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Thuiller W.,CNRS Alpine Ecology Laboratory | Gueguen M.,CNRS Alpine Ecology Laboratory | Georges D.,CNRS Alpine Ecology Laboratory | Bonet R.,Parc National des Ecrins | And 7 more authors.
Ecography | Year: 2014

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species' preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re-shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α-diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β-diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high-altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection. © 2014 The Authors. Source


Dobremez L.,IRSTEA | Nettier B.,IRSTEA | Garde L.,Center Detudes Et Of Realisations Pastorales Alpes Mediterranee Cerpam | Vieux S.,Center Detudes Et Of Realisations Pastorales Alpes Mediterranee Cerpam | And 2 more authors.
Revue de Geographie Alpine | Year: 2014

The Ecrins National Park organized a meeting of its Agriculture Commission to discuss repeated droughts and fears arising from the impact of alpine farming practices on high altitude environments. The alpine pasture was pronounced an area of shared challenges in terms of climate change, involving the co-responsibility of livestock farmers and the Park. It was also seen as an ideal area for observation and intervention based on cooperation. The ideas put forward led to the creation of the Sentinel Alpine Pastures programme. The ultimate aim of this programme is to anticipate the impact of climate events in order to ensure sustainable alpine pasture management. Studying modes of adaptation to events is part of a long-term approach to address the complex dynamics of climate change. We show how this approach, the information collection protocols and the data capitalization methods implemented aim to meet the requirements stemming from this current issue: involvement of all actors (livestock farmers and herdsmen, farming technicians, pastoral systems specialists, researchers and managers of protected areas), collective learning based on shared observations, and integration of an alpine pasture farms system. The programmeworks as a tool providing help with analysis and decision-making in relation to processes involving the climate, the environment, pastoral practices and livestock farming systems. The work collectives implementing it are also paving the way for new forms of governance in terms of the relations between pastoralism and local area stakeholders. © Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine. Source


Bonet R.,Parc National des Ecrins | Arnaud F.,University of Savoy | Bodin X.,University of Savoy | Bouche M.,Parc National des Ecrins | And 16 more authors.
Eco.mont | Year: 2016

In accordance with their mission and as part of their long-term observation work, Ecrins National Park (NP) is making important contributions to the study and monitoring of phenomena related to climate change. Its work takes information collected at different meteorological stations and supplements it with analyses of vegetation changes through aerial and satellite images, measuring and monitoring of glaciers, and interdisciplinary programmes focused on high-altitude lakes, mountain pastures and indicator species. Through its mission and long-term observations, Ecrins NP (http://www.ecrinsparcnational. fr/) contributes to the environmental surveillance of many ecosystems. Working within many different networks and in partnership with various research teams, the park participates in the development of a better understanding of the important changes taking place. Source


Birck C.,Aix - Marseille University | Epaillard I.,Aix - Marseille University | Leccia M.F.,Aix - Marseille University | Crassous C.,Aix - Marseille University | And 24 more authors.
Eco.mont | Year: 2013

High-altitude lakes are vulnerable ecosystems that require protection and sustainability management, although their overall functioning is still poorly understood. In France protected area managers and scientists are cooperating to address this problem. Their results show the huge diversity of these altitude lakes and imply specificities in their functioning and in the way they respond to stressors. Multidisciplinary studies on these ecosystems, on their individual history and the stressors they face, need to be developed in a number of lakes, alongside long-term monitoring surveys. This is the objective of the Sentinel lakes network. Source


Boulangeat I.,CNRS Alpine Ecology Laboratory | Georges D.,CNRS Alpine Ecology Laboratory | Dentant C.,Parc National des Ecrins | Bonet R.,Parc National des Ecrins | And 2 more authors.
Ecography | Year: 2014

Vegetation is a key driver of ecosystem functioning (e.g. productivity and stability) and of the maintenance of biodiversity (e.g. creating habitats for other species groups). While vegetation sensitivity to climate change has been widely investigated, its spatio-temporally response to the dual effects of land management and climate change has been ignored at landscape scale. Here we use a dynamic vegetation model called FATE-HD, which describes the dominant vegetation dynamics and associated functional diversity, in order to anticipate vegetation response to climate and land-use changes in both short and long-term perspectives. Using three contrasted management scenarios for the Ecrins National Park (French Alps) developed in collaboration with the park managers, and one regional climate change scenario, we tracked the dynamics of vegetation structure (forest expansion) and functional diversity over 100 yr of climate change and a further 400 additional years of stabilization. As expected, we observed a slow upward shift in forest cover distribution, which appears to be severely impacted by pasture management (i.e. maintenance or abandonment). The time lag before observing changes in vegetation cover was the result of demographic and seed dispersal processes. However, plant diversity response to environmental changes was rapid. After land abandonment, local diversity increased and spatial turnover was reduced, whereas local diversity decreased following land use intensification. Interestingly, in the long term, as both climate and management scenarios interacted, the regional diversity declined. Our innovative spatio-temporally explicit framework demonstrates that the vegetation may have contrasting responses to changes in the short and the long term. Moreover, climate and land-abandonment interact extensively leading to a decrease in both regional diversity and turnover in the long term. Based on our simulations we therefore suggest a continuing moderate intensity pasturing to maintain high levels of plant diversity in this system. © 2014 The Authors. Source

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