Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration

Shanghai, China

Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration

Shanghai, China
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Yue C.J.,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration | Yue C.J.,Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique CMA | Lu W.S.,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology | Li X.,The Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Journal of Tropical Meteorology | Year: 2010

This study revises Weare's latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare's scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak's scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak's scheme and the revised Weare's scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak's scheme and the revised Weare's scheme are referred to as the ZCW0and ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include: (1) The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; (2) The prediction skill of the Niño3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; (3) The analysis of El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Niña events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting El Niño.


Wen Y.-Q.,Wuhan University of Technology | Wu L.-C.,Wuhan University of Technology | Chen P.-Y.,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration
Dalian Haishi Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Dalian Maritime University | Year: 2010

The best track data of tropical cyclone(TC) provided by CMA over the northern west Pacific including the South China Sea from 1949 to 20 08 were employed to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of TCs' impact frequency on sea routes of China coastal areas. Results show that TCs' impact frequency has obvious periodic fluctuation. The duration of peaks (about 6 years) is only a half of that of troughs (about 12 years). During August, TCs have the most frequent impacts on sea routes of China coastal areas. However, the TCs created in July have the greatest possible impact. The affected area is distributed in costal area from Hainan to Taiwan Straits, especially in east area of Hainan between 18°N-21°N. The most frequent area has the obvious tendency of moving toward north.


Wu L.-C.,Wuhan University of Technology | Wen Y.-Q.,Wuhan University of Technology | Chen P.-Y.,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration | Ji Y.-Q.,Zhejiang Institute of Communications
Wuhan Ligong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Wuhan University of Technology | Year: 2011

There are differences between the hazard-affected of tropical cyclone in navigation environment and others. In this paper, tropical cyclone's wind, rainfall, wave, port potential vulnerability and the level of against typhoon are chosen as evaluation index to build the evaluation model of tropical cyclone disaster on navigation environment of costal port, using AHP and an algorithm to aggregate thelinguistic opinions of a homogeneous/heterogeneous group of experts. Some tropical cyclone which affect Hong Kong port are chosen as examples to do the experimental using this model. The relevant departments can formulate the emergency plan and deployment the emergency rescue accroding to the evaluation results of the model, because the evaluation index can be forecasted.


Wu L.,Wuhan University of Technology | Wen Y.,Wuhan University of Technology | Chen P.,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration
Wuhan Ligong Daxue Xuebao (Jiaotong Kexue Yu Gongcheng Ban)/Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Transportation Science and Engineering) | Year: 2011

Using the wind field data observed by Zhejiang weather stations, the risk probability of the maximum wind speed and the days of gale wind of Zhejiang Province as well as it's coastal area and its spatial distribution were analyzed based on the information diffusion theory. The results showed that the maximum wind speed which occurred once in 10 years is 10~20m/s in the majority of Zhejiang interior region, and in middle coastal 30~40m/s. The risk probability in July to September is higher than other months. The risk probability of strong gale or stronger is lower in winter and summer than in spring and autumn. The risk probability that the days of the maximum wind above 13.9m/s reach 6 or 12d per month has obvious seasonal characteristic: Risk is higer in spring in Shengsi station; the higher risk months is from October to next March in Dachen island.

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