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Lindegarth M.,Tjarno | Bergstrom U.,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences | Mattila J.,Åbo Akademi University | Olenin S.,Klaipeda University | And 9 more authors.
Ambio | Year: 2014

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. © The Author(s) 2013.

Hietala J.,Pellervo Economic Research PTT | Hanninen R.H.,Finnish Forest Research Institute | Toppinen A.,University of Helsinki
Forest Science | Year: 2013

The business environment for sawnwood producers based in the traditional forest industry countries of the boreal zone has changed dramatically in the last decade. Among the greatest changes is the establishment of the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, the effect of the associated exchange rate changes on international forest industry trade in European markets has not previously been examined. The present study attempts to fill this gap by analyzing the effects of currency movements on Finland's and Sweden's competi-tiveness in the international sawnwood market. Johansen's multivariate cointegration method was applied for formulation of the separate partial equilibrium model systems for bilateral trade flows from Finland and Sweden to analyze pricing of sawn softwood for the UK market in 1995-2008. Rather than competitive markets, our findings indicate the existence of price discrimination and market power on the part of exporting firms. The results show that Finnish exports have been greatly affected by the currency movements between euros and British pounds in the UK market. Furthermore, the estimated values for exchange rate pass-through coefficients indicate that Finnish exporters have passed on some of the exchange rate changes between these currencies to the UK customers. This result is in line with similar estimations for the period before the EMU. The present estimates show a slightly lesser degree of exchange rate pass-through, possibly suggesting transition toward a more competitive environment in the UK's sawn softwood market. © 2013 by the Society of American Foresters.

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