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Oxford, United Kingdom

Mayer C.,Said Business School
Oxford Review of Economic Policy | Year: 2015

Thirty years ago, the 1986 Oxford Review of Economic Policy assessment of financial innovation foretold the events leading up to the financial crisis and the factors that lay behind it. Those same insights suggest significant deficiencies in the response to the financial crisis and a failure to identify the limits to, as well as requirements for, strengthened regulation. In particular, there is a need for institutional reforms that have received insufficient attention to date. © The Author 2015.

Harvey W.S.,Said Business School
Geography Compass | Year: 2010

This paper explores some of the methodological strategies for interviewing elites. The focus is on researching elite members, preparing for interviews and gaining access, as well as the associated power relationships. Examples are drawn from across the social sciences and from the author's doctoral and postdoctoral work with over one hundred members of business elites. It is argued that researchers should be more attentive towards the following three areas. First, providing flexibility when designing research projects and conducting interviews. Second, ensuring transparency when communicating with elite members. Third, maintaining good etiquette with all participants to ensure the highest professional standards. The overall aim of the paper is to provide an introduction for those who are new to the field of interviewing elite subjects. © 2010 The Author. Journal Compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Coulter B.,Said Business School | Krishnamoorthy S.,University of Western Ontario
International Transactions in Operational Research | Year: 2014

This paper examines the effect of reference prices on companies operating within competitive industries. We confirm that even with competition, firms optimally price high in the short term to generate a high reference price and then decrease this price over time. Competitors' prices converge toward each other over time, emphasizing the short-term nature of reference prices. We then show that pricing optimally to take advantage of reference prices generates a positive externality for other firms in an industry, such that competitors may generate higher profit. The longer the focus of a given firm, the more profit the firm generates, but less relative to its competitors. This arises because the externalities created through pricing high to increase reference prices outweigh the benefits of the higher reference prices themselves. If pricing managers are compensated relative to their competition, this suggests that short-termism may be implicitly encouraged to the detriment of profit. © 2013 The Authors.

Pinson P.,Technical University of Denmark | McSharry P.,Said Business School | McSharry P.,University of Oxford | Madsen H.,Technical University of Denmark
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | Year: 2010

Reliability is seen as a primary requirement when verifying probabilistic forecasts, since a lack of reliability would introduce a systematic bias in subsequent decision-making. Reliability diagrams comprise popular and practical diagnostic tools for the reliability evaluation of density forecasts of continuous variables. Such diagrams relate to the assessment of the unconditional calibration of probabilistic forecasts. A reason for their appeal is that deviations from perfect reliability can be visually assessed based on deviations from the diagonal. Deviations from the diagonal may, however, be caused by both sampling effects and serial correlation in the forecast-verification pairs. We build on a recent proposal, consisting of associating reliability diagrams with consistency bars that would reflect the deviations from the diagonal that are potentially observable even if density forecasts are perfectly reliable. Our consistency bars, however, reflect potential deviations originating from the combined effects of limited counting statistics and serial correlation in the forecast-verification pairs. They are generated based on an original surrogate consistency resampling method. Its ability to provide consistency bars with a significantly better coverage against the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) resampling alternative is shown from simulations. Finally, a practical example of the reliability assessment of non-parametric density forecasts of short-term wind-power generation is given. © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

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