnerable in the near unit root case than the much simpler order T- 1 approximations. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

van den Bergh J.C.J.M.,Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies | van den Bergh J.C.J.M.,Autonomous University of Barcelona | van den Bergh J.C.J.M.,VU University Amsterdam | van den Bergh J.C.J.M.,Tinbergen Institute
Environmental and Resource Economics | Year: 2011

This article sketches the problem of indirect energy use effects, also known as rebound, of energy conservation. There is widespread support for energy conservation, especially when it is voluntary, as this seems a cheap way to realize environmental and energy-climate goals. However, this overlooks the phenomenon of rebound. The topic of energy rebound has mainly attracted attention from energy analysts, but has been surprisingly neglected in environmental economics, even though economists generally are concerned with indirect or economy-wide impacts of technical change and policies. This paper presents definitions and interpretations of energy and environmental rebound, as well as four fundamental reasons for the existence of the rebound phenomenon. It further offers the most complete list of rebound pathways or mechanisms available in the literature. In addition, it discusses empirical estimates of rebound and addresses the implications of uncertainties and difficulties in assessing rebound. Suggestions are offered for strategies and public policies to contain rebound. It is advised that rebound evaluation is an essential part of environmental policy and project assessments. As opposed to earlier studies, this paper stresses the relevance of the distinction between energy conservation resulting from autonomous demand changes and from efficiency improvements in technology/equipment. In addition, it argues that rebound is especially relevant for developing countries. © 2010 The Author(s).

Mulder P.,VU University Amsterdam | de Groot H.L.F.,VU University Amsterdam | de Groot H.L.F.,Tinbergen Institute
Energy Economics | Year: 2012

This paper uses new and unique data derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energy intensity developments across 18 OECD countries and 50 sectors over the period 1970-2005. We find that across countries energy intensity levels tend to decrease in most Manufacturing sectors. In the Service sector, energy intensity decreases at a relatively slow rate, with diverse trends across sub-sectors. A decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energy intensity dynamics. A convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross-country variation in aggregate energy intensity levels clearly tends to decrease, driven by a strong and robust trend break in Manufacturing and enhanced convergence in Services. Moreover, we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching-up with leading countries, with rates of convergence that are on average higher in Services than in Manufacturing. Aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within-sector energy intensity levels, and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Erreygers G.,University of Antwerp | Van Ourti T.,Erasmus University Rotterdam | Van Ourti T.,Tinbergen Institute
Journal of Health Economics | Year: 2011

The tools to be used and other choices to be made when measuring socioeconomic inequalities with rank-dependent inequality indices have recently been debated in this journal. This paper adds to this debate by stressing the importance of the measurement scale, by providing formal proofs of several issues in the debate, and by lifting the curtain on the confusing debate between adherents of absolute versus relative health differences. We end this paper with a 'matrix' that provides guidelines on the usefulness of several rank-dependent inequality indices under varying circumstances. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

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