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Ruml M.,University of Belgrade | Gregoric E.,University of Belgrade | Vujadinovic M.,University of Belgrade | Radovanovic S.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | And 4 more authors.
Atmospheric Research | Year: 2017

The analysis of spatiotemporal changes of temperature extremes in Serbia, based on 18 ETCCDI indices, was performed using daily minimum and maximum temperature observations from 26 meteorological stations over the period 1961–2010. The observation period was divided into two sub-periods (1961–1980 and 1981–2010) according to the results of the sequential Mann–Kendall test. Temporal trends were evaluated by a least-squares linear regression method. The average annual minimum temperature displayed a mixed pattern of increasing, decreasing, and no trends over 1961–1980 and a significant increasing trend over 1981–2010 across the whole country, with a regionally averaged rate of 0.48 °C per decade. The average annual maximum temperature showed a decreasing trend during 1961–1980 and a significant increasing trend at all stations during 1981–2010, with a regionally averaged rate of 0.56 °C per decade. Hot indices exhibited a general cooling tendency until 1980 and a warming tendency afterwards, with the most pronounced trends in the number of summer and tropical days during the first period and in the frequency of warm days and nights in the second. Cold indices displayed a mostly warming tendency over the entire period, with the most remarkable increase in the lowest annual maximum temperature and the number of ice days during the first period and in the frequency of cool nights during the second. At most stations, the diurnal temperature range showed a decrease until 1980 and no change or a slight increase afterwards. The lengthening of the growing season was much more pronounced in the later period. The computed correlation coefficient between the annual temperature indices and large-scale circulation features revealed that the East Atlantic pattern displayed much stronger association with examined indices than the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.


Lalic B.,University of Novi Sad | Jankovic D.,Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in Plant Protection | Dekic L.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Eitzinger J.,University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna | Sremac A.F.,University of Novi Sad
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science | Year: 2017

Use of monthly weather forecast as input meteorological data for agrometeorological forecasting, crop modelling and plant protection can foster promising applications in agricultural production. Operational use of monthly or seasonal weather forecast can help farmers to optimize field operations (fertilizing, irrigation) and protection measures against plant diseases and pests by taking full advantage of monthly forecast information in predicting plant development, pest and disease risks and yield potentials few weeks in advance. It can help producers to obtain stable or higher yield with the same inputs and to minimise losses caused by weather. In Central and South-Eastern Europe ongoing climate change lead to shifts of crops phenology dynamics (i.e. in Serbia 4-8 weeks earlier in 2016 than in previous years) and brings this subject in the front of agronomy science and practice. Objective of this study is to test efficacy of monthly forecast in predicting phenology dynamics of different winter wheat varieties, using phenological model developed by Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection. For that purpose, historical monthly forecast for four months (March 1, 2005 - June 30, 2005) was assimilated from ECMWF MARS archive for 50 ensemble members and control run. Impact of different agroecological conditions is tested by using observed and forecasted data for two locations - Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria). © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.


Tosic I.,University of Belgrade | Gavrilov M.B.,University of Novi Sad | Markovic S.B.,University of Novi Sad | Ruman A.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Putnikovic S.,University of Belgrade
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | Year: 2017

Seasonal prevailing surface winds are analyzed in the territory of Northern Serbia, using observational data from 12 meteorological stations over several decades. In accordance with the general definition of prevailing wind, two special definitions of this term are used. The seasonal wind roses in 16 directions at each station are analyzed. This study shows that the prevailing winds in Northern Serbia have northwestern and southeastern directions. Circulation weather types over Serbia are presented in order to determine the connections between the synoptic circulations and prevailing surface winds. Three controlling pressure centers, i.e., the Mediterranean cyclone, Siberian high, and the Azores anticyclone, appear as the most important large-scale factors that influence the creation of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia. Beside the synoptic cause of the prevailing winds, it is noted that the orography of the eastern Balkans has a major influence on the winds from the second quadrant. It was found that the frequencies of circulation weather types are in agreement with those of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia. © 2017 Springer-Verlag Wien


Gavrilov M.B.,University of Novi Sad | Tosic I.,University of Belgrade | Markovic S.B.,University of Novi Sad | Unkasevic M.,University of Belgrade | Petrovic P.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Idojaras | Year: 2016

The annual and seasonal trends of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were analyzed on the territory of Vojvodina, north Serbia. We used observed, quality controlled, homogenized, and spatially averaged data from 9 meteorological stations during two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Positive trends were found in 29 out of the 30 analyzed time series using a linear tendency (trend) equation, while negative trends were found in only 1 case. After the application of the classical Mann-Kendall (MK) test, statistically significant positive trends were confirmed in 15 series, while in remaining cases, statistically significant trends were not confirmed. After applying the modified MK test, positive trends were found in 26 series, and 4 cases were with no trend. We find that significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring and summer; and they are most numerous in the time series of monthly mean temperatures. In accordance with the behavior of analyzed trends, the increase of temperatures is dominant in Vojvodina. © 2016, Hungarian Meteorological Service. All rights reserved.


Gavrilov M.,University of Novi Sad | Lazic L.,University of Novi Sad | Pesic A.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Milutinovic M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | And 3 more authors.
Physical Geography | Year: 2010

The influence of hail suppression by silver iodide seeding on the trend in the number of hail days (hail trend) in the Republic of Serbia was studied in three cases: (1) in Vojvodina region, Northern Province of Serbia, in two periods, from 1967 to 2002 when there was no hail suppression, and from 2003 to 2009 when hail suppression was extended to the entire territory; (2) in Serbia proper (Serbia without the Provinces), in two periods, from 1967 to 1984 when hail suppression was spreading, and from 1985 to 2009 when hail suppression occurred over the entire territory; and (3) in the same period from 1967 to 2002 on the two adjacent territories of Vojvodina and Serbia without the Provinces, where no hail suppression occurred in the first and hail suppression did occur in the second. The hail trend in Serbia was calculated on the basis of all observed data from all synoptic and climatological stations for the period 1967 to 2009. The results associate hail suppression with the stagnation of the hail trend rather than its decrease, and show that hail suppression did not have statistically unique influence on the hail trend.


Romanic D.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Curic M.,University of Belgrade | Lompar M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Jovicic I.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2016

Koshava is a local wind usually observed in the cold part of the year over the large part of Serbia, parts of Romania, parts of Hungary, and east Croatia. The main characteristics of the Koshava wind are its high wind speed, southeasterly direction, persistence, and gustiness. This paper analyses the synoptic [Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) and Eurasian anticyclones (EAs)] as well as the mesoscale contributors to the Koshava wind. Time and spatial features of the pressure systems have been analysed using an automatic cyclone tracking scheme. The results show that the MCs and EAs that generate Koshava are approximately 1000km away from the Koshava region. It is demonstrated that the strong anticyclones are the main trigger for the Koshava wind. Less than 3% of the Koshava winds occurred without the occurrence of either an anticyclone or a cyclone. The Synoptic Koshava Index (SKI), developed in this study and defined as the difference between the area-averaged mean sea level pressures in the anticyclone and cyclone regions, has been shown to be a good indicator of the Koshava occurrence. Koshava has also been investigated from the perspective of the gap flow windstorm. The across-mountain pressure difference, ΔP, is the most important mesoscale contributor to the Koshava characteristics. The across-mountain potential temperature difference, Δθ, together with ΔP, can be successfully used to predict Koshava's occurrence. A simple (linear) probabilistic model for forecasting the Koshava mean hourly wind speed has been constructed. The results demonstrate that the occurrence of the Koshava wind can be predicted with the significantly higher accuracy than the Koshava mean hourly speed. The correlation between Koshava and winds at higher levels is small. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.


Krzi A.,Institute of Physics | Tosic I.,University of Belgrade | Djurdjevic V.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Djurdjevic V.,University of Belgrade | And 3 more authors.
Climate Research | Year: 2011

Changes in 7 climate indices related to temperature or precipitation in Serbia were estimated for the reference period 1961-1990 and for the future period 2071-2100, as derived from the results of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM. In order to verify the appropriateness of the EBU-POM to simulate regional climate in the future, changes in the indices of intensive events were studied on the basis of the model data and daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 17 meteorological stations in Serbia for the reference period. The results show an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 and 4°C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 and 6 mm for the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. It is likely that the number of days with absolute maximum temperature >30°C (tropical days) will increase, while the total number of days with absolute minimum temperature <0°C (frost days) will decrease in the future. A shorter duration of the frost period and a longer duration of dry and vegetation periods over the Serbian region is expected. © Inter-Research 2011.


Romanic D.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Curic M.,University of Belgrade | Jovicic I.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Lompar M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015

In this study, a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends of the Koshava wind during the period between 1949 and 2010 is carried out. Koshava is a strong wind that blows from southeast quadrant over Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Siberian high and West-Mediterranean cyclones, together with the orography of the eastern Balkan, are the main drivers of the Koshava wind. The trend analyses are performed on wind data sets from five synoptic weather stations, all situated in the region where the Koshava wind is fully developed. Koshava wind speeds are divided into two categories: (1) all wind speeds and (2) wind speeds above 5ms-1. Two homogeneity tests are used to inspect the quality of wind speed and wind direction time series. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator are used to analyze trends of the Koshava wind speeds and the annual number of days with the Koshava wind. Statistically significant negative trends of the Koshava wind speeds and wind activity are observed at all five weather stations and are more pronounced for wind speeds above 5ms-1. The negative trends of the Koshava wind are mostly related to the changes in the synoptic circulation, temperature and weakening of the Siberian high and West-Mediterranean cyclones. It is shown that the observed decline of the Koshava wind has a significant impact on reducing the wind energy potential in the region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.


Nickovic S.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Cvetkovic B.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Madonna F.,CNR Institute of Methodologies for Environmental analysis | Rosoldi M.,CNR Institute of Methodologies for Environmental analysis | And 3 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2016

Dust aerosols are very efficient ice nuclei, important for heterogeneous cloud glaciation even in regions distant from desert sources. A new generation of ice nucleation parameterizations, including dust as an ice nucleation agent, opens the way towards a more accurate treatment of cold cloud formation in atmospheric models. Using such parameterizations, we have developed a regional dust-atmospheric modelling system capable of predicting, in real time, dust-induced ice nucleation. We executed the model with the added ice nucleation component over the Mediterranean region, exposed to moderate Saharan dust transport, over two periods lasting 15 and 9 days, respectively. The model results were compared against satellite and ground-based cloud-ice-related measurements, provided by SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) and the CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO) in Potenza, southern Italy. The predicted ice nuclei concentration showed a reasonable level of agreement when compared against the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cloud ice water. The developed methodology permits the use of ice nuclei as input into the cloud microphysics schemes of atmospheric models, assuming that this approach could improve the predictions of cloud formation and associated precipitation. © 2016 Author(s).


Berdon N.P.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Geographica Pannonica | Year: 2012

The impact of the Arctic Oscillations (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) is considered as the most prominent of atmospheric oscillations in the area of the northern hemisphere from the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic. The aim of this study was to determine how these fluctuations affect the temperature and precipitation in Serbia. This paper explores the impact for the period of 50 years (1958-2007) by months and in 20 synoptic stations. The influence of the AO on temperature anomalies in Serbia can be seen by the correlation coefficient, the largest in the month of January, while its impact on precipitation is the largest in the month of February. After the test of linear correlation between the NAO index and temperature anomalies for the base period 1971-2000 for 20 synoptic stations in Serbia, it has been found that the highest correlation is in the month of January. The correlation between the NAO and the precipitation anomalies for the stations mentioned above is the highest in the month of February. Spatial patterns of the AO and the NAO influence on temperature in January and on precipitation in February were obtained by applying principal component analysis.

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