Prognos AG

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Prognos AG

Germany

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Kramer J.-P.,Leibniz University of Hanover | Kramer J.-P.,Prognos AG | Marinelli E.,European Commission | Iammarino S.,University of Sussex | Diez J.R.,Leibniz University of Hanover
Technovation | Year: 2011

The sources of value creation are increasingly relying on intangible assets (IAs). IAs are the lifeblood of knowledge-intensive industries where the new value added is disproportionally based on specialized, non-repetitious activities. However, while the role of IAs is recognised as central to sustain the competitiveness of firms and innovation systems, the understanding of the mechanisms through which IAs display their effects has not yet been fully grasped. By focussing on the processes through which investments in IAs occur, this paper aims to explore the key dimensions through which two specific IAs organisational and network capital are enhanced and contribute to the innovativeness and embeddedness of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) in regional innovation systems. On the basis of over forty in-depth interviews to leading staff of German and UK flagship MNEs operating in the automotive, life science and ICT sectors, the paper shows that MNEs adopt rather distinctive strategies to develop IAs; that MNE degree of local embeddedness is strictly related to both the kind of IA strategy and the local environment; and that causation mechanisms are at work between MNE embeddedness and regional creation of IAs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Boywitt C.D.,University of Mannheim | Zwingmann C.,Protestant University of Applied Sciences | Zwingmann C.,Prognos AG | Behrendt R.,Gesundheitsamt Dusseldorf | Schneitler H.,Gesundheitsamt Dusseldorf
Sucht | Year: 2012

Aims: Aim of the present research was to evaluate the effectiveness of a psychosocial counseling program for patients in substitution maintenance treatment. Criteria for effectiveness were psychosocial well-being, individual goal attainment, and drug abuse behavior. Method: For that purpose, a sample of clients who were in the program at the time was assessed at two points of time. The two assessment waves were separated timewise by twelve months in order to detect short-term to medium-term effects of the counseling program. Results: The central variable psychosocial well-being shows pronounced positive developments. Furthermore, the degree of individual goal attainment is overall positive. In addition, clients and counselors show high levels of agreement in their assessment of the clients' situation. However, drug abuse behavior shows no positive development. Conclusion: The psychosocial counseling program seems to stabilize the clients' psychosocial situation and is thus an essential component of substitution treatment. © 2012 Verlag Hans Huber, Hogrefe AG.


Grant
Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CSA-SA | Phase: SST.2008.2.7.2. | Award Amount: 2.34M | Year: 2009

Factors like global competition, labour cost, recycling technologies and environmental restrictions force companies to implement new logistics and manufacturing systems. From a transports point-of-view most of these new systems (e.g. offshoring) have negative impacts as they induce additional freight transport. But on the other hand they are implemented as they have positive effects like cheaper production processes (e.g. due to economies of scale) or even environmental benefits (e.g. due to recycling). The objective of this study is - to give an insight into new logistics and manufacturing trends and - their impacts on economic and environmental sustainability, - to provide scenario based recommendations for European freight transport policy considering both economic and environmental sustainability and - to improve existing tools (TRANSTOOLS, I-O tables) used for impact assessment and cost benefit analysis. This will be done by analyzing status and trends of the external factors (world trade, policy & legislation, transport system, technology) and performing case studies in crucial economic sectors. These cases studies will analyze new best practices of logistics and manufacturing systems, when CO2 emissions are considered an important design criterion. These microeconomic results will be used to improve TRANSTOOLS and I-O tables. Based on these results a scenario analysis will be done to estimate the possible impacts of these new best practices on European environmental (criteria: freight transports carbon footprint, products logistics and manufacturing carbon footprint) and economic (criterion: economic growth) sustainability. Storylines will be developed and their likeness, chances and risks estimated. Finally transport policys costs and benefits will be assessed for the different scenarios. This will lead to recommendations for transport policy for reducing transport emissions without negative impacts on the other sustainability criteria.


Steinbach J.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research | Seefeldt F.,Prognos AG | Brandt E.,TU Braunschweig | Burger V.,Oeko - Institute e.V. | And 4 more authors.
Energy and Environment | Year: 2013

At present, expanding the use of renewable energy sources for heating (RES-H) relies predominantly on publicly funded support instruments. As these are subject to subsidy cuts and suspensions, these instruments do not provide long-term security for investors and technology suppliers. Although feed-in tariffs and quota-based systems are the major support schemes for renewable energy sources in the electricity sector, similar policy designs have not been applied to RES-H. This paper presents and evaluates three different policy instruments which have the potential to finance RES-H without using public funds: a physical quota system for biomass, a technology-based quota system (Portfolio Model) and a remunerationbased system (Premium model). The assessment suggests that while the Portfolio Model and the Premium Model are both promising policies to enhance RES-H deployment, there is greater acceptance among stakeholders for the Premium Model.


Hirth L.,Neon Neue Energieokonomik Gmbh neon | Hirth L.,Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change | Hirth L.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Ziegenhagen I.,Prognos AG
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2015

Balancing power is used to quickly restore the supply-demand balance in power systems. The need for this tends to be increased by the use of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) such as wind and solar power. This paper reviews three channels through which VRE and balancing systems interact: the impact of VRE forecast errors on balancing reserve requirements; the supply of balancing services by VRE generators; and the incentives to improve forecasting provided by imbalance charges. The paper reviews the literature, provides stylized facts from German market data, and suggests policy options. Surprisingly, while German wind and solar capacity has tripled since 2008, balancing reserves have been reduced by 15%, and costs by 50%. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Gleis M.,Federal Environment Agency | Alwast H.,Prognos AG | Riemann K.-A.,RSP GmbH
International Conference on Thermal Treatment Technologies and Hazardous Waste Combustors 2010 | Year: 2010

In Germany there were about 5.2 million tonnes of ashes/slags from waste-to-energy (wte) plants in 2009. Predominantly the ashes will be recycled for road construction, landfill construction or underground backfilling. The recovery of metals from the ashes and the substitution of natural resources make a substantial contribution to the protection of climate and conservation of natural resources. A qualified assumption of produced ashes from waste-to-energy plants and a characterization of the ashes regarding composition and usability will be presented as well as quality requirements for recycling. Based on state of the art ash treatment, the technical opportunities for a further treatment to improve the separation of ferrous and non-ferrous metals will be discussed.


News Article | November 4, 2016
Site: phys.org

In the next decades, population aging in Germany will accelerate and also induce a decline of the total population. These demographic changes can be expected to have a profound impact on the governmental budget. While changes in public expenditures have been forecasted regularly since 2005, the revenue side has received less attention to date. A new study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology FIT and the Prognos AG sheds light on the impact of demographic change on the future development of tax revenues. The study focuses on the development of income tax revenues given a shrinking working population, but also considers sales tax revenues, which account for a similarly large share of total tax revenues. Fraunhofer FIT quantifies income tax revenues in the years 2030, 2045 and 2060 using simulation models based on microeconomic data. Starting from a scenario without any demographic changes, the study distinguishes three possible paths for the development of the population in Germany. These correspond to the variants 2 (continuity), 3 (relatively old population) and 6 (relatively young population) of the official forecast of the Federal Statistical Office. In all scenarios, the expected demographic changes are found to have a clear negative impact on both income and sales tax revenues. This holds especially true for the more distant future, when the population in Germany will not only be markedly older but also smaller than today. By 2060, income tax revenues will be between 12 and 21 percent lower than in a scenario without demographic change, whereas sales tax revenues will be between 13 and 25 percent lower. Population aging increases the impact of various deductibility rules on total income tax revenues, in particular the impact of the deductibility of old-age and health insurance provisions. The tax code actually enhances the generosity of old-age provision deductions until 2040, whereas the taxable share of old-age pensions increases. The income tax balance of this "deferred taxation" is negative and the problem is aggravated by demographic change. Due to expected increases in real incomes, however, demographic change does not imply an absolute drop in income and sales tax revenues in the next decades. Explore further: IBM earnings dip as sales fall again


Theory suggests that providing consumers with an estimated life-cycle cost (LCC) may make them buy more energy-efficient household appliances in cases where energy efficiency is cost effective. This article evaluates the link between the provision of LCC and consumer behavior by using an online field experiment for cooling appliances. Internet users arriving at a commercially operating price comparison website were randomly assigned to two experimental groups, and the groups were exposed to different visual stimuli. The control group received regular product price information, whereas the treatment group was offered additional information about estimated operating cost and total LCC. Consumers' click behavior was evaluated with multiple regression controlling for several product characteristics (n = 1,969 clicks). We find that LCC disclosure reduces the mean specific energy use of chosen cooling appliances by 2. 5% (p < 0.01), making it a potentially interesting approach for environmental policy regarding the market transformation toward more energy-efficient household appliances. However, LCC disclosure also decreases the number of clicks from the price comparison website to final retailers by about 23% (p < 0.01), which makes it-in the format chosen here-undesirable from a business perspective. Therefore, future research should clarify under what (if any) conditions can monetary energy cost disclosure be associated with more positive effects for price comparison websites. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.


Deutsch M.,Prognos AG
Journal of Industrial Ecology | Year: 2010

Comprehensive assessments of final consumption have identified " housing" as a major contributor to total environmental impacts. Within this category, electrical-energy-using products are important. Do consumers opt for more energy-efficient household appliances if they are provided with life cycle cost (LCC)-that is, the sum of purchase price and operating cost estimated over the life span of the appliance? And what consequences does LCC disclosure have for business? Physical energy figures shown on appliance labels may be cognitively demanding for consumers, whereas monetary information promises to simplify the decision problem. Despite the rising interest in monetary cost disclosure, its effectiveness relative to physical cost disclosure has not been rigorously evaluated. This research approached the question of effectiveness with an online field experiment for washing machines. Customers of a commercially operating online shop were randomly assigned to two groups. The control group was provided with regular product price information; the treatment group received additional LCC information. A total of 2,065 clicks were recorded and analyzed with multiple regression that controlled for several product characteristics. The evidence suggests that LCC disclosure decreases the mean specific energy use of chosen washing machines by 0.8% (p < 0.01) and their mean specific water use by 0.7% (p < 0.05). As to business implications, LCC disclosure had no effect on the indicator of retail volume, which makes it unattractive for retailers to provide LCC on their own initiative. © 2010 by Yale University.

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