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Sbrana G.,France Business School | Silvestrini A.,Research and International Relations
International Journal of Production Economics | Year: 2013

Forecasting aggregate demand represents a crucial aspect in all industrial sectors. In this paper, we provide the analytical prediction properties of top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches when forecasting the aggregate demand using a multivariate exponential smoothing as demand planning framework. We extend and generalize the results achieved by Widiarta et al. (2009) by employing an unrestricted multivariate framework allowing for interdependency between its variables. Moreover, we establish the necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of mean squared errors (MSEs) of the two approaches. We show that the condition for the equality of MSEs holds even when the moving average parameters of the individual components are not identical. In addition, we show that the relative forecasting accuracy of TD and BU depends on the parametric structure of the underlying framework. Simulation results confirm our theoretical findings. Indeed, the ranking of TD and BU forecasts is led by the parametric structure of the underlying data generation process, regardless of possible misspecification issues. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Francese M.,Research and International Relations | Romanelli M.,Research and International Relations
European Journal of Health Economics | Year: 2014

This work aims at identifying the determinants of health spending differentials among Italian regions and at highlighting potential margins for savings. The analysis exploits a data set for the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces starting in the early 1990s and ending in 2006. After controlling for standard healthcare demand indicators, remaining spending differentials are found to be significant, and they appear to be associated with differences in the degree of appropriateness of treatments, health sector supply structure and social capital indicators. In general, higher regional expenditure does not appear to be associated with better reported or perceived quality in health services. In the regions that display poorer performances, inefficiencies appear not to be uniformly distributed among expenditure items. Overall, results suggest that savings could be achieved without reducing the amount of services provided to citizens. This seems particularly important given the expected rise in spending associated with the forecasted demographic developments. © Springer-Verlag 2013.

Fabiani S.,Research and International Relations | Gattulli A.,Research and International Relations | Veronese G.,Research and International Relations | Sabbatini R.,Research and International Relations
Managerial and Decision Economics | Year: 2010

This paper investigates the behaviour of consumer and producer prices in Italy using micro data. The frequency of price changes is computed in order to obtain a quantitative measure of the unconditional degree of price rigidity at both the consumption and the production stage. On average, producer prices tend to remain unchanged for around 6 months, whereas consumer prices exhibit a longer duration, of 10 months. A comparison of the price behaviour of similar items confirms that prices are more flexible at the production stage. Prices, however, are not adjusted uniformly across sectors. The duration of producer prices is less for food and non-energy intermediate products and greater for non-food consumer and investment goods. At the consumption stage, price spells are longer for non-energy industrial goods and services, much shorter for energy products. In exploring the possible reasons for the differences, we observe that a higher share of labour in total costs is associated with lower frequency of price adjustment. Moreover, the structure and functioning of the retail sector in Italy may slow price adjustment at the consumption stage, together with other specific economic factors that affect mainly consumer price behaviour, such as menu costs and attractive pricing policies. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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