Karniouchina E.V.,Chapman University |
Karniouchina E.V.,One University Drive
Journal of Product Innovation Management | Year: 2011
Defining effective methods for determining consumer preferences for products prior to their launch has been a mainstay of marketing and management literature for decades. Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) is an emerging method in new product forecasting that has been shown to produce reliable new product sales estimates by combining individual preferences via market-based aggregation mechanisms. Due to the emerging popularity of VSMs among practitioners, this cross-disciplinary study (combining insights from finance, marketing, and new product development fields) uses the example of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) and examines its predictive validity and potential systematic biases in its predictions to help think about the general applicability of these forecasting methods to other product areas, or how forecasts in other product areas may need to be modified to be more precise. This study finds evidence of overestimating the sales potential associated with products on the low end of the revenue expectation spectrum, which could be linked to the fact that in artificial exchanges, where no money changes hands, people tend to gamble hoping to make excessive returns. However, this explanation is weakened by the introduction of additional variables linked to the negative influence of information search costs (harder to utilize information is not fully reflected in the stock prices) and over-utilization of highly visible/conspicuous information. Practical implications for managers considering using VSMs for new product forecasting in creative gestalt-like settings are discussed. © 2011 Product Development & Management Association.
Mccormick T.B.,One University Drive |
Buckley L.M.,One University Drive |
Navas G.,Moss Landing Marine Laboratories |
Barber G.,One University Drive |
And 6 more authors.
Journal of Shellfish Research | Year: 2012
Settling cues in the form of coralline algae were presented to groups of hatchery-reared red abalone (Haliotis rufescens, Swainson 1822) larvae daily from day 4 to day 32 posthatch (temperature, 14°C). Survival of postlarval abalone after settlement was monitored for 30 days to quantify the effect of delayed metamorphosis on the subsequent survival of benthic juvenile abalone. After exposure to live coralline algae, an average of 85% of the larvae metamorphosed and settled the following day. The number of settled postlarvae increased gradually the longer the settling cue was withheld. Postsettlement juveniles were raised in individual containers on mixed diatoms for up to 34 days. Red abalone larvae remained competent to settle 32 days after fertilization. Larvae that metamorphosed from day 4 through day 19 had longer survival during the next 30 days (average, 19%) than those presented with a settling cue from day 20 to day 32 (average, 8%). Statistical analysis using a threshold cut point indicated that the 20-day threshold marked a significant change in subsequent postlarval survival. A receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that the 20-day cut point predicted high or low future survival of postmetamorphic abalone 73.4% of the time. Larvae that swam for less than 20 days had postmetamorphic survival of 8 days or more, whereas survival was 7 days or less for postmetamorphic abalone that had swam previously for 20-32 days. A larval competency period of 20 days is significantly longer than the 5-7-day larval stage often used to estimate transport times for this species. Copyright © 2013 BioOne.