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Zollo A.L.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Rillo V.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Bucchignani E.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Montesarchio M.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Mercogliano P.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015

This study presents a detailed analysis of the present and expected future extreme climate conditions over Italy through the use of some extreme indicators. Climate data for this analysis were provided by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, using different grid spacing to ascertain the real importance of using higher resolution climate data, especially over such a complex topography as Italy. Four simulations were carried out at spatial resolutions of 0.125° and 0.0715°, driven by ERA-Interim Reanalysis and the CMCC-CM global model. We investigated the ability of the model to represent realistically the climatology of a subset of climate indicators defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for precipitation and temperature. Several high-resolution observational data sets available over some Italian regions were therefore used in order to offset the limited number of observations available over Italy in the E-OBS data set and its coarse grid. We found that the increase in resolution could have interesting benefits in representing such extreme indices, especially in the more orographically complex areas. Finally, we investigated future climate changes regarding extreme weather events expected under anthropogenic climate change scenarios, employing the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentrations, showing that such events are expected to increase over Italy. © 2015 Royal Meteorological Society.


Bucchignani E.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Montesarchio M.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Zollo A.L.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy | Mercogliano P.,Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015

This study presents the results of dynamically downscaled climate simulations over Italy produced with the COSMO-CLM model. Three simulations forced by ERA-Interim Reanalysis were conducted respectively at a spatial resolution of 0.22°, 0.125° and 0.0715° over the period 1979-2011. The results were analysed in terms of 2-m temperature and precipitation with the aim of assessing the model's ability to reproduce these important features of the Italian climate. The results were validated by comparing model output with different independent observational datasets. Values of temperature and precipitation show a general good agreement with observations, with a fair reduction of errors in all seasons as the resolution is increased. Two simulations at a spatial resolution of 0.0715°, driven by the global model CMCC-CM, were performed over the period 1971-2100, employing the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate projections show a significant warming expected in Italy at the end of the 21st century, along with a general reduction in precipitation, particularly evident in spring and summer. © 2015 Royal Meteorological Society.

Loading Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy collaborators
Loading Regional Models and Geo Hydrogeological Impacts Division Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC Capua Italy collaborators