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Gajic V.,Institute for Emergency Medical Care | Milojevic D.,Institute for Emergency Medical Care | Raskovic A.,Institute for Emergency Medical Care | Smailagic J.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Djonovic N.,Institution for Public Health
Srpski Arhiv za Celokupno Lekarstvo | Year: 2011

Introduction Biometeorological circumstances have a big in fluence on all traffic participants, especially reflexes, moving co ordi nation and perception ability. With a lower attention and drivers' and pedestrians' concentration, there was a larger amount of pedestrian trauma in certain biometeorological phases. Objective The aim of this study was to establish the correlation between pedestrian trauma and biometeorological phases. Methods The comparative analysis of everyday biometeorological phases for the city of Kragujevac determined by RHMI and the evidence of knocked-down pedestrians from the Kragujevac traffic police for the period 2003-2008. Results There were 6,127 accidents, with 696 knocked pedestrians in 666 (10.87%) accidents. Most of them happened in 2003 (135), and the fewest in 2005 (90). Most accidents were during December (74), the fewest were in June (46). The fewest accidents were during 04-05-06 hour interval (by 2), most during 13-14 hours (61). There were 374 males and 349 females. Most of the males (by 60) were 0-10 and 11-20 years old, most of the females (74) were 11-20 years old. There were 443 pedestrians who suffered slight body injuries (112 were 11-20), 225 suffered heavy and 28 had lethal injuries (most over 70). As provokers, the pedestrians suffered because of improper crossing roads (185), while as a casualties, they suffered due to speeding of vechicles (285). Most accidents happened in biometeorological phases 4 (168) and 9 (151), the fewest in phase 10 (4). Conclussion Statistical analysis shows a significant correlation between pedestrians' accidents and biometeorological phases, when the most accidents occurred during penetrations of cold fronts, while there was a sudden switch of weather conditions from warm-dry to cold-wet weather.


Milojevic D.,Institution for Emergency Medical Care of Kragujevac | Gajic V.,Institution for Emergency Medical Care of Kragujevac | Smailagic J.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Donovic N.,Institution for Public Health of Kragujevac | Gajic S.,Health Service Kragujevac
Medicinski Glasnik | Year: 2011

Aim To determine influence of biometeorological phases on stroke incidence according to age and gender of patients, place of residence, days in a week, months in a year, type of stroke, additional diagnosis. Methodology Comparative analysis of the data on stroke patients (according to age, months, days, place of residence, age, sex, stroke type, additional diagnosis and number of hospitalization days) obtained by examining the records of discharge and admission of patients in the Department of Neurology of Kragujevac and everyday biometeorological phases obtained from the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMS of Serbia), for the following years: 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Kragujevac. Results 4,700 patients diagnosed with stroke were hospitalized in the observed period. The highest number of strokes was noted in 2003 (1,030), the lowest in 2008 (851). The highest number of strokes was in March (444) and the lowest in February (351).The most frequent days were Mondays (805), and the least frequent Sundays (495). Three fifths of patients were from urban areas and the rest of them were from rural areas. Out of this number 2,382 (50.7%) were males and 2.318 (49.3%) were females, of which 1.847 (77.6%) males and 1,894 (81.7%) females were over 70 years old. The average number of hospitalization days was 12.29 days, and most patients were in hospital for less than 10 days (2101 patients). 4,130 (87.9%) patients were diagnosed with thromboembolism, 422 (9.0%) with intracerebral hemorrhage and 148 (3.2%) with subarachnoid hemorrhage. As an additional diagnosis 1,946 (41.4%) patients had hypertension, 867(18.6%) had heart insufficiency and 15.40% had diabetes. Most strokes with significant correlation were in biometheorological phases 9 and 4 (1,227 and 1,010 strokes) and the least were in phase 10 (29). As a daily average, the highest number of strokes was in phase 8 (2.76/ day), the lowest in phase 2 (2.33/day). Conclusion Biometeorological phases have a great influence on stroke incidence, especially in phases with stable sunny weather and sudden impact of weather fronts, with sudden weather changes, with average incidence in the phase of foggy weather.


Gajic V.,Institution for Emergency Medical Care | Milojevic D.,Institution for Emergency Medical Care | Raskovic A.,Institution for Emergency Medical Care | Smailagic J.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Djonovic N.,Institution for Public Health
Srpski Arhiv za Celokupno Lekarstvo | Year: 2011

Introduction Biometeorological circumstances have great influence on all traffic participants, especially on reflexes, movement coordination and perception ability, increasing the number of accidents. Motocyclists and bicyclists are specific participants in traffic, so their traumatism has its own special characteristics. Objective The aim of this study was to establish biometeoro logical influence on motorcyclists and bicyclists accidents. Methods Comparative analysis of everyday biometeorological phases for the city of Kragujevac determinated by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and motorcyclists and bicyclists accident evidence received from Kragujevac traffic police for the period 2004-2008. Results There were 5,180 traffic accidents in this period, with 180 accidents in which 77 motorcyclists and 116 bicyclists were knocked down. Most of the accidents were in 2008 (53) and the least in 2005 (28). Most accidents occurred during August (28) and between 19.00 and 20.00 hours (18). There were no accidents during January, between 04.00 and 06.00 hours. There were 85% accidents in the urban area. Most of 169 males were aged 16-20 and 21-25 years (20 and 21). Most of 24 females (6) were aged 11-15 years. Those who caused the accident mostly sustained injuries due to improper speed limit (31), while the victims due to the disrespect of street-crossing priorities (32). Forty-one motorcyclists and 85 bicyclists suffered mild body injuries. Thirty-one motorcyclists and 27 bicyclist suffered severe injuries. Five motorcyclists and four bicyclists ended lethally. Most accidents happened in biometeorological phases 9 (63), 4 (32) and 1 (31). Conclusion Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation between accidents and biometeorological phases, with most accidents occurring during stabile warm weather and rapid penetrations of cold fronts, and with a sudden switch of weather conditions.


Gavrilov M.B.,University of Novi Sad | Tosic I.,University of Belgrade | Markovic S.B.,University of Novi Sad | Unkasevic M.,University of Belgrade | Petrovic P.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Idojaras | Year: 2016

The annual and seasonal trends of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were analyzed on the territory of Vojvodina, north Serbia. We used observed, quality controlled, homogenized, and spatially averaged data from 9 meteorological stations during two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Positive trends were found in 29 out of the 30 analyzed time series using a linear tendency (trend) equation, while negative trends were found in only 1 case. After the application of the classical Mann-Kendall (MK) test, statistically significant positive trends were confirmed in 15 series, while in remaining cases, statistically significant trends were not confirmed. After applying the modified MK test, positive trends were found in 26 series, and 4 cases were with no trend. We find that significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring and summer; and they are most numerous in the time series of monthly mean temperatures. In accordance with the behavior of analyzed trends, the increase of temperatures is dominant in Vojvodina. © 2016, Hungarian Meteorological Service. All rights reserved.


Gavrilov M.,University of Novi Sad | Lazic L.,University of Novi Sad | Pesic A.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Milutinovic M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | And 3 more authors.
Physical Geography | Year: 2010

The influence of hail suppression by silver iodide seeding on the trend in the number of hail days (hail trend) in the Republic of Serbia was studied in three cases: (1) in Vojvodina region, Northern Province of Serbia, in two periods, from 1967 to 2002 when there was no hail suppression, and from 2003 to 2009 when hail suppression was extended to the entire territory; (2) in Serbia proper (Serbia without the Provinces), in two periods, from 1967 to 1984 when hail suppression was spreading, and from 1985 to 2009 when hail suppression occurred over the entire territory; and (3) in the same period from 1967 to 2002 on the two adjacent territories of Vojvodina and Serbia without the Provinces, where no hail suppression occurred in the first and hail suppression did occur in the second. The hail trend in Serbia was calculated on the basis of all observed data from all synoptic and climatological stations for the period 1967 to 2009. The results associate hail suppression with the stagnation of the hail trend rather than its decrease, and show that hail suppression did not have statistically unique influence on the hail trend.


Romanic D.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Curic M.,University of Belgrade | Lompar M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Jovicic I.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2016

Koshava is a local wind usually observed in the cold part of the year over the large part of Serbia, parts of Romania, parts of Hungary, and east Croatia. The main characteristics of the Koshava wind are its high wind speed, southeasterly direction, persistence, and gustiness. This paper analyses the synoptic [Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) and Eurasian anticyclones (EAs)] as well as the mesoscale contributors to the Koshava wind. Time and spatial features of the pressure systems have been analysed using an automatic cyclone tracking scheme. The results show that the MCs and EAs that generate Koshava are approximately 1000km away from the Koshava region. It is demonstrated that the strong anticyclones are the main trigger for the Koshava wind. Less than 3% of the Koshava winds occurred without the occurrence of either an anticyclone or a cyclone. The Synoptic Koshava Index (SKI), developed in this study and defined as the difference between the area-averaged mean sea level pressures in the anticyclone and cyclone regions, has been shown to be a good indicator of the Koshava occurrence. Koshava has also been investigated from the perspective of the gap flow windstorm. The across-mountain pressure difference, ΔP, is the most important mesoscale contributor to the Koshava characteristics. The across-mountain potential temperature difference, Δθ, together with ΔP, can be successfully used to predict Koshava's occurrence. A simple (linear) probabilistic model for forecasting the Koshava mean hourly wind speed has been constructed. The results demonstrate that the occurrence of the Koshava wind can be predicted with the significantly higher accuracy than the Koshava mean hourly speed. The correlation between Koshava and winds at higher levels is small. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.


Krzi A.,Institute of Physics | Tosic I.,University of Belgrade | Djurdjevic V.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Djurdjevic V.,University of Belgrade | And 3 more authors.
Climate Research | Year: 2011

Changes in 7 climate indices related to temperature or precipitation in Serbia were estimated for the reference period 1961-1990 and for the future period 2071-2100, as derived from the results of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM. In order to verify the appropriateness of the EBU-POM to simulate regional climate in the future, changes in the indices of intensive events were studied on the basis of the model data and daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 17 meteorological stations in Serbia for the reference period. The results show an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 and 4°C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 and 6 mm for the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. It is likely that the number of days with absolute maximum temperature >30°C (tropical days) will increase, while the total number of days with absolute minimum temperature <0°C (frost days) will decrease in the future. A shorter duration of the frost period and a longer duration of dry and vegetation periods over the Serbian region is expected. © Inter-Research 2011.


Romanic D.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Curic M.,University of Belgrade | Jovicic I.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Lompar M.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015

In this study, a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends of the Koshava wind during the period between 1949 and 2010 is carried out. Koshava is a strong wind that blows from southeast quadrant over Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Siberian high and West-Mediterranean cyclones, together with the orography of the eastern Balkan, are the main drivers of the Koshava wind. The trend analyses are performed on wind data sets from five synoptic weather stations, all situated in the region where the Koshava wind is fully developed. Koshava wind speeds are divided into two categories: (1) all wind speeds and (2) wind speeds above 5ms-1. Two homogeneity tests are used to inspect the quality of wind speed and wind direction time series. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator are used to analyze trends of the Koshava wind speeds and the annual number of days with the Koshava wind. Statistically significant negative trends of the Koshava wind speeds and wind activity are observed at all five weather stations and are more pronounced for wind speeds above 5ms-1. The negative trends of the Koshava wind are mostly related to the changes in the synoptic circulation, temperature and weakening of the Siberian high and West-Mediterranean cyclones. It is shown that the observed decline of the Koshava wind has a significant impact on reducing the wind energy potential in the region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.


Nickovic S.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Cvetkovic B.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia | Madonna F.,CNR Institute of Methodologies for Environmental analysis | Rosoldi M.,CNR Institute of Methodologies for Environmental analysis | And 3 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2016

Dust aerosols are very efficient ice nuclei, important for heterogeneous cloud glaciation even in regions distant from desert sources. A new generation of ice nucleation parameterizations, including dust as an ice nucleation agent, opens the way towards a more accurate treatment of cold cloud formation in atmospheric models. Using such parameterizations, we have developed a regional dust-atmospheric modelling system capable of predicting, in real time, dust-induced ice nucleation. We executed the model with the added ice nucleation component over the Mediterranean region, exposed to moderate Saharan dust transport, over two periods lasting 15 and 9 days, respectively. The model results were compared against satellite and ground-based cloud-ice-related measurements, provided by SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) and the CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO) in Potenza, southern Italy. The predicted ice nuclei concentration showed a reasonable level of agreement when compared against the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cloud ice water. The developed methodology permits the use of ice nuclei as input into the cloud microphysics schemes of atmospheric models, assuming that this approach could improve the predictions of cloud formation and associated precipitation. © 2016 Author(s).


Berdon N.P.,Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Geographica Pannonica | Year: 2012

The impact of the Arctic Oscillations (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) is considered as the most prominent of atmospheric oscillations in the area of the northern hemisphere from the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic. The aim of this study was to determine how these fluctuations affect the temperature and precipitation in Serbia. This paper explores the impact for the period of 50 years (1958-2007) by months and in 20 synoptic stations. The influence of the AO on temperature anomalies in Serbia can be seen by the correlation coefficient, the largest in the month of January, while its impact on precipitation is the largest in the month of February. After the test of linear correlation between the NAO index and temperature anomalies for the base period 1971-2000 for 20 synoptic stations in Serbia, it has been found that the highest correlation is in the month of January. The correlation between the NAO and the precipitation anomalies for the stations mentioned above is the highest in the month of February. Spatial patterns of the AO and the NAO influence on temperature in January and on precipitation in February were obtained by applying principal component analysis.

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