Thunen Institute of Market Analysis

Braunschweig, Germany

Thunen Institute of Market Analysis

Braunschweig, Germany
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Offermann F.,Thunen Institute of Farm Economics | Banse M.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Dedlit C.,Thunen Institute of Farm Economics | Gocht A.,Thunen Institute of Farm Economics | And 8 more authors.
Landbauforschung Volkenrode | Year: 2016

This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a projection of medium-term developments of the agricultural sector in Germany, addressing agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, income and environmental aspects. The Baseline was established using and combining several models of the Thünen Modelling Network. In the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets, in combination with a weak Euro, contribute to the positive development of many agricultural product prices and farm incomes in Germany. The abolishment of the milk quota and rising milk prices are key factors in the projected increase of milk production to 37 million tons by 2025. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments. Germany is the only member state without voluntary coupled support payments in the Baseline. The use of coupled payments in the other EU member states has only small negative effects on Germany. Reduction of ammonia emissions and high regional nitrogen soil surpluses remain among the key environmental challenges for agricultural policy.

Belaya V.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Hanf J.H.,Geisenheim University
Supply Chain Forum | Year: 2014

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of power on conflict in processor-supplier relationships and come up with recommendations for the use of power in conflict resolution. The study draws on data from 89 international food processors in Russia. The authors use structural equation modeling to test their hypotheses. Depending on the type of power, its effect on conflict may be completely different. The results indicate that coercive, reward, and legitimate powers have positive effects and expert, informational, and referent powers have negative effects on conflict. We put special focus in our research on a food processor as a focal company. Therefore, the data in our study represent a single perspective in the dyad. Our study has shown that supply chain practitioners can use expert, informational, and referent powers to effectively resolve conflict in processor-supplier relationships. © KEDGE BS.

Zander K.,University of Kassel | Zander K.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Stolz H.,Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL | Hamm U.,University of Kassel
Appetite | Year: 2013

Ethical consumerism is a growing trend worldwide. Ethical consumers' expectations are increasing and neither the Fairtrade nor the organic farming concept covers all the ethical concerns of consumers. Against this background the aim of this research is to elicit consumers' preferences regarding organic food with additional ethical attributes and their relevance at the market place. A mixed methods research approach was applied by combining an Information Display Matrix, Focus Group Discussions and Choice Experiments in five European countries. According to the results of the Information Display Matrix, 'higher animal welfare', 'local production' and 'fair producer prices' were preferred in all countries. These three attributes were discussed with Focus Groups in depth, using rather emotive ways of labelling. While the ranking of the attributes was the same, the emotive way of communicating these attributes was, for the most part, disliked by participants. The same attributes were then used in Choice Experiments, but with completely revised communication arguments. According to the results of the Focus Groups, the arguments were presented in a factual manner, using short and concise statements. In this research step, consumers in all countries except Austria gave priority to 'local production'. 'Higher animal welfare' and 'fair producer prices' turned out to be relevant for buying decisions only in Germany and Switzerland. According to our results, there is substantial potential for product differentiation in the organic sector through making use of production standards that exceed existing minimum regulations. The combination of different research methods in a mixed methods approach proved to be very helpful. The results of earlier research steps provided the basis from which to learn - findings could be applied in subsequent steps, and used to adjust and deepen the research design. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Efken J.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Dirksmeyer W.,Thunen Institute of Farm Economics | Kreins P.,Thunen Institute of Rural Studies | Knecht M.,Justus Liebig University
NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences | Year: 2016

This paper aims at measuring the importance of the bioeconomy within the economy as a whole in Germany. It is based upon the definition of the bioeconomy by the German Bioeconomy Council according to which the bioeconomy "encompasses all those sectors and their related services which produce, process or use biological resources in whatever form." Various official statistics were exploited for the determination of the different industries and their share of the bioeconomy. Our analysis covers the developments from 2002 to 2010. The indicators used were employment and gross value added. Altogether, about five million employees, representing 10% of all employees and 140 billion Euros, representing 6% of gross national product have been identified as the share of bioeconomy in Germany in 2010. This indicates a strong increase compared to the year 2002. Challenges that still need to be overcome are that neither the available data nor the economic activities themselves can be unambiguously assigned to the bioeconomy or the non-bioeconomy. © 2016 Royal Netherlands Society for Agricultural Sciences.

Weible D.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Christoph-Schulz I.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Salamon P.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Zander K.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis
British Food Journal | Year: 2016

Purpose – The wide divergence of the people’s expectations and agricultural reality results in conflicts between the agricultural sector and the general public. Contemporary animal husbandry systems are being increasingly critically addressed by media; however, there is no information about peoples’ perceptions and attitudes concentrating precisely on specific animal husbandry systems. The purpose of this paper is to explore citizens’ perceptions, expectations and main points of criticism in regard to intensive pig production in Germany, and to identify and describe distinct population groups reflecting different attitudes. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed method approach combining qualitative focus groups with a quantitative online survey has been employed. Focus groups capture a wide variety of opinions and concerns in an exploratory manner. Based on these findings, the quantitative survey (n=1,500 citizens) allowed the identification and characterisation of population groups with identical attitudes regarding pig husbandry. Findings – Qualitative research uncovered a huge range of criticism on pig husbandry, e.g. lack of space, frequency and prophylactic use of medications as well as a lack of care. A relationship was seen between the lack of space, widespread use of medications and behavioural disorders. Consumer preferences for buying cheap meat were believed to be part of the problem since this behaviour fosters the development of larger farms. Quantitative research confirmed the generally critical perception and identified three population groups. Only one third of the population was really concerned about animal husbandry. Younger people and people with better knowledge of agriculture were stronger opponents of intensive pig husbandry. Practical implications – Results indicate that increasing people’s knowledge may have an adverse effect on their acceptance of modern farming systems. More communication and better information strategies will probably not improve societal acceptance by itself. Instead, agricultural production systems need to be improved to meet better consumers’ expectations whereas communicating these improvements to consumers and the general public in a well-targeted manner will be required as well. Originality/value – When considering options for enhancing public acceptance of modern animal husbandry, a combination of different strategies by different stakeholders is needed. The agricultural sector should improve its communication with the general public and rethink its production practices against the background of public expectations. The government and its agencies urgently need to improve monitoring of the compliance of actual production practices with existing laws and to enforce them. Additionally, adjustments of current regulations of animal husbandry in light of public expectations should be considered. © 2016, © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Ott H.,European Commission | Ott H.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis
Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom) | Year: 2014

Wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and cotton experienced higher volatility in the second half of the 2000s. For the sample at hand, the unit root tests only validate a new period of high volatility for wheat and cotton. If in the next couple of years however, corn, rice and soybeans maintain their higher volatility, a new period of high volatility may also be validated statistically. Regarding the factors driving the intrayear volatility GMM estimates show that "commodity market fundamentals" i.e., the stock-to-use ratio and to a lesser extent the degree of internationalization, are the most systematically statistically significant coefficients among commodities. Over time, consecutive low stock-to-use ratios and a thin international market provoke typically high volatility. Speculative activity and liquidity in the agricultural derivative market have a stabilizing effect on the spot price, if any. Finally, "common macro" factors significantly impact volatility, especially the volatility of petrol and of exchange rates; their dispersion importance over the sample is quite sizeable. However, it is difficult to establish a link between, on the one hand, loose monetary policy, business cycle and inflation, and, on the other hand, commodity price volatility, as the sign of the estimated coefficient changes depending on the commodity and the estimated elasticities are quite low. © 2013 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Weible D.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis
Journal of Consumer Policy | Year: 2013

The literature on the factors influencing children's consumption behaviour is vast; however, gender-specific consumption behaviour and the determinants driving these discriminative decisions are largely unknown. This article contributes insights to the role of gender in food preferences using the example of school milk consumption by German primary school children. Study subjects included pupils, their parents, teachers, and other school personnel. The results of the multilevel model reveal that there are various factors influencing the probability that a child will decide to order school milk. In addition to individual factors such as socio-economics, eating habits, and preferences, consumption behaviour is also affected by social environmental factors. These factors include the preferences of parents, the consumption behaviour of teachers, teachers' attitudes, and the attitude of the school principal. Additionally, policy-driven aspects (e.g., school milk price, product range) were included in the analysis and proved to have an impact on a child's decision to order school milk. Although the results are limited to consumption behaviour for school milk, they can be used in the development of new or the revision of existing school food programmes. The example of school milk may shed light on how specific measures affect boys' and girls' consumption, e.g., how they react to price reductions or specific school settings. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Pelikan J.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Britz W.,University of Bonn | Hertel T.W.,Purdue University
Journal of Agricultural Economics | Year: 2015

This paper analyses the effects of introducing biodiversity-targeted ecological focus area (EFA) requirements on all farms with arable land in the EU by quantifying their global, regional, economic and environmental impacts in a mutually consistent way. To capture these impacts, different spatial scales need to be considered - ranging from on-farm decisions regarding the EFA in the EU, to supply response around the world. In order to address this challenge, we combine the supply side of the CAPRI model, which offers high spatial, farm and policy resolution in the EU, with the GTAP model of global trade and land use. Both models are linked through a multi-product, restricted-revenue function for the EU crop sector. The results predict improved environmental status in the high-yielding regions of the EU. However, output price increases lead to intensification in the more marginal areas of the EU where little or no additional land is taken out of production. The decrease in arable land in the EU is partially compensated by an increase of crop land, as well as increased fertiliser applications, in other regions of the globe. Thus, the improvement of environmental status in the EU comes at the price of global intensification, as well as the loss of forest and grassland areas outside the EU. Overall, we find that every hectare of land that is taken out of production in the EU increases greenhouse gas emissions in the rest of the world by 20.8 tonnes CO2 equivalent. © 2014 The Agricultural Economics Society.

Feucht Y.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Zander K.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis
Aquaculture | Year: 2015

Although aquaculture can have various positive effects, it is also criticized for its potentially negative impacts on the environment and for its consequences on fish welfare. One solution to these problems and a promising development track for the German aquaculture sector is the promotion of sustainable production methods. The establishment of a new market segment for domestic, sustainable fish from aquaculture would suit the trend towards ethical consumerism. Thus far, only little is known about the consumers' knowledge and perception of different production methods used in aquaculture especially in comparison to each other. Against this background, the present contribution aims to explore perceptions and knowledge of German consumers with regard to sustainable aquaculture, its production systems, related labels, and communication messages. Focus groups were used to obtain insight into the multitude of consumers' perceptions. One result is that consumers, even though they had little knowledge of aquaculture, often had a limited need for information about aquaculture. For the most part, they were unaware of potential problems resulting from aquaculture. However, they had some clear expectations on sustainable aquaculture. The use of drugs (e.g. antibiotics) should be minimized; production systems should be near-natural and should respect fish welfare. Earth ponds were the most desirable of the presented production systems. Participants were mostly unfamiliar with existing labeling schemes and found the presented communication messages too vague and/or too complex. They wanted to rely on the aquaculture industry to comply with sustainable standards. Our results leave the aquaculture sector with the task of communicating sustainable aquaculture in a reliable and comprehensible manner to consumers. Thus far, consumers who are generally interested in sustainability issues seem to prefer organic aquaculture products to products from other forms of sustainable aquaculture. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Feucht Y.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis | Zander K.,Thunen Institute of Market Analysis
Aquaculture International | Year: 2016

The current aquaculture methods are criticized by the public for potentially causing ecological problems and health risks for consumers. An unfavorable public perception may lead to a decline in consumption. Also the production might be affected negatively since legislation and as such approval procedures are influenced by public perception. The aquaculture industry has to consider public reactions to their production practices in order to prosper further. One way to learn about and to understand public perception is the analysis of media coverage since media are an important source of information for the public. Thus, the media coverage of an issue reveals potential points of conflict between the aquaculture sector and the public. We aimed to identify which attitude the media adopted toward aquaculture as a news issue and to determine which aspects of aquaculture were highlighted and how they were discussed. The study also focused on the presentation of recirculating systems and of organic aquaculture. Using this approach, we analyzed the media coverage of aquaculture in the most widely read German newspapers in the time period from 2008 to 2013. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative content analysis was used to examine the coverage in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the BILD. Our results indicate that the analyzed media primarily reported on aquaculture in a positive to neutral tone. Economic benefits of aquaculture dominated the coverage, whereas potential negative aspects of aquaculture received less attention. Organic fish farming and closed recirculating systems were both presented as eco-friendly practices. The German aquaculture sector was described as being sustainable and practicing good management. © 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

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