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Aljoufie M.,King Abdulaziz University | Zuidgeest M.,University of Twente | Brussel M.,University of Twente | van Vliet J.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems RIKS | And 2 more authors.
Landscape and Urban Planning | Year: 2013

Understanding the interaction between urban land-use change and transport is critical for urban planning as well as for transport planning, particularly in the case of rapidly growing and motorising cities, such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Dynamic land use and transport interaction models provide a good platform to study this mutual interaction. In this paper, we introduce one instance of these models, a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use/transport interaction model (LUTI), which was applied to the quickly growing metropolitan area of Jeddah. The model was calibrated using a stage-wise calibration and evaluated using an independent validation. The CA-based LUTI model outperforms a similar stand-alone CA-based model, which indicates that land use and transport interact and that models for understanding urban dynamics benefit from including the feedback between both systems. Such understanding facilitates the estimation of future dynamics of land-use change and transport in cities, and can support the development of alternative spatial plans and policies. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Hewitt R.,University of Alcala | van Delden H.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems RIKS | van Delden H.,University of Adelaide | Escobar F.,University of Alcala | Escobar F.,CEPS a.s.
Environmental Modelling and Software | Year: 2014

The increasing adoption of land use models in planning and policy development highlights the need for an integrated approach that combines analytical modelling techniques with discursive 'soft-science' methodologies. Recent scientific contributions to the discipline have tended to focus on analytical problems such as statistical assessment of model goodness of fit through map comparison techniques, while the problem of integrating stakeholder information into land use models has received little attention. Using the example of a land use model developed for the Guadiamar basin in South West Spain, location of the emblematic Doñana natural area, an integrated methodology for participatory calibration and evaluation of model results is presented which combines information from key stakeholders across a range of sectors with analytical model calibration techniques. Both discursive and analytical techniques are presented side by side to demonstrate that including participatory approaches is likely to improve both calibration results and model applicability. Integration of participatory methods into land use models is more likely to be successful if stakeholders are selected carefully so as to make best possible use of their time and knowledge, and are involved in the modelling process from the beginning of the project cycle. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Van Delden H.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems RIKS | Van Vliet J.,Oecd Nuclear Energy Agency | Petersen J.-E.,European Environment Agency | Hoogeveen Y.,European Environment Agency | And 6 more authors.
iEMSs 2012 - Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Proceedings of the 6th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society | Year: 2012

Over the past years several studies have explored future land use trends for Europe. This paper presents a comparison of six land use studies for Europe that explore land use changes until 2020/2030. We compared these studies with respect to qualitative as well as quantitative aspects. The qualitative analysis shows that many studies focus on agricultural land uses and therefore draw on detailed agricultural models, while only few include urban developments. The purpose of about half of the studies is to provide land use outlooks, while the other half used scenarios to test the behaviour of scientific models or show their potential applicability. For the quantitative comparison we considered the results of their reference and alternative scenarios. This comparison shows that there is a large difference between the projected results provided by the different outlooks. We even found that alternative scenario outcomes within a single outlook study are more similar than the results of reference scenarios between outlook studies. To a large extent this can be traced back to the differences in initial data sources, data pre-processing and model assumptions. To exclude the impact of differences in initial data, also relative changes were computed. Results from this analysis show a large range of values, which indicates a large uncertainty in the results of land use outlooks. We suggest using all results as the plausibility space for future land use changes. Many studies have kept the values of drivers within a rather limited range, while in reality larger shocks may well be possible.

van Delden H.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems RIKS | Stuczynski T.,Institute of Soil science and Plant Cultivation IUNG | Ciaian P.,Catholic University of Leuven | Ciaian P.,European Commission | And 10 more authors.
Ecological Modelling | Year: 2010

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike.This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

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