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LEI, Netherlands

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Pluess T.,University of Fribourg | Jarosik V.,Charles University | Jarosik V.,Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic | Pysek P.,Charles University | And 5 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2012

Although issues related to the management of invasive alien species are receiving increasing attention, little is known about which factors affect the likelihood of success of management measures. We applied two data mining techniques, classification trees and boosted trees, to identify factors that relate to the success of management campaigns aimed at eradicating invasive alien invertebrates, plants and plant pathogens. We assembled a dataset of 173 different eradication campaigns against 94 species worldwide, about a half of which (50.9%) were successful. Eradications in man-made habitats, greenhouses in particular, were more likely to succeed than those in (semi-)natural habitats. In man-made habitats the probability of success was generally high in Australasia, while in Europe and the Americas it was higher for local infestations that are easier to deal with, and for international campaigns that are likely to profit from cross-border cooperation. In (semi-) natural habitats, eradication campaigns were more likely to succeed for plants introduced as an ornamental and escaped from cultivation prior to invasion. Averaging out all other factors in boosted trees, pathogens, bacteria and viruses were most, and fungi the least likely to be eradicated; for plants and invertebrates the probability was intermediate. Our analysis indicates that initiating the campaign before the extent of infestation reaches the critical threshold, starting to eradicate within the first four years since the problem has been noticed, paying special attention to species introduced by the cultivation pathway, and applying sanitary measures can substantially increase the probability of eradication success. Our investigations also revealed that information on socioeconomic factors, which are often considered to be crucial for eradication success, is rarely available, and thus their relative importance cannot be evaluated. Future campaigns should carefully document socioeconomic factors to enable tests of their importance. © 2012 Pluess et al.


Kavallari A.,Part of Wageningen UR | Smeets E.,Part of Wageningen UR | Tabeau A.,Part of Wageningen UR
Operational Research | Year: 2014

This paper employs the general equilibrium model MAGNET to assess the effects of the European Commission's proposals for the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) on land use changes in the European Union and worldwide. The focus of the paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the land use changes to different assumptions on the blending mix between ethanol and biodiesel for meeting the 5 % blending target of first generation biofuels, on the intensification level of agricultural production and on the available agricultural land. The results suggest that net land use changes (LUC) in the EU due to the revised RED are limited and are more sensitive to the share of ethanol and biodiesel in meeting the blending target compared to different assumptions on the availability of land and of yields that can be achieved when substituting land with other production factors. LUC in the rest of the world stem from increased EU imports of feedstock and of biofuels. LUC is especially sensitive to the substitution between land and fertilizer in regions with extensive agricultural production systems. In regions trading vegetable oil and oilseeds with the EU, and in regions producing ethanol, LUC is influenced by the share of ethanol in the biofuel mix used in the EU. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

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