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da Cunha A.C.,Federal University of Amapá | Vilhena J.E.S.,Institute Pesquisas Cientificas e Tecnologicas do Estado do Amapa NHMET IEPA | dos Santos E.S.,Federal University of Amapá | Saraiva J.M.B.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | And 9 more authors.
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia | Year: 2014

The objective of this investigation was to analyse the extreme river flows which have occurred between 9 and 14 April 2011 in the Rio Araguari-AP. The methodology consisted of three main steps: 1) re-analysis of precipitation estimated by the BRAMS (Brazilian Development in Regional Atmospheric Model System) model using the synoptic of the same period as support, 2) analysis of streamflow in sections of hydrological monitoring in Porto Platon, Capivari and Serra do Navio (ADCP-Accustic Profiller Doppler Current); 3) statistic analysis of the time series of maximum river flows in Porto Platon using Gumbel distribution. It was observed that the BRAMS system partially captured the standard precipitation when compared with the synoptic analysis and literature data, but the extreme hydrological responses representation still needs an optimization. In Porto Platon a flow record of 4036 m3 /s was recorded, whose behavior was analyzed from the perspective of the available monitoring mechanisms in the State. It was concluded that such extreme events are poorly detectable and offer considerable risks to users of the basin. The stream flow prediction based on available hydrological series was 100 years recurrence, but the analysis have revealed that this period would be 360 years, indicating significant deficiency of the prediction system of extreme events in the State. © 2014, Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia. All rights reserved.


de Loureiro R.S.,University of the State of Amazonas | Saraiva J.M.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | Saraiva I.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | Senna R.C.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | Fredo A.S.,University of the State of Amazonas
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia | Year: 2014

The importance of weather forecasts for very short periods of time (nowcasting) has increased in recent years due to the considerable increase in natural disasters such as floods, landslides, wind gusts, etc. In this context, the use of weather radar equipment has great operational utility in the detection and monitoring of adverse short notice meteorological phenomena. The metropolitan region of Belém (RMB) is one of the most populous regions of the Amazon. In recent years unplanned urban occupation is taking place, being probably one factor that causes troubles for the population that suffers due to downpours and flooding. The 2009 year extreme events were identified and analyzed using the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). The results show that 66% of severe events have occurred during the rainy season, which was due to three major weather systems: the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), its interaction with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and Squall Lines (LI) originated mostly from the sea breeze. The results also show that smaller-scale systems, like the lines, have higher severity because they cause higher rates of hourly precipitation. © 2014, Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia. All rights reserved.


Leivas J.F.,EMBRAPA - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária | Ribeiro G.G.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | Saraiva I.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | Santo J.S.E.,Sistema de Protecao da Amazonia SIPAM | And 2 more authors.
Acta Amazonica | Year: 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the model of numerical forecast BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) from the comparison between the forecast and observed rainfall (data of NCEP/NOAA (National Centers of Environmental Predictions/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and of TRMM satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)). The model used the initial conditions of global model of NCEP/NOAA e do CPTEC/INPE. Comparisons between predicted values and observed through were the root medium square error (RMSE) and of medium error (ME) for the forecast of rainfall of 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, of the period November of 2008 to March of 2009. The results showed that the BRAMS model had better performance when treated with global model data from NCEP / NOAA compared with the outputs from the assimilation of the global model of CPTEC / INPE.

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