PubMed | National Cheng Kung University, Tainan Municipal An Nan Hospital of China Medical University and Tien Sheng Memorial Hospital
Type: Journal Article | Journal: BMJ open | Year: 2017
We investigated whether calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS-C) is a feasible tool for predicting the incidence of falls.Prospective epidemiological cohort study.Community-dwelling people sampled in central western Taiwan.A cohort of community-dwelling people who were 40years old (men: 524; women: 676) in 2009-2010. Follow-up questionnaires were completed by 186 men and 257 women in 2012.Structured questionnaires and broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) data were obtained in 2009-2010 using QUS-C, and follow-up surveys were done in a telephone interview in 2012. Using a binary logistic regression model, the risk factors associated with a new fall during follow-up were analysed with all significant variables from the bivariate comparisons and theoretically important variables.The incidence of falls was determined when the first new fall occurred during the follow-up period. The mean follow-up time was 2.83years.The total incidence of falls was 28.0 per 1000 person-years for the 40year old group (all participants), 23.3 per 1000 person-years for the 40-70year old group, and 45.6 per 1000 person-years for the 70year old group. Using multiple logistic regression models, the independent factors were current smoking, living alone, psychiatric drug usage and lower BUA (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.99, p<0.05) in the 70year old group.The incidence of falls was highest in the 70year old group. Using QUS-C-derived BUA is feasible for predicting the incidence of falls in community-dwelling elderly people aged 70years.