Agency: GTR | Branch: ESRC | Program: | Phase: Research Grant | Award Amount: 491.69K | Year: 2012
The ultimate goal of this project is to create Samples of Anonymised Records (SARs) from British censuses 1961 to 1981 using record-level data recovered from archive tapes by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The project will fall into two phases.
In Phase 1 record-level data will be recovered from archival data held by the relevant data controllers. This will involve extracting, transforming and re-loading all existing data files and applying variable and value labels. These data will be delivered to the data controllers for permanent preservation.
Phase 2 will involve the specification and creation of SARs from these complete datasets. The end result will be a series of datasets which will be harmonised with the existing SARs for 1991 and 2001 available from the UK Data Service. The final data products are expected to be released in the summer of 2014.
Gao W.,King's College London |
Ho Y.K.,King's College London |
Verne J.,South West Public Health Observatory |
Glickman M.,Office for National Statistics - ONS |
Higginson I.J.,King's College London
PLoS Medicine | Year: 2013
Background: Most patients with cancer prefer to die at home or in a hospice, but hospitals remain the most common place of death (PoD).This study aims to explore the changing time trends of PoD and the associated factors, which are essential for end-of-life care improvement. Methods and Findings: The study analysed all cancer deaths in England collected by the Office for National Statistics during 1993-2010 (n = 2,281,223). Time trends of age- and gender-standardised proportion of deaths in individual PoDs were evaluated using weighted piecewise linear regression. Variables associated with PoD (home or hospice versus hospital) were determined using proportion ratio (PR) derived from the log-binomial regression, adjusting for clustering effects. Hospital remained the most common PoD throughout the study period (48.0%; 95% CI 47.9%-48.0%), followed by home (24.5%; 95% CI 24.4%-24.5%), and hospice (16.4%; 95% CI 16.3%-16.4%). Home and hospice deaths increased since 2005 (0.87%; 95% CI 0.74%-0.99%/year, 0.24%; 95% CI 0.17%-0.32%/year, respectively, p<0.001), while hospital deaths declined (-1.20%; 95% CI -1.41 to -0.99/year, p<0.001). Patients who died from haematological cancer (PRs 0.46-0.52), who were single, widowed, or divorced (PRs 0.75-0.88), and aged over 75 (PRs 0.81-0.84 for 75-84; 0.66-0.72 for 85+) were less likely to die in home or hospice (p<0.001; reference groups: colorectal cancer, married, age 25-54). There was little improvement in patients with lung cancer of dying in home or hospice (PRs 0.87-0.88). Marital status became the second most important factor associated with PoD, after cancer type. Patients from less deprived areas (higher quintile of the deprivation index) were more likely to die at home or in a hospice than those from more deprived areas (lower quintile of the deprivation index; PRs 1.02-1.12). The analysis is limited by a lack of data on individual patients' preferences for PoD or a clinical indication of the most appropriate PoD. Conclusions: More efforts are needed to reduce hospital deaths. Health care facilities should be improved and enhanced to support the increased home and hospice deaths. People who are single, widowed, or divorced should be a focus for end-of-life care improvement, along with known at risk groups such as haematological cancer, lung cancer, older age, and deprivation. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. © 2013 Gao et al.
Grice J.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Oxford Review of Economic Policy | Year: 2016
This article discusses how more systematic information can be compiled about the state of the UK infrastructure. It stresses the importance of considering the stock and not just the flow of new infrastructure investment. It draws attention to the information about the balance sheet that is contained for all sectors of the economy in the National Accounts, as part of their integrated stock-flow structure. While there appears to be no internationally agreed convention about the definition of infrastructure, the National Accounts information can be used to construct time series estimates for the infrastructure on a common sense view of its coverage. In constant price terms, the ratio of the infrastructure stock to gross value added appears to have risen since the mid-1990s, back towards the levels of the 1970s. But that is not true in current price terms, where the ratio remains well below the levels of the 1970s. The explanation seems to be that a relative price effect has occurred: infrastructure has become cheaper in relative terms but that has not resulted in increased infrastructure intensity. The article notes other information about the state of the UK infrastructure. As they mature, the Whole of Government Accounts should be a rich source of information. So, too, might the UK Capital Services index. Ultimately, all this information could feed into a more systematic growth accounting framework for the UK. © Crown copyright 2016.
Leon D.A.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine |
Moser K.A.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health | Year: 2012
Background The mean birth weight of offspring of Bangladeshi, Indian and Pakistani women tends to be among the lowest of any ethnic groups regardless of country of residence. However, it is unclear whether the mean birth weight of South Asian offspring born in England and Wales is higher among those whose mothers were themselves born in England and Wales compared to those whose mothers were born in the Indian sub-continent. Methods We used cross-sectional data from a unique linkage of routine records for the whole of England and Wales (2005-2006, n=861 654) to estimate mean birth weights of the live singleton offspring of Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani or White British ethnicity according to whether maternal place of birth was England and Wales or the Indian sub-continent. Results Offspring of women born in the Indian subcontinent were slightly heavier at birth than offspring of South Asian women born in England and Wales even after adjustment for gestational age, maternal age and parity (Bangladeshi 28 g, 95% CI 10 to 46; Indian 31 g, 95% CI 20 to 42; Pakistani 21 g, 95% CI 12 to 29). Conclusions There is no indication that the mean birth weight of South Asian offspring of women born in England and Wales is higher than the mean birth weight of those whose mothers were born in the Indian subcontinent. This suggests a shared physiological tendency for down-regulation of fetal growth transmissible across generations. Within the UK, there is unlikely to be any appreciable increase in mean birth weight of South Asian babies over the next few decades.
Smith M.P.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Health statistics quarterly / Office for National Statistics | Year: 2010
The reduction of health inequalities is a long-standing public health priority. Accurate and timely measurement of the magnitude of health inequalities over time is complex, often relying on data available from a decennial census to conduct detailed analyses of social and geographical inequalities. While inequalities in mortality rates and life expectancy are well-established, the scale of inequality in health expectancies has been reported to be even greater. This study examines changes in inequality in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) over time between Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in England, grouped into quintiles of an area-based measure of relative deprivation. Life expectancy (LE) and DFLE for males and females at birth and at age 65 were estimated using a combination of survey, mortality and population data; survey data provided an estimate of the prevalence of limiting long-standing illness or disability (LLSI) used in the DFLE metric. An estimate of the inequality in DFLE between area-based quintiles of relative deprivation (using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007) in the periods 2001-04 and 2005-08 enabled the measurement of change in equality over time between advantaged and disadvantaged areas. The prevalence of LLSI among males and females rose incrementally with increasing levels of deprivation in both periods. Males and females in the most deprived areas were more than 1.5 times more likely to report LLSI compared to those in the least deprived areas. There were also large inequalities in LE and DFLE in a similar pattern to LLSI. The extent of inequality in DFLE between the most and least deprived quintiles was approximately twice that of LE. Although LE and DFLE generally increased over time, this improvement varied across quintiles, causing the gap between the most and least deprived quintiles to increase. In comparison with more advantaged areas, people experiencing the greatest deprivation spent the greatest proportion of their lives with a limiting illness or disability, and this proportion increased over time. Males and females at birth and at age 65 in the less deprived areas could expect longer, healthier lives than their counterparts in more deprived areas in both 2001-04 and 2005-08. This analysis suggests that the inequality in DFLE between deprived and affluent area clusters has increased during the first decade of the 21st century.
Siegler V.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Health statistics quarterly / Office for National Statistics | Year: 2011
This article is the first analysis of the social inequalities in adult alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales at the start of the 21st century, using the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC). It presents the socio-economic patterns of alcohol-related mortality by gender, age and region, for England and Wales as a whole, Wales and the regions of England. Death registrations provided the number of deaths for working age adults, using the National Statistics definition of alcohol-related mortality. Population estimates for England and Wales in 2001-03 were used to estimate alcohol-related mortality rates by sex, five-year age group, NS-SEC and region. Inequalities were measured using ratios of alcohol-related mortality rates between the least and most advantaged classes. There were substantial socio-economic variations in adult alcohol-related mortality, with the inequalities being greater for women than for men. The mortality rate of men in the Routine class was 3.5 times those of men in Higher and Managerial occupations, while for women the corresponding figure was 5.7 times. Greater socio-economic inequalities in mortality were observed for men aged 25-49 than for men aged 50-64; however the highest mortality rate of men occurred for Routine workers aged 50-54. Women in the Routine class experienced mortality rates markedly higher than other classes. The highest mortality rate of women also occurred for Routine workers, but at a younger age than for men (45-49). Within England, the North-West showed the largest inequalities, with particularly high rates in the Routine class for both sexes. In general, there was no association between levels of mortality and socio-economic gradients in mortality across the English regions and Wales. Rates of alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales increased significantly for people between the early 1990s and early 21st century, and were substantially greater for those in more disadvantaged socio-economic classes. There is also evidence that these socio-economic differences were greater at younger ages, especially for men at ages 25-49.
Hill C.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Health statistics quarterly / Office for National Statistics | Year: 2011
Annually, there are around 30,000 coroner's inquests held in England and Wales that conclude with a verdict. 'Short form' verdicts such as accident or misadventure; natural causes; suicide; and homicide make up the majority of all verdict conclusions. 'Narrative' verdicts can be used by a coroner or jury, instead of a short form verdict, to express their conclusions as to the cause of death following an inquest. Since 2001 narrative verdicts have been more widely used, with over 3,000 narrative verdicts returned in 2009. In some cases, it can be difficult to code the underlying cause of death from the information provided in the narrative. For some time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other organisations have been concerned about the impact of narrative verdicts on the quality of the statistics on cause of death. Our research investigated the impact of narrative verdicts on trends for deaths attributed to injury and poisoning in England and Wales. The research considered narrative verdicts received by ONS between 2001 and 2009. All available information provided by the coroner from the narrative verdict, together with the underlying cause of death, was used in the analysis. All causes of death where a narrative verdict was returned were investigated. More in-depth analysis of accidental deaths was undertaken, as classification of these deaths by intent is more difficult when the information from the coroner is imprecise. A sensitivity analysis of suicide rates (intentional self-harm and event of undetermined intent) was carried out. This involved using two different scenarios of reclassifying selected proportions of accidental hanging and poisoning deaths, where a narrative verdict was returned, as intentional self-harm. An exercise to measure the consistency of coding cause of death from narrative verdicts was also undertaken. The increasing proportion of narrative verdicts involving injury and poisoning has not significantly affected published mortality rates for suicide (intentional self-harm and injury or poisoning of undetermined intent). However, if the rise in narrative verdicts continues at the same rate, the accurate reporting of injury and poisoning deaths, including suicides, is likely to be affected. The exercise to establish the consistency of coding the cause of death by ONS cause coders showed that the current coding rules were being applied uniformly. The increase in the use of narrative verdicts by coroners has not had a statistically significant impact on published suicide rates in England and Wales and so no revision to these rates is needed. A review of current coding practices and the handling of narrative verdicts will be undertaken by ONS with particular reference to deaths from intentional self-harm. A recommendation has been made to coroners to consider ways of recording narrative verdicts to allow more accurate coding of cause of death. This will ensure that mortality statistics are maintained to the highest standards.List of Tables, 83.
Agency: GTR | Branch: ESRC | Program: | Phase: Training Grant | Award Amount: 4.95K | Year: 2011
Doctoral Training Partnerships: a range of postgraduate training is funded by the Research Councils. For information on current funding routes, see the common terminology at www.rcuk.ac.uk/StudentshipTerminology. Training grants may be to one organisation or to a consortia of research organisations. This portal will show the lead organisation only.
Agency: GTR | Branch: ESRC | Program: | Phase: Research Grant | Award Amount: 148.16K | Year: 2015
Summary This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdoms population at national and subnational levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UKs population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011. We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series. Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential). The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic models to provide us with a more reliable picture of how the UK population is going to change in ethnic composition.
Brown G.,Office for National Statistics - ONS
Health statistics quarterly / Office for National Statistics | Year: 2010
This article reports research carried out to inform possible methods of describing seasonal mortality in relation to extremes of temperature. In particular, since different methods are currently used to assess excess winter mortality and heatwave related mortality, we aimed to find out whether a single method could be used to measure all seasonal mortality in relation to temperature. In order to do this the project investigated whether there are temperatures above or below which excess deaths occur, and explored whether it is possible to predict reliably how many deaths would occur at extreme temperatures. Daily and monthly Central England Temperatures for 1998 to 2007 were supplied by the Met Office Hadley Centre and daily death occurrence data between 1993 and 2007 was extracted from the death registrations database held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Least squares regression, based on the previous five years of data, was used to predict expected mortality, and excess mortality was calculated as the difference between the expected mortality and the observed mortality on any given day. Statistically significant increases in both daily deaths and temperatures were investigated with the probability of excess mortality assessed on those days. Two regression models were calculated, one for deaths and temperature and one for excess deaths and temperature. Five days with statistically significant excess mortality were identified over the period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2007, the largest being on 31 December 1999. Three of the five days identified coincided with extremely hot weather occurring in August 2003 and July 2006. However, more extreme temperatures were seen on some days with no excess mortality, so predicting mortality using extreme temperatures alone would cause frequent false positive results. Regression models based on daily death and temperature explained only 8 per cent of the variance in summer mortality and 7 per cent of the variance in winter mortality. The models based on excess deaths and temperature explained 20 per cent of the variance in excess mortality in summer, but only 1 per cent of the variance in excess mortality in winter. There is a weak but significant relationship between temperature and mortality in both the summer and winter months. While in winter mortality does increase as it gets colder, winter mortality is variable and high mortality can occur on relatively mild days. Similarly, in the summer high temperatures are often associated with relatively increased mortality, but a single hot day does not always lead to excess deaths. Daily mortality cannot be predicted from temperature alone: the prevalence of influenza in winter and factors such as air pollution in summer should also be considered.