Çankaya, Turkey
Çankaya, Turkey

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Berument H.,Bilkent University | Dincer N.N.,State Planning Organization | Mustafaoglu Z.,The World Bank
Journal of International Trade and Economic Development | Year: 2011

Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important component of growth for most countries. This article assesses the role of macroeconomic instability on TFP growth. We consider volatility in inflation, openness of an economy and financial market deepness as measures of macroeconomic instability. Empirical evidence provided from Turkey suggests that volatility of openness and financial market deepness reduce TFP growth, whereas volatility of inflation increases TFP growth. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.


Alpas H.,Middle East Technical University | Kiymaz T.,State Planning Organization
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security | Year: 2012

The recent food and financial crises developed from different underlying causes but intertwined in complex ways through their implications not only for -financial and economic stability, food security, political security; but also for greater diligence in food defense against deliberate contamination with either economic or terrorist motives. Food security is a hot topic therefore; its disruption via environmental breakdown is an obvious cause for terrorism. The intentional contamination of the food supply poses a real threat to society. It has the potential to disrupt food -distribution, loss of consumer confidence in government and the food supply, business failures, trade restrictions, and adverse effects on the economy. The global food system is very vulnerable, both structural and social. The bulk production and need for rapid -production, sourcing and distribution at both national and international level is beyond the limits of routine food safety measures of the industry; especially against high-impact deliberate contamination. Adapting to the additional threats to food security arising from major environmental changes requires an integrated food system approach - strengthening the sector's infrastructure against deliberate contamination - thereby making the food system less vulnerable to attack(s) or destructive economic outcomes. In this respect vulnerability assessment arouses as an alternative to address food -supply-chain security by determining the selection of countermeasures to minimize or eliminate vulnerabilities as well as enhancing the capability to identify, respond and recover from intentional contamination and emergency responses.


Alpas H.,Middle East Technical University | Kiymaz T.,State Planning Organization
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security | Year: 2011

Food security requires appropriate agricultural management and utilization of natural resources and eco-systems, as well as good governance and sustainable political systems. Food security is directly affected by climate change effects that lead to concerns in rural livelihoods. Bio-energy developments present both opportunities and challenges for socioeconomic development and the environment. In that sense, bio-energy solutions should strive to be environmentally sensitive and have a positive social impact. On the other side, trade policy enforced via World Trade Organisation (WTO) is expected to play a role in mitigating and adapting to global climate change by increasing incentives to use the most energy efficient environmental goods and services. The recent food and financial crises developed from different underlying causes but intertwined in complex ways through their implications for financial and economic stability, food security, and political security. As the majority of the poor in the world are considered to be depended on agriculture, the severeness of the climate change effects may lead to food system risks and more of the societal and political risks can be incurred in the future. The potential of food price volatility and climate change leading a rise in food insecurity among the poor groups is significant, and thus, can be expected to bring social disturbances and terrorism in the short to long term. Food security is a hot topic. Therefore, its disruption via environmental breakdown is an obvious cause for terrorism. Although the biotechnology revolution is very relevant to the problems of food security, poverty reduction, and environmental conservation in the developing world, it raises many questions relating to ethics, intellectual property rights, and bio-safety. Some policy alternatives for environment friendly support of food security consist in increasing productivity on the non-forest fertile soils and in animal production systems or to reduce postharvest losses, providing greater incentives for agriculture to use water more efficiently, promoting larger investments in agricultural research to raise production with environment friendly techniques. Global environmental change (GEC) will have serious consequences for food security, particularly for more vulnerable groups. Adapting to the additional threats to food security arising from major environmental changes requires an integrated food system approach, not just a focus on agricultural practices. In this respect, vulnerability assessment could help to address food supply-chain security by determining the selection of countermeasures and emergency responses. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.


Ari I.,State Planning Organization | Aydinalp Koksal M.,Hacettepe University
Energy Policy | Year: 2011

In this study, electricity generation associated CO 2 emissions and fuel-specific CO 2 emission factors are calculated based on the IPCC methodology using the data of fossil-fueled power plants that ran between 2001 and 2008 in Turkey. The estimated CO 2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants between 2009 and 2019 are also calculated using the fuel-specific CO 2 emission factors and data on the projected generation capacity of the power plants that are planned to be built during this period. Given that the total electricity supply (planned+existing) will not be sufficient to provide the estimated demand between 2011 and 2019, four scenarios based on using different fuel mixtures are developed to overcome this deficiency. The results from these scenarios show that a significant decrease in the amount of CO 2 emissions from electricity generation can be achieved if the share of the fossil-fueled power plants is lowered. The Renewable Energy Scenario is found to result in the lowest CO 2 emissions between 2009 and 2019. The associated CO 2 emissions calculated based on this scenario are approximately 192 million tons lower than that of the Business As Usual Scenario for the estimation period. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Dincer N.,State Planning Organization | Kandil M.,International Monetary Fund
Journal of International Trade and Economic Development | Year: 2011

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

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