Chen R.,Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment |
Chen R.,Fudan University |
Wang C.,Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment |
Wang C.,Fudan University |
And 7 more authors.
Neurology | Year: 2013
Objective: To examine temperature in relation to stroke mortality in a multicity time series study in China. Methods: We obtained data on daily temperature and mortality from 8 large cities in China. We used quasi-Poisson generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the accumulative effects of temperature on stroke mortality across multiple days, adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of the week, air pollution, and relative humidity. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool city-specific effect estimates. Results: Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality. The potential effect of cold temperature might last more than 2 weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme cold (first percentile of temperature) and cold (10th percentile of temperature) temperatures over lags 0-14 days were 1.39 (95% posterior intervals [PI] 1.18-1.64) and 1.11 (95% PI 1.06-1.17), compared with the 25th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the effect of hot temperature was more immediate. The relative risks of stroke mortality over lags 0-3 days were 1.06 (95%PI 1.02-1.10) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) and 1.14 (95% PI 1.05-1.24) for hot temperature (90th percentile of temperature), compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. Conclusions: This study showed that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in China. Our findings may have important implications for stroke prevention in China. © 2013 American Academy of Neurology.
Zhou X.,Fudan University |
Zhou X.,Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment |
Zhao A.,Fudan University |
Zhao A.,Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment |
And 8 more authors.
Science of the Total Environment | Year: 2014
Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. There have been no multicity studies in China addressing the DTR-related health impact. We hypothesized that an increase of DTR is associated with higher daily mortality with a potential lag of effect, and investigated the acute effects of DTR on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in 8 large Chinese cities from 2001 to 2010. We first calculated city-specific effect of DTR in the full year, the cool season (November to the next April) and the warm season (May to October) separately using a semi-parametric generalized additive model; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with meta analysis. After adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution levels, we found statistically significant associations between DTR and daily mortality, especially in cool seasons. A 1. °C increment of DTR on lag-day 1 corresponded to a 0.42% (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.70) increase in total non-accidental mortality, 0.45% (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.65) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 0.76% (95% CI, 0.24 to 1.29) increase in respiratory mortality in cool seasons. Deaths among females and elderly (≥. 65. years) were more strongly associated with DTR than among males and younger people (<. 65. years). Our analysis suggests that DTR is a potential trigger for death in China. Our findings may have important implications for the climate policies in the country. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.