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Tormann T.,ETH Zurich | Enescu B.,University of Tsukuba | Woessner J.,Risk Management Solutions Ltd. | Wiemer S.,ETH Zurich
Nature Geoscience | Year: 2015

Constraints on the recurrence times of subduction zone earthquakes are important for seismic hazard assessment and mitigation. Models of such megathrust earthquakes often assume that subduction zones are segmented and earthquakes occur quasi-periodically owing to constant tectonic loading. Here we analyse the occurrence of small earthquakes compared to larger ones - the b-values - on a 1,000-km-long section of the subducting Pacific Plate beneath central and northern Japan since 1998. We find that the b-values vary spatially and mirror the tectonic regime. For example, high b-values, indicative of low stress, occur in locations characterized by deep magma chambers and low b-values, or high stress, occur where the subducting and overriding plates are strongly coupled. There is no significant variation in the low b-values to suggest the plate interface is segmented in a way that might limit potential ruptures. Parts of the plate interface that ruptured during the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were highly stressed in the years leading up to the earthquake. Although the stress was largely released during the 2011 rupture, we find that the stress levels quickly recovered to pre-quake levels within just a few years. We conclude that large earthquakes may not have a characteristic location, size or recurrence interval, and might therefore occur more randomly distributed in time. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Risk Management Solutions Inc. | Date: 2013-11-04

A risk exposure model is developed for network or moveable assets not specific to a single, fixed address or location. An asset map using a plurality of geographic representation points is used to identify the physical locations of the asset portions (or possible physical locations in the case of a moveable asset). Baseline geographic, geologic, political, and demographic data is similarly represented using geographic representation points. Meta-data associated with each geographic representation point is used to identify details related to the asset or baseline feature at that geographic location. Risk exposure values are then calculated using the geographic representation points specific to the asset portions that are subject to risks associated with the location of the asset portion.

Risk Management Solutions Inc. | Date: 2013-06-11

A system automatically processes rules for allocation of resources to mitigate damages resulting from a catastrophic event. Overlapping interests of various stakeholders are processed in a deterministic manner to ensure repeatable processing and modeling. In one embodiment the resources are disaster aid items; in another they are obligations regarding insurance.

A system stochastically models events related to potential perils (e.g., hurricanes, terrorist attacks) using a weighted period event table. Both rare and likely events are captured in modeling with minimal computational overhead, allowing appropriate allocation of resources. Applications include disaster response, municipal planning, financial risk modeling and allocation.

Risk Management Solutions Inc. | Date: 2014-01-31

A system and method are provided for identifying exposure concentrations. The process of determining exposure concentrations may include organizing exposure data, defining parameters, determining elevated exposure concentrations, and providing output results. The exposure data may relate to at least geographical locations, policies, accounts, portfolios, treaties, and other exposure data. The parameters may be defined to include at least an area of analysis, a region of interest, a threshold amount, results parameters, and other parameters. The exposure concentration may include at least defining and locating exposure locations using various techniques. The results may be presented using textual, graphical, or other display schemes. The output may be configured to convey information such as positional accuracy of an identified area, exposure accumulation in a defined area, and other information.

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