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Dumont A.,Complutense University of Madrid | Salmoral G.,Technical University of Madrid | Llamas M.R.,Complutense University of Madrid | Llamas M.R.,Royal Academy of science
Water Resources and Industry | Year: 2013

In addition to revealing the hidden link between products or consumption patterns of populations and their needs in terms of water resources, the water footprint (WF) indicator generates new debates and solutions on water management at basin scale. This paper analyses the green and blue WF of the Guadalquivir basin and its integration with environmental water consumption, with a special emphasis on the WF from groundwater and its consequences on current and future depletion of surface water. In a normal year, green WF (agriculture and pastures) amounts to 190. mm on a total green water consumption of 410 mm, while the blue WF (50 mm) represents half of the total blue water flows. This constitutes a first overview and alternative interpretations of the WF as human water appropriation are introduced. The blue WF is almost entirely associated to agriculture (40 mm). The presentation of its evolution over the period 1997-2008 reveals the rising WF from groundwater (13 mm in 2008), 86% being current consumption of surface flows. This evolution is particularly ascribed to the recent development of irrigated olive groves from groundwater. To prevent a higher pressure on the environment, this new use, like all others (thermo-solar plants, tourism, etc.), could have been obtained from the reallocation of water from crops with low water productivity. It means that water is not lacking in the Guadalquivir basin if the governance setting integrates more flexibility and equity in the allocation of water to address climatic variability and the emergence of new demands. © 2013 The Authors.


Vieira A.C.,Secure-NOK | Houmb S.H.,Secure-NOK | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science
Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science, EPTCS | Year: 2014

Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value. © A. Couce Vieira, S.H. Houmb & D. Rios Insua This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License.


Rios J.,IBM | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science
Risk Analysis | Year: 2012

Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.


Esteban P.G.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science
Communications in Computer and Information Science | Year: 2013

We describe how the Adversarial Risk Analysis framework may be used to support the decision making of an autonomous agent which needs to interact with other agents and persons. We propose several contextualizations of the problem and suggest which is the conceptual solution in some of the proposed scenarios. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.


Razuri J.G.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Esteban P.G.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science
Studies in Computational Intelligence | Year: 2013

Machines that perform intelligent tasks interacting with humans in a seamless manner are becoming a reality. A key element in their design is their ability to make decisions based on a reasonable value system, and the perception of the surrounding environment, including the incumbent persons. In this chapter, we provide a model that supports the decision making process of an autonomous agent that imperfectly perceives its environment and the actions performed by a person, which we shall designate user. The approach has a decision analytic flavour, but includes models forecasting the user's behaviour and its impact over the surrounding environment. We describe the implementation of the model with an edutainment robot with sensors that capture information about the world around it, which may serve as a cognitive personal assistant, may be used with kids for educational, recreational and therapeutic purposes and with elderly people for companion purposes. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.


Esteban P.G.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science
Cybernetics and Systems | Year: 2014

We describe how adversarial risk analysis may be used to support the decision making of an autonomous agent that needs to interact with other agents and persons within a competitive environment. We propose several contextualizations for the problem and suggest the conceptual solution in the proposed scenarios. © 2014 Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.


Udias A.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Insua D.R.,Royal Academy of science | Cano J.,Rey Juan Carlos University | Fellag H.,Mouloud Mammeri University
International Transactions in Operational Research | Year: 2012

We deal with a complex water distribution problem through a bicriteria fair division model over time with network constraints: we aim at distributing water fairly in a cost-efficient manner. The problem is illustrated for the region of Kabylia, Algeria. It involves the optimization of pump operational schedules as well as strategic planning issues. Complex rules establish energy tariffs depending on the time of day and the contractual issues of the pump facilities. We discuss the relevance and implementation of different solution concepts, showing various alternatives that improve upon current management procedures. © 2012 International Federation of Operational Research Societies.


Klaassen I.,University of Amsterdam | van Geest R.J.,University of Amsterdam | Kuiper E.J.,University of Amsterdam | van Noorden C.J.F.,University of Amsterdam | And 2 more authors.
Experimental Eye Research | Year: 2015

Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF, CCN2) contributes to fibrotic responses in diabetic retinopathy, both before clinical manifestations occur in the pre-clinical stage of diabetic retinopathy (PCDR) and in proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), the late clinical stage of the disease. CTGF is a secreted protein that modulates the actions of many growth factors and extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins, leading to tissue reorganization, such as ECM formation and remodeling, basal lamina (BL) thickening, pericyte apoptosis, angiogenesis, wound healing and fibrosis. In PCDR, CTGF contributes to thickening of the retinal capillary BL and is involved in loss of pericytes. In this stage, CTGF expression is induced by advanced glycation end products, and by growth factors such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β. In PDR, the switch from neovascularization to a fibrotic phase - the angio-fibrotic switch - in PDR is driven by CTGF, in a critical balance with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). We discuss here the roles of CTGF in the pathogenesis of DR in relation to ECM remodeling and wound healing mechanisms, and explore whether CTGF may be a potential novel therapeutic target in the clinical management of early as well as late stages of DR. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.


Ramos de Carvalho J.E.,University of Amsterdam | Verbraak F.D.,University of Amsterdam | Aalders M.C.,University of Amsterdam | van Noorden C.J.,University of Amsterdam | And 2 more authors.
Survey of Ophthalmology | Year: 2014

The aim of molecular imaging techniques is the visualization of molecular processes and functional changes in living animals and human patients before morphological changes occur at the cellular and tissue level. Ophthalmic molecular imaging is still in its infancy and has mainly been used in small animals for pre-clinical research. The goal of most of these pre-clinical studies is their translation into ophthalmic molecular imaging techniques in clinical care. We discuss various molecular imaging techniques and their applications in ophthalmology. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.


van Geest R.J.,University of Amsterdam | Klaassen I.,University of Amsterdam | Vogels I.M.C.,University of Amsterdam | van Noorden C.J.F.,University of Amsterdam | And 2 more authors.
Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science | Year: 2010

PURPOSE. An early hallmark of preclinical diabetic retinopathy is thickening of the capillary basal lamina (BL). TGF-β, a multipotent cytokine acting through its receptors ALK5 and-1, has been postulated to be involved in this phenomenon. In light of this possible role, TGF-β signaling and its downstream molecular effects were characterized in cultured vascular endothelial cells and pericytes of the retina. METHODS. Bovine retinal endothelial cells and pericytes were stimulated with TGF-β1 in the presence or absence of SD-208, a specific inhibitor of the TGF-β type I receptor ALK5, or ALK5 small interfering (si)RNA. TGF-β-signaling pathways were characterized by analysis of phosphorylated Smad2 or-1/5/8 proteins and TGF-β target genes (PAI-1, fibronectin, CTGF, Smad7, and Id1) and protein (fibronectin). RESULTS. ALK5 was expressed in both cell types, whereas ALK1 was exclusively expressed in endothelial cells. In endothelial cells, TGF-β induced Smad2 phosphorylation at high concentrations, which was efficiently blocked by ALK5 inhibition. In contrast, in pericytes, Smad2 phosphorylation was rapidly induced at low concentrations of TGF-β. The ALK1-Smad1/5/8 pathway was activated by TGF-β in endothelial cells only. TGF-β caused ALK5-mediated upregulation of PAI-1, Smad7, and fibronectin and in pericytes at lower TGF-β concentrations than in endothelial cells. CTGF mRNA expression was induced only in pericytes. Fibronectin protein was confirmed to be regulated by TGF-β in both cell types. CONCLUSIONS. TGF-β signaling in retinal endothelial cells and pericytes show that these cells, and in particular the pericytes, have the essential characteristics to allow for a role of TGF-β in BL thickening in preclinical diabetic retinopathy. © Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology.

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