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O'Brien N.P.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Foss R.D.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Goodwin A.H.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Masten S.V.,Research and Development Branch
Accident Analysis and Prevention | Year: 2013

Most states require teens to complete a certain number of hours of supervised driving practice to obtain a license to drive unsupervised. Although widely implemented, the effect of requiring supervised practice is largely unknown. Using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time-series analysis, we found no change in fatal and injury crash involvement of 16-17-year-old drivers in Minnesota following enactment of a 30 h supervised driving requirement. To supplement and provide insight into these findings, we conducted telephone interviews with parents of newly licensed teenage drivers in five states with varying amounts of required supervised driving, including Minnesota. Interviews revealed awareness of supervised driving requirements was limited. Only a third of parents (32%) overall could correctly identify the number of hours their state required. In Minnesota only 15% of parents could identify the amount of supervised driving their teen was required to complete. Awareness of the number of hours required was substantially higher (55%) in Maryland. Unlike the other states, Maryland requires submission of a driving log detailing the hours of supervised driving. The findings suggest states need to develop more effective mechanisms to ensure parents are aware of supervised hours requirements. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Masten S.V.,Research and Development Branch | Foss R.D.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Marshall S.W.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association | Year: 2011

Context: In the United States, graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems allow full, unrestricted licensure for drivers younger than 18 years only after an initial period of supervised driving and an intermediate period of unsupervised driving that limits driving at night, transporting multiple young passengers, or both. Objective: To estimate the association of GDL programs with involvement in fatal crashes among 16- to 19-year-old drivers. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pooled cross-sectional time series analysis of quarterly 1986-2007 incidence of fatal crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 19 years for all 50 states and the District of Columbia combined. Main Outcome Measures: Population-based rates of fatal crash involvement for 16-, 17-, 18-, and 19-year-old drivers. Rate ratios and 95% CIs comparing statequarters with stronger (restrictions on both nighttime driving and allowed passengers) or weaker (restrictions on either nighttime driving or allowed passengers) GDL programs with state-quarters without GDL. Results: Fatal crash incidence among teen drivers increased with age, from 28.2 per 100 000 person-years (16-year-old drivers) to 36.9 per 100 000 (17-year-olds), before reaching a plateau of 46.2 per 100 000 (18-year-olds) and 44.0 per 100 000 (19-yearolds). After adjusting for potential confounders, stronger GDL programs were associated with lower incidence of fatal crashes for 16-year-old drivers, compared with programs having none of the key GDL elements (rate ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.65-0.84]). However, stronger GDL programs were associated with higher fatal crash incidence for 18-yearold drivers (rate ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.01-1.23]). Rate ratios for 17-year-olds (0.91 [95% CI, 0.83-1.01]), 19-year-olds (1.05 [95% CI, 0.98-1.13]), and 16- to 19-year-olds combined (0.97 [95% CI, 0.92-1.03]) were not statistically different from the null. Conclusions: In the United States, stronger GDL programs with restrictions on nighttime driving as well as allowed passengers, relative to programs with none of the key GDL elements, were associated with substantially lower fatal crash incidence for 16-year-old drivers but somewhat higher fatal crash incidence for 18-year-old drivers. Future studies should seek to determine what accounts for the increase among 18-yearold drivers and whether refinements in GDL programs can reduce this association. ©2011 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Source

Brar S.S.,Research and Development Branch
Journal of Safety Research | Year: 2014

Introduction and Method Quasi-induced exposure analysis was used to estimate annual fatal crash involvement rates for validly licensed, suspended or revoked (S/R), and unlicensed drivers in California from 1987 through 2009 using fatal crash data obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System and crash culpability determinations from the California Highway Patrol's Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System. Results Although there was some year-to-year fluctuation in the annual estimates, S/R and unlicensed drivers were over-involved as at-fault drivers in fatal crashes during every year of the 23-year time period relative to validly licensed drivers. The fatal crash involvement ratios combined across all years were 0.86 for validly licensed drivers, 2.23 for S/R drivers, and 2.34 for unlicensed drivers. Hence, compared to validly licensed drivers, the odds of being at-fault for a fatal crash were 160% higher for S/R drivers (involvement ratio = 2.60) and 173% higher for unlicensed drivers (involvement ratio = 2.73). The excess risks of S/R and unlicensed drivers are somewhat lower than estimates found in a prior study using the same technique, but the results nonetheless provide evidence that S/R and unlicensed drivers are much more hazardous on the road than are validly licensed drivers and emphasize the importance of using strong countermeasures - including vehicle impoundment - to reduce their high crash risk. These findings support interventions to help reduce driving among S/R and unlicensed drivers. © National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. Source

Camp B.J.,Research and Development Branch
Journal of Safety Research | Year: 2013

Introduction: In 2007, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) undertook a pilot study of the 3-Tier Assessment System, the purpose of which was to examine, in a large-scale real-time public agency setting, the effectiveness of this method for both reducing the crash risk of individual drivers and for extending the safe driving years of Californian drivers of all ages. Method The 3-Tier Assessment System consisted of tiered series of screening tools incorporated into the in-office driver's license renewal process. These screening tools identified drivers with various kinds of functional limitations (physical, visual, and cognitive/perceptual), that might impact safe driving. Paired with the screening tools were educational materials designed to improve drivers' knowledge of their own limitations, including compensating techniques. The present study is a population-based evaluation of the effects of the pilot on subsequent crash risk and mobility outcomes (including delicensure) of participating drivers age 70 and older. Pilot participants were compared with two control groups processed according to standard California DMV license renewal procedures. Because the 3-Tier Assessment System was designed to identify limitations normally associated with aging, the present analyses focus on drivers age 70 and older. However, it should be emphasized that during the 3-Tier pilot the screening tools were applied to drivers of all ages. Results There were two main findings. First, there were no consistent, statistically significant differences between the pilot and control groups in crash risk in the two years following screening. Second, pilot participants experienced statistically significant effects on mobility. These effects included delays in time to complete their license renewal, an increase in the number of assigned license restrictions, and an increase in the number of customers failing to renew their driving privilege. Conclusions Based on these findings, suggestions for further research are made. Impact on industry None. © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

Masten S.V.,Research and Development Branch | Foss R.D.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Marshall S.W.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Accident Analysis and Prevention | Year: 2013

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs are specialized licensing systems for beginner drivers adopted in all U.S. states, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. GDL programs reduce novice drivers' exposure to high-risk driving situations while they gain driving experience. Several studies document the success of GDL programs overall in reducing young teen crash rates. However, little is known about which specific components of these programs (e.g., nighttime driving restrictions) and which calibrations of these components (e.g., 10 PM, 11 PM, 12 AM, or 1 AM), are associated with the largest crash reductions. The goal of this study was to identify the GDL component calibrations associated with the largest reductions in fatal crash involvements for 16-17-year-olds. Driver fatal crash involvements for all U.S. states from 1986 to 2007 were analyzed using Poisson regression models to estimate the association of various GDL component calibrations with 16- and 17-year-old driver fatal crash incidence, after adjusting for potential confounders. We found clear evidence that (a) a minimum learner permit holding period of 9-12 months and (b) a passenger restriction allowing only one teen passenger for 6 months or longer are the calibrations for the learner permit holding period and passenger restriction components associated with the largest reductions in 16-17-year-old driver fatal crash involvements. Additionally, the data suggest that (a) disallowing learner driving until age 16, (b) disallowing intermediate licensure until age 16 to 17, and (c) a nighttime driving restriction starting at 10 PM or earlier are the calibrations for these components associated with the largest reductions in 16-year-old driver fatal crashes. There was no clear evidence to support particular calibrations for supervised driving hours or unrestricted license ages. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

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