Sustainable Development Policy Institute

Islamabad, Pakistan

Sustainable Development Policy Institute

Islamabad, Pakistan
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Saeed F.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute | Saeed F.,King Abdulaziz University | Almazroui M.,King Abdulaziz University | Islam N.,King Abdulaziz University | Khan M.S.,Quaid-i-Azam University
Natural Hazards | Year: 2017

Future trends in the occurrence of heat waves (HW) over Pakistan have been presented using three regional climate models (RCMs), forced by three different global climate models (GCMs) runs under RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of RCMs are obtained from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) database. Two different approaches for the assessment of HWs are defined, namely Fixed and Relative approaches. Fixed approach is defined for a life-threatening extreme event in which the temperature can reach more than 45 °C for a continuous stretch of several days; however, Relative approach events may not be directly life-threatening, but may cause snow/ice melt flooding and impact on food security of the country in summer and winter seasons, respectively. The results indicate a consistent increase in the occurrence of HWs for both approaches. For the Fixed approach, the increase is evident in the eastern areas of Pakistan, particularly plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces which host many big cities of the country. It is argued that the effect of HWs may also be exacerbated in future due to urban heat island effect. Moreover, summer time HWs for Relative approach is most likely to increase over northern areas of the country which hosts reservoirs of snow and glacier, which may result in events like glacial lake outburst flood and snow/ice melt flooding. Furthermore, the increase in winter time HWs for Relative approach may affect negatively on the wheat production, which in turn can distress the overall food productivity and livelihoods of the country. It is concluded that this study may be a useful document for future planning in order to better adapt to these threats due to climate change. © 2017 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Almazroui M.,King Abdulaziz University | Islam M.N.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute | And 2 more authors.
Atmospheric Research | Year: 2017

The current study presents the future projection of temperature and precipitation based on ensemble from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) at seasonal and annual time scales over the Arabian Peninsula. Various analysis methods and techniques including spatial plots with robustness analysis, line plots with likelihood spread, and bar plots as well as annual cycles with likelihood ranges of both temperature and precipitation have been employed. The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region shows an increase in projected signal of temperature higher than the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP). Moreover, the northwestern part of NAP shows a large decrease in precipitation for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. However, the SAP region shows a great increase in precipitation for both the scenarios. Further, the central, southern and eastern parts of Saudi Arabia also show a tendency of increase in precipitation. Moreover at annual time scale, NAP shows a consistent statistically significant (95% level) decreasing trend of precipitation at the rate of 0.66% (− 1.18/− 0.14 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, whereas SAP shows statistically significant (99% level) increasing trend in precipitation at the rate of 1.67% (0.34/2.99 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, while the precipitation significant (99% level) increasing trend 0.86% (− 0.27/2.00 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the Arabian Peninsula. The significant (99% level) warming is projected 0.42 °C (0.23 °C/0.60 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and 0.37 °C (0.20 °C/0.53 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over NAP and SAP respectively, which is 0.39 °C (0.22 °C/0.57 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the whole Peninsula. Our results call for the development of immediate actions and policies in order to combat negative impacts of climate change over the Arabian Peninsula. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

Shafaq S.,International Islamic University, Islamabad | Khan M.S.,Quaid-i-Azam University | Khan M.S.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Physics Essays | Year: 2017

We consider left-right symmetric model where quark multiplets and scalar fields transform under an additional family dependent global U(1) symmetry. The new charges are assigned in such a way that the dimension-4 Yukawa couplings are allowed only for the third family, providing masses for top and bottom quarks. Masses for the first and second family, and resulting Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) rotations are only generated by operators of dimensionfive, six or even higher order. Under the condition of having reasonable small values for new charges, a possible pattern leading to particular textures for up and down-type Yukawa matrices is obtained. © 2017 Physics Essays Publication.

Zeshan M.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute | Ahmed V.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Environment, Development and Sustainability | Year: 2013

The present study investigates the energy, environment and growth nexus for a panel of South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The simultaneous analysis of real GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions is conducted for the period 1980-2010. Levin panel unit root test and Im test panel unit root both indicate that all the variables are I (1). In addition, Kao's panel Cointegration test specifies a stable long-term relationship between all these variables. Empirical findings show that a 1 % increase in energy consumption increases output by 0.81 % in long run whereas for the same increase in CO2 emission output falls by 0.17 % in long run. Panel Granger causality tests report short-run causality running from energy consumption to CO2 emissions and from CO2 emissions to GDP. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Almazroui M.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute | Islam M.N.,King Abdulaziz University | Alkhalaf A.K.,King Abdulaziz University
Atmospheric Research | Year: 2016

An ensemble from different climate projections is essential for attaining robust climate change information in a particular region. To achieve this purpose, the results of an ensemble combining the Global Climate Models data from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3), have been employed for the Arabian Peninsula region. Different analysis methods comprising spatial plots with robustness analysis, bar plots with likelihood ranges, as well as line plots with likelihood spread along with decadal trend analysis have been carried out at annual as well as seasonal time scales for temperature and precipitation. Results of CMIP3 data for the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios indicate robust changes in temperature and precipitation in the future climate. Spatial plots show a robust summer temperature increase over the whole Peninsula which is higher in the summer season as compared to the winter. The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region also shows a higher temperature increase in comparison with the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP) during the summer season. Moreover the NAP region, which generally comes under the influence of disturbances originating from the Mediterranean Sea region during the winter season, has shown a robust decrease in precipitation during the winter season. Contrarily the SAP region, which remains dry during the winter season and comes under the influence of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the summer season, indicates a robust increase in precipitation during the summer season. This behavior is also obvious from bar plots, which show a gradual decrease (increase) in median precipitation values towards the end of the 21st century for all the three scenarios over the NAP (SAP) region during the winter (summer) season. Moreover, smaller lengths of full as well as likely ranges in the bar plot for NAP (SAP) shows that these precipitation projections are less uncertain as compared to SAP (NAP) for the winter (summer) season. Furthermore from the line plots, a consistent decreasing trend in precipitation (1.35% per decade, significant at 99%) can be observed, while SAP shows an increasing trend in precipitation (1.21% per decade, significant at 99%). Similarly for the case of temperature, a significant (99% level) increase is projected over NAP and SAP regions with values of 0.37 and 0.35 °C per decade respectively. Considering the vulnerability of the region to climate change impacts, these results call for immediate actions in developing the long-term strategies to deal with the adverse impacts of climate change up-to the end of the 21st century at a regional level. © 2016

Manzoor R.,Economic Growth Unit | Toru S.K.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute | Ahmed V.,Economic Growth Unit
Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association | Year: 2016

Numerous health legislations concerning child mortality, maternal health and life-threatening diseases such as polio and tuberculosis are crafted in the health sector of Pakistan. A critical assessment of health legislations points to their in-effective or sub-optimal implementation. By engaging with the concept of public law, there is a strong relationship of public health and health legislations. While the basic purpose of health legislations is to craft and enforce essential health legislations for improving public health, an examination of health legislations across Pakistan indicate an extensive health engagement which is facing certain challenges indicating traditional health practices, enforcement constraints arising due to political compulsions and complexities, and systematic problems in the health sector, reflecting issue of governance. Through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews held with policy-makers, senior health officials private health entities and parliamentarian tasks forces on millennium development goals, this study engages with health-sector legislations. In so doing, it focuses on the problematic health sector and interventions. It is observed that unless an overarching legislative framework and a shift from programmatic approach to a human rights approach is adopted, the targets of millennium development goals 4, 5 and 6 would remain off-track in Pakistan. © 2016, Pakistan Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Almazroui M.,King Abdulaziz University | Islam M.N.,King Abdulaziz University | Al-Khalaf A.K.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | Year: 2015

A suitable convective parameterization scheme within Regional Climate Model version 4.3.4 (RegCM4) developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, is investigated through 12 sensitivity runs for the period 2000–2010. RegCM4 is driven with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 6-hourly boundary condition fields for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. Besides ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions data, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data is also used to assess the performance of RegCM4. Different statistical measures are taken into consideration in assessing model performance for 11 sub-domains throughout the analysis domain, out of which 7 (4) sub-domains give drier (wetter) conditions for the area of interest. There is no common best option for the simulation of both rainfall and temperature (with lowest bias); however, one option each for temperature and rainfall has been found to be superior among the 12 options investigated in this study. These best options for the two variables vary from region to region as well. Overall, RegCM4 simulates large pressure and water vapor values along with lower wind speeds compared to the driving fields, which are the key sources of bias in simulating rainfall and temperature. Based on the climatic characteristics of most of the Arab countries located within the study domain, the drier sub-domains are given priority in the selection of a suitable convective scheme, albeit with a compromise for both rainfall and temperature simulations. The most suitable option Grell over Land and Emanuel over Ocean in wet (GLEO wet) delivers a rainfall wet bias of 2.96 % and a temperature cold bias of 0.26 °C, compared to CRU data. An ensemble derived from all 12 runs provides unsatisfactory results for rainfall (28.92 %) and temperature (−0.54 °C) bias in the drier region because some options highly overestimate rainfall (reaching up to 200 %) and underestimate temperature (reaching up to −1.16 °C). Overall, a suitable option (GLEO wet) is recommended for downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model database using RegCM4 for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain for its use in future climate change impact studies. © 2015 The Author(s)

Almazroui M.,King Abdulaziz University | Islam M.N.,King Abdulaziz University | Alkhalaf A.K.,King Abdulaziz University | Saeed F.,King Abdulaziz University | And 3 more authors.
Arabian Journal of Geosciences | Year: 2016

The performance of a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climate characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been evaluated. The simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The model has been forced with the boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2010. An east–west cold bias is found in the northern part of the MENA domain in RegCM4 that is absent in the ERA-Interim driving forcings, whereas a large warm bias is found over the southern Arabian Peninsula (Yemen/Oman) for both RegCM4 and ERA-Interim. The possible causes leading to the warm bias over Yemen/Oman in the RegCM4 are discussed. The model performed well in capturing the salient features of precipitation which includes ITCZ, Mediterranean cyclones as well as precipitation minima over the deserts. Moreover, the annual cycles of precipitation and mean temperature over the prominent river basins of the region have been ably captured by the model. Temperature-precipitation relationship revealed that the ERA-Interim driving forcings stay closer to the observations; however, RegCM4 remains competent for most of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification types. Performance of the model in capturing the near surface winds and specific humidity is also presented. Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that RegCM4 is well suited to conduct long-term high-resolution climate change projection for the future period over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. © 2015, Saudi Society for Geosciences.

Prasad R.,Merit India Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | Khwaja M.A.,Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Reviews on Environmental Health | Year: 2011

The production and disposal of hazardous waste remains a substantial problem in the Asian Pacific region. Remediation of waste disposal sites, including landfill sites, is attracting considerable research attention within the region. A recognition of the need for community engagement in this process is also growing. This article reviews the work presented in the Hazardous Waste sessions at the Pacific Basin Consortium for Environment and Health held in November 2009 in Perth. © 2011 by Walter de Gruyter · Berlin · New York.

News Article | February 27, 2017

Amid the din of the excavating machines and the rumble of dumpers removing and hauling tonnes of earth, the voice of indigenous communities in Pakistan’s Sindh province has been drowned out. Nabi Bux, a resident of Sehnri Dars in the province’s Thar desert, can attest as much. His village, roughly 400km from the port city of Karachi, has been acquired by the Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) and, as a result, he and about 1,800 fellow residents are to be relocated 25km away. “Engro is making brand new homes for us, but the spiritual attachment we have to our ancestral land is lost to them,” he says. “Nor can you put a price tag to it.” The Sindh government is backing the project, under which the villagers were coerced into selling their land in the “greater national interest”. Official estimates suggest there are 175bn tonnes of lignite coal reserves beneath the 9,000 sq km stretch of land – enough to last “400 years”, according to planning and development minister Ahsan Iqbal – and the villagers were promised that the sale would bring personal as well as national prosperity . “Our elders had predicted the day would come when we’d be asked to move out,” says Dars. Serious power shortages have crippled industry – in summer, Pakistan faces a shortfall of more than 6,000 MW – and many see coal as the only resource that can save the country from total darkness. Last month, during the signing of an agreement with China for a power generation project, the electricity went off twice, plunging the conference hall into darkness for few minutes. The agreement papers were reviewed using mobile phone torches. Many are alarmed by Pakistan’s insistence on turning to coal, however. Among them is Dr Abid Suleri, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute, who likens the approach to “investing in an old gramophone”. Suleri believes coal cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to remain below 2C. “Pakistan had signed and ratified climate declarations in Paris and Morocco – what of them?” he asks. If Pakistan has to invest in coal, says Suleri, it must also invest in renewables. “We should not put ourselves in the absolute either/or situation, but adopt a more flexible one, dabbling in a good mix.” Suleri feels that, were there a need for Pakistan to stop using coal overnight, the country should be able to cope without difficulty. Yet for people living close to the dumping site in Sehnri Dars, it is living with coal rather than living without it that is the problem. “The entire village … our homes, utensils, clothes, trees, you name it … everything is covered with a thick sheet of dust due to the digging and the dumping of soil,” says Bux. “I shudder to think what will happen in June when strong gusts blow.” The relocation will not start before 2018, say SECMC. The villagers of Sehnri Dars may have acquiesced, but people in the 12 villages around Gorano have not; they feel cheated. They have been holding a sit-in outside the press club in Islamkot, an adjoining town, for more than 100 days in protest at the construction of a reservoir in Gorano which began in May last year. The reservoir will store about 30 to 35 cusecs [a unit of flow equal to one cubic foot per second] of effluent from the coal mine over the next three years. “When we found out that the water will carry 5,000 ppm [parts per million] for the total dissolved solids (TDS) we got really worried,” says Lakshman Dharmu. “In less than three years, our sweet water wells will become poisonous, rendering our land unfit either for cultivation or grazing because this water will seep and affect the groundwater,” says Dharmu. There are 30 such wells. A spokesman from the mining company says it would take 14 years for any damage to occur to land within a 1km radius. The company will not use the reservoir for more than three years. The villagers also filed a complaint in the high court in June saying that the company acquired land invoking certain sections of the Land Acquisition Act of 1894, which allows the mining authority to acquire land but only after seeking permission from the land owner. “But we never granted them permission,” says Leela Ram Manjiani, a local resident who is a lawyer and is representing the villagers. He said they were not even told. While the protest continues, the coal company is busy buying land from villagers who are willing to sell. The rest, says Mohsin Babbar of the SECMC, is government land for which they already have permission. “Of the total 532 acres, we have bought 250 acres of land from the locals; 700 acres is government land that we have permission to use. That just leaves 282 or so acres that remains disputed. We have offered them about 300 acres of pasture land not very far from where they are right now but they are not accepting this compensation,” says Babbar. The villagers do not have papers to prove it’s their land. “And those who do still have it in the names of their forefathers. To get the land transferred to their name requires a lot of money which they don’t have,” says Manjiani. “One the one side the locals are uneducated, belong to a religious minority and do not really have a voice and on the other side is a powerful entity,” says Suleri, who fears this will give the state an upper hand and the infractions of the mining company will be ignored by the state which is fully supporting the project and marginalise the indigenous people. “We will not back off, we will go to the supreme court,” says Manjiani, adding: “We have full faith in the courts.”

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