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Oxford, United Kingdom

Downing T.E.,Oxford Center for Innovation
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change | Year: 2012

The shift from framing climate change adaptation as vulnerability-impacts to adaptation pathways is also a shift from a predict-and-provide approaches to understanding dynamic processes. Studies of the economics of adaptation relying only on the comparative statics of reference and climate impacts scenarios ignore the more challenging frontier of representing decision processes and uncertainty. The logic of the shift to dynamic-pathway approaches is widely accepted in principal. Effective analytical tools are only beginning to appear. Further case studies are required to explore the matrix of uncertainty in future climate conditions against the range of metrics for valuing impacts in decision processes. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Source


Mcleod E.,The Nature Conservancy | Szuster B.,University of Hawaii at Manoa | Tompkins E.L.,University of Southampton | Marshall N.,James Cook University | And 9 more authors.
Coastal Management | Year: 2015

Climate change threatens tropical coastal communities and ecosystems. Governments, resource managers, and communities recognize the value of assessing the social and ecological impacts of climate change, but there is little consensus on the most effective framework to support vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The framework presented in this research is based on a gap analysis developed from the recommendations of climate and adaptation experts. The article highlights social and ecological factors that affect vulnerability to climate change; adaptive capacity and adaptation options informing policy and conservation management decisions; and a methodology including criteria to assess current and future vulnerability to climate change. The framework is intended for conservation practitioners working in developing countries, small island nations, and traditional communities. It identifies core components that assess climate change impacts on coastal communities and environments at the local scale, and supports the identification of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Although the literature supporting vulnerability adaptation assessments is extensive, little emphasis has been placed on the systematic validation of these tools. To address this, we validate the framework using the Delphi technique, a group facilitation technique used to achieve convergence of expert opinion, and address gaps in previous vulnerability assessments. © 2015, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Source


Varela-Ortega C.,Technical University of Madrid | Blanco-Gutierrez I.,Technical University of Madrid | Esteve P.,Technical University of Madrid | Bharwani S.,Stockholm Environment Institute | And 2 more authors.
Regional Environmental Change | Year: 2016

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results. © 2014, The Author(s). Source


Esteve P.,Technical University of Madrid | Varela-Ortega C.,Technical University of Madrid | Blanco-Gutierrez I.,Technical University of Madrid | Downing T.E.,Oxford Center for Innovation
Ecological Economics | Year: 2015

Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results showthat climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policymaking. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation. © 2015 The Authors. Source

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