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Sims M.,University of Bath | Maxwell R.,South West Public Health Observatory | Bauld L.,University of Bath | Gilmore A.,University of Bath | Gilmore A.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
BMJ (Online) | Year: 2010

Objective: To measure the short term impact on hospital admissions for myocardial infarction of the introduction of smoke-free legislation in England on 1 July 2007. Design: An interrupted time series design with routinely collected hospital episode statistics data. Analysis of admissions from July 2002 to September 2008 (providing five years' data from before the legislation and 15 months' data from after) using segmented Poisson regression. Setting: England. Population: All patients aged 18 or older living in England with an emergency admission coded with a primary diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Main outcome measures: Weekly number of completed hospital admissions. Results: After adjustment for secular and seasonal trends and variation in population size, there was a small but significant reduction in the number of emergency admissions for myocardial infarction after the implementation of smoke-free legislation (-2.4%, 95% confidence interval -4.06% to -0.66%, P=0.007). This equates to 1200 fewer emergency admissions for myocardial infarction (1600 including readmissions) in the first year after legislation. The reduction in admissions was significant in men (3.1%, P=0.001) and women (3.8%, P=0.007) aged 60 and over, and men (3.5%, P<0.01) but not women (2.5% P=0.38) aged under 60. Conclusion: This study adds to a growing body of evidence that smoke-free legislation leads to reductions in myocardial infarctions. It builds on previous work by showing that such declines are observed even when underlying reductions in admissions and potential confounders are controlled for. The considerably smaller decline in admissions observed in England compared with many other jurisdictions probably reflects aspects of the study design and the relatively low levels of exposure to secondhand smoke in England before the legislation.


Murtagh F.E.M.,Kings College London | Bausewein C.,Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich | Verne J.,South West Public Health Observatory | Iris Groeneveld E.,Kings College London | And 2 more authors.
Palliative Medicine | Year: 2014

Background: Understanding the need for palliative care is essential in planning services. Aim: To refine existing methods of estimating population-based need for palliative care and to compare these methods to better inform their use. Design: (1) Refinement of existing population-based methods, based on the views of an expert panel, and (2) application/comparison of existing and refined approaches in an example dataset. Existing methods vary in approach and in data sources. (a) Higginson used cause of death/symptom prevalence, and using pain prevalence, estimates that 60.28% (95% confidence interval = 60.20%-60.36%) of all deaths need palliative care, (b) Rosenwax used the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems-10th Revision (ICD-10) causes of death/hospital-use data, and estimates that 37.01% (95% confidence interval = 36.94%-37.07%) to 96.61% (95% confidence interval = 96.58%-96.64%) of deaths need palliative care, and (c) Gómez-Batiste used percentage of deaths plus chronic disease data, and estimates that 75% of deaths need palliative care. Setting/participants: All deaths in England, January 2006-December 2008, using linked mortality and hospital episode data. Results: Expert panel review identified changing practice (e.g. extension of palliative care to more non-cancer conditions), changing patterns of hospital/home care and multiple, rather than single, causes of death as important. We therefore refined methods (using updated ICD-10 causes of death, underlying/contributory causes, and hospital use) to estimate a minimum of 63.03% (95% confidence interval = 62.95%-63.11%) of all deaths needing palliative care, with lower and upper mid-range estimates between 69.10% (95% confidence interval = 69.02%-69.17%) and 81.87% (95% confidence interval = 81.81%-81.93%). Conclusions: Death registration data using both underlying and contributory causes can give reliable estimates of the populationbasedneed for palliative care, without needing symptom or hospital activity data. In high-income countries, 69%-82% of those who die need palliative care. © 2013 The Author(s).


Vesey S.G.,University of Liverpool | McCabe J.E.,University of Liverpool | Hounsome L.,South West Public Health Observatory | Fowler S.,British Association of Urological Surgeons
BJU International | Year: 2012

OBJECTIVE To undertake a detailed analysis of the British Association of Urological Surgeons (BAUS) Section of Oncology Complex Operations Database to report UK outcomes of radical prostatectomy (RP) with particular reference to the case volume of the operating surgeon. MATERIALS AND METHODS All RP entries on the BAUS complex operations database were extracted from its commencement in January 2004 to September 2009. Patient age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, clinical tumour stage and biopsy Gleason score were analyzed together with operative variables, including the surgical approach, lymphadenectomy status, blood loss, hospital length of stay and individual surgeon case volume. The postoperative variables assessed included surgical specimen Gleason score and pathological tumour stage, prostate weight and the presence of positive surgical margins (PSM), as well as evidence of biochemical recurrence. RESULTS A total of 8032 RP cases were entered on the database and Follow-up data was available on 4206 cases. Mean patient age was 61.8 years and the mean presenting PSA was 8.3 ng/mL. Open RP procedures were performed on 5429 patients and laparoscopic RP on 2219. The positive surgical margin (PSM) rate for the entire series was 38%. Analysis of PSM by pathological stage revealed a pT2 PSM rate of 24%. Multivariate analysis of variables which might affect PSM revealed pre-operative clinical TNM stage, surgeon case volume, RP specimen Gleason score and pathological TNM stage were significant parameters (P < 0.01). When prostate weight and PSM status were analysed, these was a significant association between smaller prostate weight and PSM status. Interestingly, 45% of high grade Gleason 8-10 needle biopsy cancers were downgraded to Gleason scores 7 or less on RP analysis. Analysis of annual surgeon caseload revealed that 54% of surgeons performed an average of less than 10 procedures per annum and 6% of surgeons performed an average of 30 or more procedures per annum. When individual outcome variables where examined against surgeon case activity it was demonstrated that outcomes are clearly improved beyond 20 cases and there is a trend to continued improvement up to the series maximum of 40 cases per annum. CONCLUSIONS High volume surgeons have less peri-operative and postoperative complications and better surgical and disease-free outcomes than low volume surgeons. In the UK, raising the current minimum Improving Outcomes Guidance threshold from five RP cases per surgeon per annum to no less than 20 (and ideally to 35 or more cases per annum) could potentially improve overall outcomes. © 2011 BJU International.


Gao W.,Kings College London | Ho Y.K.,Kings College London | Verne J.,South West Public Health Observatory | Glickman M.,Office for National Statistics - ONS | Higginson I.J.,Kings College London
PLoS Medicine | Year: 2013

Background: Most patients with cancer prefer to die at home or in a hospice, but hospitals remain the most common place of death (PoD).This study aims to explore the changing time trends of PoD and the associated factors, which are essential for end-of-life care improvement. Methods and Findings: The study analysed all cancer deaths in England collected by the Office for National Statistics during 1993-2010 (n = 2,281,223). Time trends of age- and gender-standardised proportion of deaths in individual PoDs were evaluated using weighted piecewise linear regression. Variables associated with PoD (home or hospice versus hospital) were determined using proportion ratio (PR) derived from the log-binomial regression, adjusting for clustering effects. Hospital remained the most common PoD throughout the study period (48.0%; 95% CI 47.9%-48.0%), followed by home (24.5%; 95% CI 24.4%-24.5%), and hospice (16.4%; 95% CI 16.3%-16.4%). Home and hospice deaths increased since 2005 (0.87%; 95% CI 0.74%-0.99%/year, 0.24%; 95% CI 0.17%-0.32%/year, respectively, p<0.001), while hospital deaths declined (-1.20%; 95% CI -1.41 to -0.99/year, p<0.001). Patients who died from haematological cancer (PRs 0.46-0.52), who were single, widowed, or divorced (PRs 0.75-0.88), and aged over 75 (PRs 0.81-0.84 for 75-84; 0.66-0.72 for 85+) were less likely to die in home or hospice (p<0.001; reference groups: colorectal cancer, married, age 25-54). There was little improvement in patients with lung cancer of dying in home or hospice (PRs 0.87-0.88). Marital status became the second most important factor associated with PoD, after cancer type. Patients from less deprived areas (higher quintile of the deprivation index) were more likely to die at home or in a hospice than those from more deprived areas (lower quintile of the deprivation index; PRs 1.02-1.12). The analysis is limited by a lack of data on individual patients' preferences for PoD or a clinical indication of the most appropriate PoD. Conclusions: More efforts are needed to reduce hospital deaths. Health care facilities should be improved and enhanced to support the increased home and hospice deaths. People who are single, widowed, or divorced should be a focus for end-of-life care improvement, along with known at risk groups such as haematological cancer, lung cancer, older age, and deprivation. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. © 2013 Gao et al.


Sleeman K.E.,Kings College London | Ho Y.K.,Kings College London | Verne J.,South West Public Health Observatory | Glickman M.,Office for National Statistics - ONS | And 3 more authors.
Palliative Medicine | Year: 2013

Background: Little is known about place of death in chronic neurological diseases. Mortality statistics are ideal for examining trends in place of death, but analyses are limited by coding rule changes. Aim: To examine the relationship between place of death and underlying cause of death in Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis and motor neurone disease and the impact of coding rule changes on analysis of place of death. Design: Population-based study. Proportion ratios for death in hospice, home, care home and hospital were calculated according to underlying cause of death, using multivariable Poisson regression. Participants: Deaths in England (1993-2010) with any mention of Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis or motor neurone disease as a cause of death, identified from national mortality data. Results: In this study, 125,242 patients with Parkinson's disease, 23,501 with multiple sclerosis, and 27,030 with motor neurone disease were included. Home deaths ranged from 9.7% (Parkinson's disease) to 27.1% (motor neurone disease), hospice deaths ranged from 0.6% (Parkinson's disease) to 11.2% (motor neurone disease) and hospital deaths ranged from 43.4% (Parkinson's disease) to 55.8% (multiple sclerosis). In Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis, cancer as underlying cause of death increased likelihood of hospice death (proportion ratio (PR): 18.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 16.1-22.0; 8.88, 95% CI = 7.49-10.5) and home death (PR: 1.91, 95% CI = 1.80-2.04; 1.71, 95% CI = 1.56-1.88). Dementia as underlying cause of death increased likelihood of care home death in Parkinson's disease (PR: 1.25, 95% CI = 1.19-1.32), multiple sclerosis (PR: 1.73, 95% CI = 1.22-2.45) and motor neurone disease (PR: 2.36, 95% CI = 1.31-4.27). Conclusions: Underlying cause of death has a marked effect on place of death. The effects of coding rule changes are an essential consideration for all research using underlying cause of death to study place of death. © The Author(s) 2013.

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