Chen Y.-L.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Lin P.-L.,National Central University |
Hsiao F.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Chu P.-S.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Su M.-H.,Research Center for Typhoon and Society
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | Year: 2013
The aim of Asia-Pacific Natural Hazard Conference, held from 27th June, 2013, was to promote closer ties and foster future collaborations between Taiwan and Hawaii concerning disastrous weather in a changing climate. Richard E. Carbone, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), delivered the first keynote address on water worries in an evolving climate system. He discussed the potential impact and uncertainties of climate change on the precipitation process. The first paper by Liang-Chun Chen and researchers was presented by Yi-Chao Wu of the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), Taipei, Taiwan, on the projected changes in the natural and social environment, weather and climate extremes, and risk assessment and adaption in a warming climate. Wei-Jiun Chen and researcher from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University (NCU-ATM) used the refractivity data from the NCAR S-band polarimetric Doppler radar (S-POL) deployed during TiMREX to retrieve moisture field data to study the interaction between moisture and precipitation.
Huang W.-C.,National Taiwan Ocean University |
Chiang Y.,National Taiwan Ocean University |
Wu R.-Y.,National Taiwan Ocean University |
Lee J.-L.,National Taiwan Ocean University |
Lin S.-H.,Research Center for Typhoon and Society
Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences | Year: 2012
The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on rainfall frequency in Taiwan. The changes in future precipitation were projected statistically from general circulation model (GCM) outputs. Based on five downscaled GCM outputs [China's FGOALS-g1.0, Japan's CGCM2.3.2, the USA's CM2.0, Canada's CGCM3(T47), and France's CM3] under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency of the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-, 2-, and 3-day rainfall during 2080 - 2099 are evaluated and compared with those in the period of 1980 - 1999. The results show that by the end of the 21st century, the risk of droughts and floods over Taiwan has a tendency to increase. The distribution of water resources in Taiwan will be more uneven, with a noticeable change in the ratio of wet and dry seasons. Due to these climate change impacts, future water conservation work will be a major challenge for governments.
Lin S.-H.,National Taiwan University |
Lin S.-H.,Research Center for Typhoon and Society |
Liu C.-M.,The Chinese Association of Low Carbon Environment
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2013
Data assimilation is important for the spatial analysis of small regions with complex terrain and diverse climates and for interpolation among observations. A data assimilation method incorporating observations, coarse-grid re-analysis data and physiographical features is demonstrated to generate high-resolution temperature data for small islands such as Taiwan. The method is also able to weigh physiographic and anthropogenic factors. Among the spatial factors, the orographic effect is the dominating factor and the lapse rate varies seasonally. Population density is significantly related to temperature, which may correspond to the urban heat-island (UHI) effect. It is also shown that an anthropogenic factor could be used with this interpolation method to explain the details of the temperature variation. The data assimilation model provides an opportunity to assess the extent to which simple statistical regression equations, calibrated from natural variability, can reproduce climate changes driven by land effects without considering a complex climate model. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
Hsu R.C.-C.,Taiwan Forestry Research Institute |
Tamis W.L.M.,Leiden University |
Raes N.,Leiden University |
de Snoo G.R.,Leiden University |
And 3 more authors.
Diversity and Distributions | Year: 2012
Aim: This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on forests and vascular epiphytes, using species distribution models (SDMs). Location: Island of Taiwan, subtropical East Asia. Methods: A hierarchical modelling approach incorporating forest migration velocity and forest type-epiphyte interactions with classical SDMs was used to model the responses of eight forest types and 237 vascular epiphytes for the year 2100 under two climate change scenarios. Forest distributions were modelled and modified by dominant tree species' dispersal limitations and hypothesized persistence under unfavourable climate conditions (20years for broad-leaved trees and 50years for conifers). The modelled forest projections together with 16 environmental variables were used as predictors in models of epiphyte distributions. A null method was applied to validate the significance of epiphyte SDMs, and potential vulnerable species were identified by calculating range turnover rates. Results: For the year 2100, the model predicted a reduction in the range of most forest types, especially for Picea and cypress forests, which shifted to altitudes c.400 and 300m higher, respectively. The models indicated that epiphyte distributions are highly correlated with forest types, and the majority (77-78%) of epiphyte species were also projected to lose 45-58% of their current range, shifting on average to altitudes c.400m higher than currently. Range turnover rates suggested that insensitive epiphytes were generally lowland or widespread species, whereas sensitive species were more geographically restricted, showing a higher correlation with temperature-related factors in their distributions. Main conclusions: The hierarchical modelling approach successfully produced interpretable results, suggesting the importance of considering biotic interactions and the inclusion of terrain-related factors when developing SDMs for dependant species at a local scale. Long-term monitoring of potentially vulnerable sites is advised, especially of those sites that fall outside current conservation reserves where additional human disturbance is likely to exacerbate the effect of climate change. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Chang C.T.,Research Center for Typhoon and Society
Sustainability Science | Year: 2013
This article challenges the application of the sustainability triangle to conceptualise sustainable development by looking at how weak sustainability can be obtained via the reinforcing increase in social capital and natural capital. Sustainable development is often visualised as a triangle consisting of social, environmental, and economic aspects. Would it be possible to conceive a flattened system, with diminishing economic resources or without refilling financial resources? The possibility involves mutual reinforcement between social capital and natural capital. The consideration of the diminishing economic dimension relates to the concept of development without economic growth, such as degrowth, zero-growth, and sustainable growth, that has been revived in the face of the recent economic crisis. Several countries have imposed extreme budget cuts in development collaboration and in other government expenditures. When the economic resource is not at a satisfactory level, can we rely on the reinforcement between social and environmental aspects for sustainability? Although it is not new to acknowledge the contribution of social capital to environmental conservation, research has long ignored the reinforcing relationship between environmental and social dimensions. This article provides a prototype model to demonstrate how social capital and natural capital can reinforce each other. The prototype is studied and verified at the community level using a comparative method. This article concludes with principles and practices that may encourage sustainability with merely the reinforcement between social capital and natural capital. © 2013 Springer Japan.