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Li F.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center | Zhang J.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making | Hao Z.,Shanxi Province Meteorological Science Research Institute | Wu Y.,Shanxi Climate Center | Zhou J.,Taiyuan Meteorological Bureau
Acta Geographica Sinica | Year: 2015

Based on the monthly rainfall data, the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) of NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi, trend analysis and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of the seasonal rainfall during recent 56 years to ENSO events in this province. The results are shown as follows: (1) In La Nina years, the annual, autumn and winter rainfall had increasing trends, while the spring and summer rainfall decreased. In El Nino years, the spring rainfall had increasing trends, but the annual, summer, autumn and winter rainfall decreased. In the year after a La Nina event, the winter rainfall would increase, but the annual, spring, summer and autumn rainfall decreased. (2) The annual rainfall showed that there was a positive correlation between Pacific SST of the previous year in Nino 3 and 4 regions and annual rainfall in Shanxi. If Pacific SST of the previous year was higher (or lower), the rainfall in Shanxi would be correspondingly more (or less) than that in a normal year. The annual rainfall was negatively correlated to Pacific SST of the same year in Nino 3 region. If Pacific SST of a year is higher (or lower), the annual rainfall in Shanxi would be less (or more) than that in a normal year. (3) SOI was significantly and negatively correlated to the rainfall trend index of most parts of Shanxi province. The correlation coefficients in some parts of the central-western and easternnorthern Shanx were over -0.5, and the monthly rainfall of these areas would be less (or more) if SOI was positive (or negative). ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved. Source


Xiao J.,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences | Xiao J.,Zhejiang Climate Center | Huo Z.,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences | Yao Y.,Zhejiang Climate Center | And 4 more authors.
Shengtai Xuebao/ Acta Ecologica Sinica | Year: 2013

Cotton is an important economic crop and ranks first among economic crops in planting area in China. There are five cotton areas which are located at South China, North China, Yangtze River basin, Yellow River basin and North-West arid regions of China. The water requirement of the whole growth stage of cotton is different in different area, which is specified as 400mm to 1000mm or more. Drought is the key factor that hinders the yield and quality of cotton in the North and North-West of China. Also the frequency of drought in different growth stages is high in some regions because of the temporal mismatch between precipitation and water-consumption of cotton and local people have to irrigate in arid years. It is believed that conventional irrigation is a luxury use of water and can be reduced without much effect on economic yield. Methods that may cut down irrigation are of considerable interest and should be explored. To optimize irrigation and provide a technical guide on agricultural production, the water-saving irrigation meteorological grading indexes in different growth stages of cotton are built in this paper, based on the farmland water balance principle, the theory of insufficient irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation. Multidimensional information including daily meteorological data from 347 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2008, soil moisture data every ten-day from 89 agro-meteorological stations from 1993 to 2008 (in which 26 agro-meteorological stations from 1980 to 2008), irrigation amount and yield data are collected to analyze the relationship between the moisture deficiency rates, the quantity of water deficit and yield reduction rates of sowing -jointing stage, jointing -heading, heading-mature period and the whole growth stage of cotton referring to the product-water function (FAO-1979). Results indicate that water-saving irrigation meteorological grading indexes from I-III level of moisture deficiency rate(D)are respectively for 15% ≤D < 30%, 30%≤D < 45% and ≥45%, corresponding to 1-2 irrigations(600m3/hm2 each time), 3-4 irrigations and ≥4 irrigations for the quantity of water deficit (secondary indicators) for the whole growth stage of cotton. For sowing-budding stage, the indicators are respectively for 20%≤D < 35%, 35%≤D < 50% and ≥50%, corresponding to 0.5 irrigation, 1 irrigations and >1 irrigations. For budding-flowering stage, the indicators are respectively for 20%≤ D < 35%, 35%≤ D < 45% and ≥45%, corresponding to 1 irrigation, 1-2 irrigation and >2 irrigation. For flowering-harvesting stage, the indicators are respectively for 20%≤ D < 35%, 35% ≤ D < 50% and ≥50%, corresponding to 1 irrigation, 1-2 irrigation and >2 irrigations. The index system set up in the paper is elaborated for the first time as a drought monitoring index to explore its applicability in different development stages of cotton. Besides that the drought warning and forecasting is developed by considering the weather forecast and water consumption of crops which is calculated by referring the FAO-56 function. the conclusions are based on the current level of production and management, natural water supplies and artificial irrigation. In this paper, we introduce the product-water function as the theoretical basis and use multisource data to prove these conclusions. However, there are some limitations. Firstly, we use the referring value of FAO-56 to represent the crop-coefficient approximately. Secondly, we use the precipitation index to replace the effective precipitation, ignoring the precipitation type. Thirdly, we use trend yield under drought year to express approximately the maximum yield by referring the FAO-1979 function. Actual irrigation capacity and detailed indexes should be considered in further studies. Source


Xiao J.-J.,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences | Huo Z.-G.,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences | Li N.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making | Xin M.-Y.,ShenYang Agricultural University | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Natural Disasters | Year: 2011

Achievements and recent progress of research on meteorological and environmental causes of wheat scab occurrence and prevalence at home and abroad were summarized. The causes include single and multi-meteorological factors and large-scale climate factors. The results show that temperature, humility, light, wind and other meteorological factors, in a certain extent, determine the occurrence and prevalence of wheat scab, especially when the temperature, humidity, other meteorological factors and the numbers of bacteria, to certain degree, coincide with the flowering period, it will lead to mass epidemic of wheat scab disease ; El Nino, SST anomalies play an precursory roles in the occurrence of scab epidemics ; based on combination of the ground meteorological data, SST data and 500HPa high-altitude circulation data, the established prediction model can predict wheat scab better. This paper also points out the shortcomings of the existing research and makes a prediction about the future development of research. Source


Li F.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center | Zhang J.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making | Wu Y.,Shanxi Climate Center | Zhou J.,Taiyuan Municipal Meteorological Bureau | Cheng Y.,Taiyuan Municipal Meteorological Bureau
Acta Geographica Sinica | Year: 2013

Based on each day's minimum ground temperature data of 62 meteorological stations in Shanxi from 1961 to 2010, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the province's last frost dates are analyzed. The results show: (1) Shanxi's average last frost date is April 12, the last frost date of the southern part is generally earlier than that of the north, but for a particular site, "early" or "late" of the last frost date also depends on its topography and location. The average last frost date has obvious positive correlations with altitude and latitude, and the correlation with altitude is closer than that with latitude. (2) M-K mutation test shows that the last frost date of most meteorological stations had obvious mutations from 1975 to 1996, and that the mutation year has negative correlations with altitude and latitude, and that the correlation with latitude is closer than that with altitude. (3) The changing trend of last frost dates has apparent regional difference, the large advancing scope region is located in the central-western and southern parts, while the large delaying scope region is observed in the northwestern and central-eastern parts. The changing trend has negative correlations with altitude and latitude, and the correlation with altitude is closer than that with latitude. (4) Probability of the normal last frost in this province is 54%-74%, and the maximum probability appears in the southeastern and northern-central parts. Probability of the later last frost in Shanxi is 2%-22%, and the maximum probability appears in the northern and southeastern parts of the province. Probability of the latest last frost in Shanxi is 14%-36%, and the larger probability area is located in the northern-central and central-western parts. (5) Altitude has negative correlation with later last frost probability, and latitude has positive correlation with the latest last frost probability, and there is little correlation between altitude (or latitude) and normal last frost probability. Latitude has greater impacts on all degrees' last frost probability than altitude. Source


Qian J.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making | Li N.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making | Han P.,Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making
Acta Geographica Sinica | Year: 2014

Based on the daily mean temperature data of 70 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1970 to 2012, the negative accumulated temperature in winter, average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature were computed and their changing trends were analyzed in this paper using linear trend estimation method, and their abrupt change points were observed by means of accumulated variance method and contours of the negative accumulated temperature in winter, average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature were compared respectively after being divided into two groups according to the abrupt change points. The results showed that the negative accumulated temperature in winter showed a remarkable decrease, and the average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature did not increase significantly. Changes were found between the two groups, the negative accumulated temperature decreased by 103.4℃, and the average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature rose by 0.7℃ and 0.9℃, respectively. The negative accumulated temperature and extreme minimum temperature played a key role, which are the thresholds that the winter wheat Province could be planted or not. Under climatic warming, the winter wheat cultivable area and the reliable planting area expanded by 2.9×106 hm2 (increased by 52%) and 2.3×106 hm2 (rose by 79%), respectively. Source

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