Entity

Time filter

Source Type

Punta Gorda, FL, United States

Murphy J.F.,Process Safety Services
Process Safety Progress | Year: 2011

This article summarizes the appropriate use of layer of protection analysis and inherent safety to prevent low probability and high consequence accidents. © 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE). Source


Murphy J.F.,Process Safety Services | Conner J.,Eiger Consulting LLC
28th Center for Chemical Process Safety International Conference 2013, CCPS - Topical Conference at the 2013 AIChE Spring Meeting and 9th Global Congress on Process Safety | Year: 2013

Last year at the 8th Global Congress for Process Safety we presented a paper entitled, "Beware of the Black Swan: The Limitations of Risk Analysis for Predicting the Extreme Impact of Rare Process Safety Incidents." The paper discussed the difficulties of predicting black swan events - rare but catastrophic occurrences which continue to happen in the chemical processing industries despite the focus that has been brought to process safety over the past 30-40 years. Once black swan events occur, after investigations and development of lessons learned, they become white swans. By white swans we mean these type of events become more predictable and as we do hazard identification and risk analysis we become cognizant of the similar potential scenarios in new plants and plant modifications. - at least for a while. This paper discusses how white swans slowly become greyer as time goes on if the lessons learned from black swan events are not kept fresh. Examples of black swans that become white swans and then become grey as time goes on will be discussed. Ideas of how to keep the white swans from becoming grey with time, including the key role of Management, will also be discussed. Source


Murphy J.F.,Process Safety Services | Conner J.,President Eiger Consulting LLC
Process Safety Progress | Year: 2012

This article will discuss the concept of the black swan, the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events, as applied to chemical process risk assessment. Lessons learned from black swan events of the past and the applicability of these lessons to the design and operations of existing and new chemical processing facilities will be discussed. The limitations of layer of protection analysis (LOPA) and other risk analysis tools in predicting black swan events will be examined. The discussion on the limitations of risk analysis will include examples of hazards scenarios where risk analysis tools such as LOPA may not be appropriate. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE). Source


Murphy J.F.,Process Safety Services | Conner J.,Eiger Consulting LLC
Process Safety Progress | Year: 2014

Last year at the 8th Global Congress for Process Safety, we presented a paper entitled, "Beware of the Black Swan: The Limitations of Risk Analysis for Predicting the Extreme Impact of Rare Process Safety Incidents." The paper discussed the difficulties of predicting black swan events-rare but catastrophic occurrences which continue to happen in the chemical processing industries despite the focus that has been brought to process safety over the past 30-40 years. Once black swan events occur, after investigations and development of lessons learned, they become white swans. By white swans, we mean these type of events become more predictable and as we do hazard identification and risk analysis we become cognizant of the similar potential scenarios in new plants and plant modifications-at least for a while. This article discusses how white swans slowly become greyer as time goes on if the lessons learned from black swan events are not kept fresh. Examples of black swans that become white swans and then become grey as time goes on will be discussed. Ideas of how to keep the white swans from becoming grey with time, including the key role of Management, will also be discussed. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers. Source


This article is a continuation of three articles that I have authored or coauthored on the "black swan," the rare and unpredictable catastrophic event. The first two papers discussed the concept of the black swan as applied to the chemical and petroleum processing industries and the difficulty in predicting such events. The third paper discussed the fact that we have difficulty maintaining the lesson's learned from black swan events that have occurred. I have survived and witnessed several black swans. Each has affected me personally and professionally. Black swan events are rare but inevitable. Some individuals and companies survive black swan events and continue on while others do not. I have learned that many black swan events, although initially viewed as catastrophes, can result in opportunities from a process safety improvement, career, and personal perspective. This article presents examples of black swan events that have impacted my career in process safety, often in a positive way, and strategies for surviving these "black swan" events from a personal, professional, and a company point of view. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers. Source

Discover hidden collaborations