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Martinsohn M.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft | Hansen H.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft
Berichte uber Landwirtschaft | Year: 2013

The results of this contribution indicate that climate change has overall positive direct effects on the dairy farms in Lower Saxony. On average, farms in this area profit from the general warming, as it provides maize, an important forage plant, with better conditions of growth. Grass silage and decreasing milk production are hardly affected by heat stress, on an average. With regard to the operating profits of the typical farms in the regions surveyed, the effects under analysis led to increases of up to twelve per cent, depending on the region. The positive tendency for the operating profit will persist if a price elasticity of one is assumed and the price of maize decreases due to the considerable extra yield. The annual fluctuations in weather activity as well as individual years with extreme weather can exceed the effects of climate change on the operating profit, even if fluctuation ranges and extremes are taken into account which have occurred in the past and which do not reflect the assumed increase in weather variability due to climate change. These results fall into line with what farmers stated in the discussions of the focus groups. On the whole, they do not expect to be negatively affected by climate change, not least because their own belief and experience is that they are able to adapt to long-term changes well. What the farmers do see as a risk are extreme weather conditions, which occur more often and more violently.

Weber S.A.,Thunen Institute For Marktanalyse | Salamon P.,Thunen Institute For Marktanalyse | Hansen H.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft
Landbauforschung Volkenrode | Year: 2013

The foreclosure of the internal milk market has been significantly reduced with the stepwise reduction of intervention prices and the suspension of export refunds of the European Union. Thus, price developments of the world market could now affect all levels of supply chain. Previous studies on price transmission of milk and milk products refer to the relationship between retail and producers or producers and world markets. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to analyse price transmission along the total supply chain. With a focus on the German cheese market. For the analysis monthly data is used ranging from January 1997 to October 2011. Applying different error correction model specifications asymmetries are analysed. The results indicate that retailers balance seasonal variations of producers' and wholesalers' prices. In addition, it can be noted that seasonality is becoming increasingly important for international prices due to higher shares of grassland based milk production. It can also be shown that the time lags in which price changes are passed on between the different levels differ. Thus, within the supply chain of milk and milk products there exist price asymmetries.

Junker F.,Thunen Institute For Marktanalyse | Gocht A.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft | Marquardt S.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft | Osterburg B.,Thunen Institute For Landliche Raume | Stichnothe H.,Thunen Institute For Agrartechnologie
German Journal of Agricultural Economics | Year: 2015

Biodiesel production in Europe and Germany relies heavily on rapeseed oil. Thus, the biodiesel industry has become the most important outlet for rapeseed oil. In light of the increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) saving requirements at the European level, this situation may change: according to the default values specified in the current legislation, biodiesel produced from rapeseed oil will not meet GHG saving requirements as of 2017. In this article, we assess the market impacts of the withdrawal of rapeseed oil from the biodiesel industry in Germany and Europe. Simulations with the MAGNET and CAPRI modelling systems indicate a decline in producer prices for rapeseed of approximately 17% in the EU. The area dedicated to rapeseed production will decline by 6%. Rapeseed oil is primarily substituted by imported vegetable oils. Simultaneously, imports of biodiesel from North America, Argentina and Asia are projected to increase. We investigate options to improve the GHG balance of rapeseed biodiesel. We conclude that only a combination of climate-friendly produced fertiliser and efficient conversion processes can provide the necessary GHG emission-savings to meet the EU's sustainability goals after 2017.

Tietz A.,Thunen Institute For Landliche Raume | Forstner B.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft
Berichte uber Landwirtschaft | Year: 2015

When prices of an asset rise quickly due to irrational views about the future and later collapse, this is termed as a speculative bubble which might be harmful to the national economy. Prices for agricultural land in Germany have recently evolved in a way that the question is raised if this might turn out to be a speculative bubble. In this article we derive criteria for speculative bubbles from historical examples and apply them to the situation in Germany. We can show that the development of land prices is within rational expectations, compared to the trends of land rents and market interest rates over the same period. Moreover, the physical volume of land transfers has decreased and leveraged land acquisitions have not risen excessively, which also objects to the assumption of a speculative bubble.

Kleinhanss W.,Thunen Institute For Betriebswirtschaft
Berichte uber Landwirtschaft | Year: 2015

This analysis focuses on the question to what extent farms are able to remunerate costs arising from both external and owned factors. It is based on a concept which illustrates the relationship between income and factor costs. The simulations are based on farm individual data provided by the German Farm Accounting Data Network and cover the period from 2004/05 to 2013/14. While an emphasis is put on the development of the main farming types, factors relating to structure and location are also taken into account. Considering the underlying criteria, i.e. full or partial remuneration, forage growers and feed farms are in a weak position, as only one fourth or one third are able to fully remunerate the factors in question. About half of the dairy farms are able to fully remunerate. With arable crop farms the percentage varies between 35 percent in bad and 55 percent in good years. The simulation results underline the importance of scale effects, as only one third of the small farms and two thirds of the large growers are in a position to fully remunerate factors. Without the income support through direct payments even the large farms would not be able to fully remunerate factors.

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