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Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Cao Y.,North China Electrical Power University | Weng J.,North China Electrical Power University
Journal of Information and Computational Science | Year: 2015

With the strategy of low-carbon pilot city proceeding in China, the objective of this study is to identify simulated-variation tendency of urban traffic carbon emission under various policy focus and provide emission-cutting recommendations relatively in Baoding. System dynamics is based on the cause- and-effect analysis and feedback loops structures, including two sub-models: vehicles quantity and CO2 emissions using Vensim PLE software from 2006 to 2013. With an innovative exploration, this study employs system dynamics to carry out scenario numerical-simulation analysis, more specifically: establishing system dynamics model, analyzing scenario numerical-simulation results under different changed parameters and suggesting improvement proposal, making comparison and analysis. Result provides simulated data of energy consumption and carbon emissions and indicates the differences under different urban development strategies. Typically, large utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas vehicle (LNG) bus in urban transportation could reduce CO2 emissions considerably. Controlling vehicle quantity to improve the sustainability of transportation system are significant. ©, 2015, Journal of Information and Computational Science. All right reserved.


Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Cao Y.,North China Electrical Power University | Weng J.,North China Electrical Power University
Polish Journal of Environmental Studies | Year: 2015

For the purpose of diminishing the growing impact of energy use on the environment and providing policy focus in China, this study decomposes impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions into nine parts using various economic methods, typically using the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to incorporate necessary factors and ridge regression to eliminate multicollinearity. Results indicate the positive and conversely inhibitory impact factors, which we sort by influencing degrees as: total population, industrialization level, service level, energy consumption structure, urbanization level, GDP per capita, capital asserts investment, foreign trade degree, and technology level. Factors excluding technology level and energy consumption structure are main positive determinants of accelerated CO2 emissions. Above all, total population has the greatest interpretative ability. Given these regression results, policy proposals concerning key impact factor regulations are provided to maintain carbon emission abatement and sustainability. © 2015, Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. All rights reserved.


Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Liu Y.,North China Electrical Power University
Environmental Engineering Research | Year: 2016

The purpose of this study is to identify the driven factors affecting the changes in energy-related CO2 emissions in Hebei Province of China from 1995 to 2013. This study confirmed that energy-related CO2 emissions are correlated with the population, urbanization level, economic development degree, industry structure, foreign trade degree, technology level and energy proportion through an improved STIRPAT model. A reasonable and more reliable outcome of STIRPAT model can be obtained with the introducing of the Ridge Regression, which shows that population is the most important factor for CO2 emissions in Hebei with the coefficient 2.4528. Rely on these discussions about affect abilities of each driven factors, we conclude several proposals to arrive targets for reductions in Hebei’s energy-related CO2 emissions. The method improved and relative policy advance improved pointing at empirical results also can be applied by other province to make study about driven factors of the growth of carbon emissions. © 2016 Korean Society of Environmental Engineers.


Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Gao Q.,North China Electrical Power University
International Journal of Applied Environmental Sciences | Year: 2013

The greenhouse gases especially the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the primary causes of this global warming. As a high-energy consumption sector, the transport sector faced more challenges and responsibilities to save energy and reduce emissions. The purpose of this study is to find out the optimal proportion of coal, oil, natural and other energy to meet the reduction targets in China in 2020. The research firstly calculated the transport energy consumption from 2011 to 2020 based on Grey Prediction Model, and then by properly adjusting the proportion of various energy consumption, the CO2 emissions could achieve the target of carbon intensity reduction by 40-45% based on 2005 levels by 2020. The result of the analyses showed that the decrease in proportion of fossil-energy and increase the natural and electricity, which could effectively reduce carbon emissions. The tendency of energy consumption also indicates a blueprint of railway electrification and further expansion of aviation industry. At last, some rationalization proposals about transport mode are mentioned as follows: the government should develop public transport and standardize the management of private cars; draw up the suitable requirements of achieving the strategy of sustainable development of electric vehicle and natural gas vehicle. © Research India Publications.


Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Gao Q.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development
International Journal of Applied Environmental Sciences | Year: 2013

Recently, many countries have been making efforts to reduce their CO2 emissions. As a high-energy consumption sector, the transport sector faced more challenges and responsibilities to save energy and reduce emissions. The purpose of this study is to provide a new and more accurate method to measure CO2 emissions on transport sector. Compared with roughly estimating the CO2 emissions traditionally, we added an adjustment measures for energy consumption by energy balance sheet as a preparing step. The other innovation of this article is that we decomposed the energy consumption of transportation into three categories of vehicles, especially the CO2 emissions of private cars by mileage, which was to verify the method of calculation by energy balance sheet. At last, this research figured out the CO2 emissions of freight vehicles, passenger vehicles and private cars in Baoding city. In addition, some rationalization proposals about transport mode were proposed by the variation tendency of CO2 emissions. © Research India Publications.


Wen L.,North China Electrical Power University | Wen L.,The Academy of Baoding Low Carbon Development | Gao Q.,North China Electrical Power University
Journal of Information and Computational Science | Year: 2014

Recently, many countries have been making efforts to reduce their CO2 emissions. As a high-energy consumption sector, the transport sector faced challenges and responsibilities to save energy and reduce emissions. The purpose of this study is to forecast transport energy consumption from 2011 to 2020 based on Markov Prediction Model. This paper forecasted the variation tendency of energy structure in transport sector by Markov transition matrix. The result of the analyses showed that the proportion of kerosene, natural gas and electricity would increase rapidly, while the other fossil-energy consumption would decrease in the next decades. The tendency of energy consumption indicated the transport modes in the future, and it also drew a blueprint of railway electrification and further expansion of aviation industry. At last, some rationalization proposals about transport mode were mentioned as follows: the government should develop public transport and standardize the management of private cars; draw up the suitable requirements of achieving a strategy of sustainable development of electric vehicle and natural gas vehicle. Copyright © 2014 Binary Information Press.

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