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Agency: Cordis | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: SC5-01-2014 | Award Amount: 14.97M | Year: 2015

The goal of PRIMAVERA is to deliver novel, advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models (GCMs), capable of simulating and predicting regional climate with unprecedented fidelity, out to 2050. This capability will deliver innovative climate science and a new generation of advanced Earth System Models. Sector-specific end-users in policy and business will be identified and engaged individually, with iterative feedback, to ensure that new climate information is tailored, actionable and strengthening societal risk management decisions. These goals will be achieved through the development of coupled GCMs from seven groups across Europe, with sufficient resolution to reproduce realistic weather and climate features (~25km mesh size), in addition to enhanced process parameterisation. Thorough assessment will use innovative process-based metrics and the latest observational and reanalysis datasets. Targeted experimental design will reduce inter-model spread and produce robust projections, forming the European contribution to the CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, led by PRIMAVERA. It is the first time that high-resolution coupled GCMs will be used under a single experimental protocol. Coordination, and the underlying process-understanding, will significantly increase the robustness of our findings. Our new capabilities will be used to improve understanding of the drivers of variability and change in European climate, including extremes, since such regional changes continue to be characterised by high uncertainty. We will also explore the frontiers of climate modelling and of high performance computing to produce simulations with a reduced reliance on physical parameterisations. These will explicitly resolve key processes such as ocean eddies, and will include new stochastic parameterisations to represent sub-grid scale processes. These frontiers simulations will further our understanding of the robustness of climate projections.

Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP | Phase: ENV.2012.6.1-1 | Award Amount: 13.24M | Year: 2012

Recent advances in our understanding and forecasting of climate and climate change have brought us to the point where skilful and useful predictions are being made. These forecasts hold the potential for being of great value for a wide range of decision-makers who are affected by the vagaries of the climate and who would benefit from understanding and better managing climate-related risks. However, such climate information is currently under-used, mis-used, or not used at all. Therefore there exists the opportunity to develop new technologies to properly exploit emerging capability from the climate community, and more importantly, to engage with the users of such technologies to develop useful and useable tools. The EUPORIAS project will develop and deliver reliable predictions of the impacts of future climatic conditions on a number of key sectors (to include water, energy, health, transport, agriculture and tourism), on timescales from seasons to years ahead. The project will do this through a strong engagement with the forecast providers and the users/decision-makers, who are both represented within the project. EUPORIAS will develop climate services and tools targeted to the needs of the users, and will share knowledge to promote the technologies created within the project. EUPORIAS will also improve the users understanding of their vulnerability to varying climatic conditions as well as better prepare them to utilise climate forecasts, thereby reducing risks and costs associated with responding to varying climatic conditions. As a result businesses, governments, NGOs, and society in general will be able to better manage risks and opportunities associated with varying climatic conditions, thus becoming more resilient to the variability of the climate. The project will provide the basis for developing a strong climate service market within Europe, offering the opportunity for businesses to capitalise on improved management of weather and climate risks.

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