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Sund B.,Karlstad University | Sund B.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB | Sund B.,Orebro University | Svensson M.,Orebro University | Andersson H.,French National Center for Scientific Research
Journal of Risk Research

This paper analyzes demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception, as well as the relationship between the two, for eight different risk domains. Analyses were conducted by merging the results of a Swedish population-based survey, which includes approximately 15,000 individuals, with demographic and socio-economic register data. Being male was associated with higher incident experience yet a lower risk perception for nearly all risk domains. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher incident experience for falls, and being a victim of violence but lower incident experience for road traffic accidents. Lower socioeconomic status was also associated with higher risk perception for falls. On aggregate, ranking the different domains, respondents’ risk perception was in almost perfect correspondence to the ranking of actual incident experience, with the exception that the risk of being a victim of violence is ranked higher than indicated by actual incident experience. On a demographic group level, men and highly educated respondents perceive their risks to be lower than what is expected considering their actual incident experience. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Source

Sund B.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB | Sund B.,Karlstad University | Sund B.,Orebro University
Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine

Background: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a frequent and acute medical condition that requires immediate care. We estimate survival rates from OHCA in the area of Stockholm, through developing an analytical tool for evaluating Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system design changes. The study also is an attempt to validate the proposed model used to generate the outcome measures for the study.Methods and results: This was done by combining a geographic information systems (GIS) simulation of driving times with register data on survival rates. The emergency resources comprised ambulance alone and ambulance plus fire services. The simulation model predicted a baseline survival rate of 3.9 per cent, and reducing the ambulance response time by one minute increased survival to 4.6 per cent. Adding the fire services as first responders (dual dispatch) increased survival to 6.2 per cent from the baseline level. The model predictions were validated using empirical data.Conclusion: We have presented an analytical tool that easily can be generalized to other regions or countries. The model can be used to predict outcomes of cardiac arrest prior to investment in EMS design changes that affect the alarm process, e.g. (1) static changes such as trimming the emergency call handling time or (2) dynamic changes such as location of emergency resources or which resources should carry a defibrillator. © 2013 Sund; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Source

Jenelius E.,KTH Royal Institute of Technology | Westin J.,KTH Royal Institute of Technology | Holmgren A.J.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB
International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection

This paper considers the problem of allocating finite resources among the elements of a critical infrastructure system in order to protect it from antagonistic attacks. Previous studies have assumed that the attacker has complete information about the utilities associated with attacks on each element. In reality, it is likely that the attacker's perception of the system is not as precise as the defender's, due to geographical separation from the system, secrecy, surveillance, complex system properties, etc. As a result, the attacker's actions may not be those anticipated under the assumption of complete information. We present a modeling framework that incorporates imperfect attacker perception by introducing random observation errors in a previously studied baseline model. We analyze how the perceptive ability affects the attack probabilities and the defender's disutility and optimal resource allocation. We show for example that the optimal resource allocation may differ significantly from the baseline model, that a less perceptive attacker may cause greater disutility for the defender, and that increasing the investment in an element can increase the expected disutility even in a zero-sum situation. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Source

Hansen R.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

One of the most important aims of forest fire research is how to better control forest fires. One way to attain this aim is to develop better decision tools for estimating how much water is required for extinguishing a fire with a specific set of conditions. There has in the past generally been little research conducted with respect to water requirements when suppressing a wildfire. A number of experiments were conducted in the early '70s where a spray rig with a nozzle arrangement was used in order to apply water uniformly across a fuel bed. Two studies regarding the required duration of water application related to fires in buildings were conducted in the past. Both studies were based upon statistical data from fire brigades; the duration of water application was determined as a function of the fire area. This paper encompasses an analysis of more than 64,000 wildfires occurring in Sweden between 1996 and 2009. The values calculated from the obtained formulations with regression analysis were found to be in good agreement in the following cases: The amount of water as a function of the extinguishing time, the extinguishing time as a function of the fire area; and the fire area as a function of the flame height. It was observed that the derived equations from the analysis in the above cases could provide an accurate computation. These relationships could be of considerable use when developing decision tools for wildfire suppression, optimizing the use of resources during the suppression activities. © 2012 WIT Press. Source

Moriniere L.C.E.,University of Arizona | Moriniere L.C.E.,Stockholm Environment Institute | Moriniere L.C.E.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB | Hamza M.,Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency MSB | And 2 more authors.

Debate and literature on the link between degrading environments and human mobility has been increasing exponentially. There is little concrete evidence, however, of efforts or policies that support the management of environmentally influenced mobility. Through discourse analysis using Q-methodology, this research aimed to scrutinize the standoff between opposing views under a fresh lens. One-hundred and ninety-seven experts from 49 nations completed an on-line survey asking them to sort, by level of agreement, 42 statements gleaned from the literature concerning the environment-mobility nexus. Four very different discourses emerged: determined humanists, benevolent pragmatists, cynical protectionists, and critical realists. The complexity of these discourses helps explain the stalemate while confirming the inappropriateness of one-sided terminology and linear quantifications. Despite diametrically opposed viewpoints, experts unanimously agree that human mobility is connected to environmental change. Dissection of these social perspectives builds a new foundation for the Rio?20 analysis and policy deliberations related to environmentally influenced human mobility. © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2012. Source

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