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Cai D.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | Zhang J.,Hainan Climate Center | Zou H.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | Liu S.,Hainan Climate Center
Journal of Natural Disasters | Year: 2013

Cold damage seriously affects and restricts the development of banana planting industry in Hainan. It is of great importance to study the insurance of cold-damaged banana to reduce agricultural losses and economic growth of Hainan. With the data of yields of banana during 1990-2010 and data of weather of 18 cities/countries in Hainan Island from 1961 to 2010, historical sequences of banana yield reduction caused by cold damage were calculated, and based on the extreme value theory, distribution models of yield risk were constructed, and the pure premium rates of the study areas were collated and stipulated. The results show that 1960s to 1980s is a period of frequent cold damages in Hainan Island. However, the disasters declined after the 1990s. The middle and north of Hainan Island are areas with high pure premium rates, including Baisha, Qiongzhong, Wuzhishan and Chengmai, while the south and east areas are the opposite. The spatial distribution of the rates is generally consistent with the distribution of weather risk of cold damage. It is possible to approximate and adopt different deductible rates in different regions. When the rates are collated and stipulated, the trends of cold damage risk change should be taken into account.


Liu S.-J.,Chengdu University of Technology | Liu S.-J.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | Zhang J.-H.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | He Z.-W.,Chengdu University of Technology | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Natural Disasters | Year: 2011

Topography can influence the precipitation distribution during typhoon process , so it is important to understand the spatial distribution of precipitation for typhoon forecasting and early warning. Based on partial least squares regression and precipitation data of typhoons landing on Hainan Island ( not including the other tropical cyclone) from 1953 to 2005, relation model between annual mean precipitation and topographical factors (terrain elevation, slope, aspect ) was built to estimate the precipitation distribution in Hainan Island, to analyze precipitation influence from topography, which may give a reference to analysis of topographic influence on precipitation in later stage of typhoon disaster process.


Liu S.,Hainan Climate Center | Liu S.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | Zhang J.,Hainan Climate Center | Cai D.,Research Institute of Hainan Meteorological Bureau | Zhang M.,Hainan Climate Center
Journal of Natural Disasters | Year: 2014

Disaster assessment models usually are established with a large number of historical statistics. However, the data are often incomplete or statistics disaster measure inconsistent, which will bring some inconvenience in the establishment of disaster model. In order to rapidly assess typhoon's impact on rubber plant, typical case typhoon "David" was analyzed in the enlightenment of the reverse engineering design thinking. The assessment model factors were chosen from disaster pregnant environment, disaster-formative factors, and disaster-affected bodies. The evaluation model was established by analyzing the extent of natural rubber damage and related factors, and actual example tests were carried out on the model. Results show that, the model reflects the spatial distribution of rubber damage loss in some degree. The model would be the foundation for establishing more accurate assessment model.

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