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Rosenzweig C.,NASA | Rosenzweig C.,Columbia University | Elliott J.,Columbia University | Elliott J.,University of Chicago | And 17 more authors.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | Year: 2014

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Van Hinsberg A.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Van Der Bilt W.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | De Knegt B.,Wageningen University | Sijtsma F.,University of Groningen | Leneman H.,Wageningen University
Landschap | Year: 2011

Models play an important role in elaborating as well as calculating future scenarios for the Nature Outlook 2010-2040 proj'ect. In contrast with earlier editions, no process models were used in this outlook for assessing the effects of a possible future scenario on nature policy. More simplified dose-effect models were used instead in order to examine the impact of normative scenarios, based on dominant societal challenges for nature policy. Relevance to policy makers was of primary concern in order for the results to contribute to the discussion regarding the goals of future policy. This article treats the way models were used in the Nature Outlook 2010-2040 project and evaluates the added value of this approach compared to that of earlier outlooks. Consequences of specific choices become clear so that cause-effect relations between challenges can be distinguished. This provides building blocks for future policy and therefore enhances the relevance of the results. These should however be critically assessed as the applied models greatly simplify reality.

Johns T.C.,UK Met Office | Royer J.-F.,Meteo - France | Hoschel I.,Free University of Berlin | Huebener H.,Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology | And 20 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2011

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2. 4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative to 1990, with further large reductions needed beyond that to achieve the E1 concentrations pathway. Negative allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions at and beyond 2100 cannot be ruled out for the E1 scenario. There is self-consistency between the multi-model ensemble of allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions and the E1 scenario emissions from IMAGE 2. 4. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Giupponi C.,University of Venice | Borsuk M.E.,Dartmouth College | de Vries B.J.M.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Hasselmann K.,Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Environmental Modelling and Software | Year: 2013

Integrated models are important tools to investigate the interactions between planetary processes and the growing impacts of human populations - in short: global change. Current models still have significant shortcomings, notably in their representation of socio-economic processes and the feedbacks between these and the environmental system. They are also often not designed with sufficient transparency to enable participation of interested parties or effective communication with stakeholders and policy makers. These deficiencies are discussed and possible directions for improvement are identified. This Thematic Issue provides a collection of papers that offer a number of innovative ideas for remedying these shortcomings using novel methods and approaches. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Kooijman A.,University of Amsterdam | Van Der Hagen H.,Dunea Duin and Water | Noordijk E.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
Landschap | Year: 2012

Coastal dune grasslands are under threat mainly due to grass and shrub encroachment. A surplus of nitrogen is an important factor. At the beginning of the last century the nitrogen load was about 5 kg ha-1 year -1. Because of agriculture, industry and traffic the amount of nitrogen went up to about 45 kg. The last twenty years it has been reduced to 30 kg ha-1 year-1 or a bit lower. Recent papers state that the critical load in 62% of the dune area is met. Dune managers and researchers are not convinced due to the continuing process of grass encroachment. Because of an intensified monitoring network, especially in and along the coastal area, this could be proven. There is an additional 6 kg ha-1 year -1, which has to be taken in consideration. The sea and especially the waters along the beach along the mainland coast and on the Wadden sea produce ammonium vapour, partially from organic origin. Another problem which has to be addressed is the accumulation of organic matter in the soil profile, which probably accumulated in higher amounts than under low nitrogen conditions. This heritage has to be taken into account when management measures are taken. Cattle grazing practices might not be sufficient to maintain the (European) goals for dune grasslands (grey dunes).

Dammers E.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Van Hinsberg A.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Vader J.,Lithuanian Energy Institute | Wiersinga W.,Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies IMARES
Landschap | Year: 2011

The Nature Outlook 2010-2040 was produced by applying the scenario approach. The outlook explores some alternative directions in which nature policy may evolve in the long term and the implications of this for nature policy in the short term. The subsequent parts of the scenario study enable policy makers to gradually gain insight into alternative desirable futures of nature and alternative policy strategies to realize them. This is further stimulated by the character of the scenarios, which contain not only qualitative storylines, but also concrete images and quantitative information. In order to build such scenarios various methods were applied, like model calculations, scenario workshops, and design activities. By participating in the scenario study, policy makers not only provided valuable insights but also became more receptive for the results.

Brede M.,University of Southampton | De Vries B.J.M.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
Environmental Modelling and Software | Year: 2013

In this paper we present a stylized economy-energy-climate model and discuss the role of the atmosphere, fossil fuels, and a stock of accumulated knowledge about renewable energy technologies in collaboratively and competitively managed worlds. The model highlights that assumptions about the 'degree of competition' and about choices of lumping economic regions, and hence their heterogeneity, strongly affect model predictions about the rate of fossil fuel use and, consequently, the rate of climate change.In the model, decisionmakers (actors) make decisions about investment allocations into the goods producing economy and into carbon-based and non-carbon-based (renewable) energy supply, the remainder being for consumption. Actors are faced with the following dilemma situation.Economic growth requires energy and will therefore accelerate fossil fuel depletion and generate growth in carbon emissions, the latter leading to global warming and climate change induced damages. By developing non-carbon energy sources, which come initially at a higher cost than fossil fuels, growth of carbon emissions can be curtailed. Trying to optimize a consumption-related utility, actors base their decisions on the economically most rational investment portfolio for a finite time horizon. However, in their decisionmaking, they are constrained by the choices of other actors.We consider two prototypical situations: (i) a collaborative environment where all actors strive to maximize a world utility - the global optimum - and (ii) a situation where actors optimize the utility of their own country - a solution that corresponds to a Nash equilibrium. The difference between both outcomes can be used to classify the severity of the 'tragedy of the commons effect'. We present results about the dependence of the severity of this effect on several key parameters (i) the number of actors, (ii) the heterogeneity and severity of expected climate damages, (iii) assumptions about technology diffusion and (iv) fossil fuel depletion. © 2012 .

De Wit B.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Hajer M.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
Landschap | Year: 2011

The Nature Outlook is one of the regular products of PBL Netherlands Environmental Agency. For the present Outlook there has been quite a lot of interaction between researchers and policy makers and societal groups. Ideas that have been developed during the process of making the Outlook, have been incorporated in policy deliberations. Especially the input of PBL in the IBO-Natuur and Heroverweging policy processes is discussed. The various roles enacted by PBL in these policy processes, are characterised using our own typology.

De Wit B.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Wieringa K.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving | Hajer M.,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
Landschap | Year: 2011

It is important that a future study like the Nature Outlook of PBL acknowledges developments in politics and society. These form the embedding of the Outlook. Therefore it is instrumental to study the developments that have taken place before and during the execution of the Nature Oudook and to establish the way in which they influence its reception and use. Since the cabinet Rutte got into office, the politicization of nature policy in the Netherlands has become manifest. In this article a sketch of the situation is presented and some possible explanations for this politicization are discussed. Next the choices made in the development process of the Nature Outlook are presented. Discussions about the aims of nature policy played an important role in that respect. Finally the question whether this Outlook provides an adequate response to the politicized situation, will be answered.

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