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Linkov I.,U.S. Army | Wood M.D.,U.S. Army | Ditmer R.,STRATCON LLC | Cox A.,Cox Associates Consulting | Ross R.,Risk science Branch
Environment Systems and Decisions | Year: 2013

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA). Source


Lambert J.H.,University of Virginia | Karvetski C.W.,University of Virginia | Ditmer R.D.,STRATCON LLC | Abdallah T.,Engineer Research and Development Center | And 2 more authors.
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security | Year: 2011

We describe recent efforts integrating scenario analysis with multiple criteria decision analysis in support of strategic planning for the energy security of industrial and military installations. Energy security is an increasingly important issue for industrial and military installations. Disruptions of the grid and other outages for key buildings, facilities, and entire installations jeopardize critical activities and missions. Cost and supply volatilities of traditional energy sources and backup technologies increase the need for innovation in meeting energy demands. Part of such demands should be met with renewable energy sources. Each of the hundreds of installations of a large industrial or military organization presents a unique challenge in the attainment of energy security goals. This Chapter describes a framework to highlight what science, engineering, and other conditions most influence the planning of strategic investments in innovation for energy security. The framework aims to avoid surprises that could result from a failure to account systematically for the emergent conditions that affect industrial and military installations, including emergent conditions of regulation, technologies, economics, geopolitics, environment, and other topics. Science, engineering, and other investigative resources can be focused on the future conditions that most matter to the selection of technologies and their operations plans. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011. Source


Lambert J.H.,University of Virginia | Karvetski C.W.,George Mason University | Spencer D.K.,U.S. Army | Liberi D.M.,Us Agency For International Development | And 5 more authors.
Journal of Infrastructure Systems | Year: 2012

The Afghanistan National Development Strategy identified billions of dollars of needs for transportation, water, energy, telecommunications, and other necessary infrastructure development for the rebuilding of Afghanistan. With economic sustainability as a primary aim, the coordination and prioritization of investments has been a challenge in part because of Afghanistan's volatile security situation along with the intricacies of the negotiating and coordinating efforts of numerous stakeholders. An understanding of the contributions of infrastructure systems and associated projects to the national development strategy is needed. This paper formulates a scenario-informed multicriteria approach to prioritize major project investments for infrastructure development subject to deep, nonprobabilistic uncertainties. The methods are inclusive of stakeholder values and accounts for deep uncertainties in governance, security, economy, environment, workforce, and other topics. The methods are applied in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province to assist in the selection among twenty-seven candidate infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to potential refugee immigration among other emergent conditions. The paper describes the relationships of selected projects to strategic goals while facilitating collaboration among government and nongovernment investors, donors, technologists, and other stakeholders. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers. Source


Linkov I.,U.S. Army | Trump B.D.,U.S. Army | Ditmer R.,STRATCON LLC | Hazle M.,STRATCON LLC
Environmental Sciences Europe | Year: 2014

A combination of 20th century warfare alongside the storage of and frequent testing of munitions by various national armed forces has contributed to a legacy of unexploded ordnance, munitions, and explosives of concern (MEC). The presence of such latent munitions has potentially debilitating or even fatal effects upon a generally unsuspecting stakeholders where communities may be unaware of the risks posed by buried shells, bombs, and other ordnance on both public and privately held properties. As such, various governments have undertaken differing initiatives to assess, mitigate, and manage the risks associated with these munitions. MEC remediation is generally tailored to each nation's unique historical experience with munitions and ordnance and is highly dependent not only on the type and quantity of MEC but also on the existing or proposed land use of the parcel as well. This paper compares the MEC management efforts of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada with regard to their MEC monitoring, detection, and removal methods in order to identify successful policies and procedures that can inform international MEC management. © 2014, Linkov et al.; licensee Springer. Source

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