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Levy D.T.,University of Baltimore | Levy D.T.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Mabry P.L.,U.S. National Institutes of Health | Graham A.L.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | And 2 more authors.
American Journal of Public Health | Year: 2010

Objectives. We used a simulation model to analyze whether the Healthy People 2010 goal of reducing smoking prevalence from the current 19.8% rate to 12% by 2010 could be accomplished by increasing quit attempts, increasing the use of treatments, or increasing the effectiveness of treatment. Methods. We expanded on previous versions of the tobacco control simulation model SimSmoke to assess the effects of an Increase in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness to reduce smoking prevalence. In the model, we considered increases in each of these parameters individually and in combination. Results. Individually, 100% increases in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness reduced the projected 2020 prevalence to 13.9%, 16.7%, and 15.9%, respectively. With a combined 100% increase in all components, the goal of a 12% adult smoking prevalence could be reached by 2012. Conclusions. If we are to come close to reaching Healthy People 2010 goals in the foreseeable future, we must not only induce quit attempts but also increase treatment use and effectiveness. Simulation models provide a useful tool for evaluating tne potential to reach public health targets. Source


Levy D.T.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Mabry P.L.,U.S. National Institutes of Health | Graham A.L.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | Orleans C.T.,Robert Wood Johnson Foundation | Abrams D.B.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies
American Journal of Preventive Medicine | Year: 2010

Background: Healthy People (HP2010) set as a goal to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. Purpose: This paper uses simulation modeling to examine the effects of three tobacco control policies and cessation treatment policies-alone and in conjunction-on population smoking prevalence. Methods: Building on previous versions of the SimSmoke model, the effects of a defined set of policies on quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness are estimated as potential levers to reduce smoking prevalence. The analysis considers the effects of (1) price increases through cigarette tax increases, (2) smokefree indoor air laws, (3) mass media/educational policies, and (4) evidence-based and promising cessation treatment policies. Results: Evidence-based cessation treatment policies have the strongest effect, boosting the population quit rate by 78.8% in relative terms. Treatment policies are followed by cigarette tax increases (65.9%); smokefree air laws (31.8%); and mass media/educational policies (18.2%). Relative to the status quo in 2020, the model projects that smoking prevalence is reduced by 14.3% through a nationwide tax increase of $2.00, by 7.2% through smokefree laws, by 4.7% through mass media/educational policies, and by 16.5% through cessation treatment policies alone. Implementing all of the above policies at the same time would increase the quit rate by 296%, such that the HP2010 smoking prevalence goal of 12% is reached by 2013. Conclusions: The impact of a combination of policies led to some surprisingly positive possible futures in lowering smoking prevalence to 12% within just several years. Simulation models can be a useful tool for evaluating complex scenarios in which policies are implemented simultaneously, and for which there are limited data. © 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Source


Abrams D.B.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | Graham A.L.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | Levy D.T.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Mabry P.L.,U.S. National Institutes of Health | Orleans C.T.,Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
American Journal of Preventive Medicine | Year: 2010

Only large increases in adult cessation will rapidly reduce population smoking prevalence. Evidence-based smoking-cessation treatments and treatment policies exist but are underutilized. More needs to be done to coordinate the widespread, efficient dissemination and implementation of effective treatments and policies. This paper is the first in a series of three to demonstrate the impact of an integrated, comprehensive systems approach to cessation treatment and policy. This paper provides an analytic framework and selected literature review that guide the two subsequent computer simulation modeling papers to show how critical leverage points may have an impact on reductions in smoking prevalence. Evidence is reviewed from the U.S. Public Health Service 2008 clinical practice guideline and other sources regarding the impact of five cessation treatment policies on quit attempts, use of evidence-based treatment, and quit rates. Cessation treatment policies would: (1) expand cessation treatment coverage and provider reimbursement; (2) mandate adequate funding for the use and promotion of evidence-based state-sponsored telephone quitlines; (3) support healthcare systems changes to prompt, guide, and incentivize tobacco treatment; (4) support and promote evidence-based treatment via the Internet; and (5) improve individually tailored, stepped-care approaches and the long-term effectiveness of evidence-based treatments. This series of papers provides an analytic framework to inform heuristic simulation models in order to take a new look at ways to markedly increase population smoking cessation by implementing a defined set of treatments and treatment-related policies with the potential to improve motivation to quit, evidence-based treatment use, and long-term effectiveness. © 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Source


Levy D.T.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Graham A.L.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | Mabry P.L.,U.S. National Institutes of Health | Abrams D.B.,Steven A Schroeder Institute For Tobacco Research And Policy Studies | Orleans C.T.,Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
American Journal of Preventive Medicine | Year: 2010

Background: Smoking-cessation treatment policies could yield substantial increases in adult quit rates in the U.S. Purpose: The goals of this paper are to model the effects of individual cessation treatment policies on population quit rates, and to illustrate the potential benefits of combining policies to leverage their synergistic effects. Methods: A mathematical model is updated to examine the impact of five cessation treatment policies on quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness. Policies include: (1) expand cessation treatment coverage and provider reimbursement; (2) mandate adequate funding for the use and promotion of evidence-based, state-sponsored telephone quitlines; (3) support healthcare system changes to prompt, guide, and incentivize tobacco treatment; (4) support and promote evidence-based treatment via the Internet; and (5) improve individually tailored, stepped-care approaches and the long-term effectiveness of evidence-based treatments. Results: The annual baseline population quit rate is 4.3% of all current smokers. Implementing any policy in isolation is projected to increase the quit rate to between 4.5% and 6%. By implementing all five policies in combination, the quit rate is projected to increase to 10.9%, or 2.5 times the baseline rate. Conclusions: If fully implemented in a coordinated fashion, cessation treatment policies could reduce smoking prevalence from its current rate of 20.5% to 17.2% within 1 year. By modeling the policy impacts on the components of the population quit rate (quit attempts, treatment use, treatment effectiveness), key indicators are identified that need to be analyzed in attempts to improve the effect of cessation treatment policies. © 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Source

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