Oslo, Norway

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute , also known as MET Norway, is Norway's national institute which provides weather forecasts.Its three main offices are located in Oslo, Bergen and Tromsø. MET Norway has around 500 employees and some 650 part-time observers around the country. It also operated the last remaining weather ship in the world, MS Polarfront, stationed in the North Atlantic, until it was discontinued due to budgetary issues on 1 January 2010 and replaced with satellite and buoy data.The institute was founded in 1866 with the help of Norwegian astronomer and meteorologist Henrik Mohn who served as its director until 1913. He is credited with founding meteorological research in Norway.The institute represents Norway in international organizations like the World Meteorological Organization , the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts , and EUMETSAT. The Institute is also partner to a number of international research and monitoring projects including EMEP, MyOcean, MyWave and the North West Shelf Operational Oceanographic System . Wikipedia.


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Agency: GTR | Branch: NERC | Program: | Phase: Research Grant | Award Amount: 530.51K | Year: 2014

Air pollution is the environmental factor with the greatest impact on human health in Europe. Despite substantial emission controls, the complexities of the processes linking emissions and air quality, means that substantial proportions - 80% and 97%, respectively, of the population in Europe lives in cities with levels of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) exceeding EU limit and target values. The two pollutants are estimated to contribute 350,000 and 200,000 premature deaths across Europe. NERCs strategy document states: In the UK, air pollution costs the economy £15 billion every year in damage to human health, not including the cost of damage to our environment and crops. Understanding the key processes driving air quality across the relevant spatial scales, especially during pollution exceedances and episodes, is essential to provide effective prediction for both policymakers and the public. It is particularly important for policy regulators to understand the drivers of local air quality that can be regulated by national policies versus the contribution from regional pollution transported from mainland Europe or elsewhere. Urban areas are of particular concern since as well as being receptors of regional pollution, they have high local emissions from heating and road transport associated with their high population densities. They are also subject to an urban heat island effect which can impact on the chemistry of air pollution. Our overall aim is to use state-of-the-art modelling and measurements to quantify and reduce uncertainties in the key regional and local processes that control poor air quality in urban areas, both for present-day and in the future. This proposal will develop a novel model framework using a nested suite of models to bridge scales from regional to urban for simulating atmospheric composition and weather including urban heat island effects across the UK and over London. The proposal will further exploit state-of-the-art NERC measuements from recent ClearfLo and REPARTEE field campaigns in London bringing together modelling and measurements experts to determine controlling factors of high O3 and PM events. A detailed box model of the chemical environment based on these field measurements will be constructed, and used to calculate in situ chemical production of O3 during both average and episodic conditions. The coupled regional to urban model will be evaluated against these box model and field campaign results as well as extensive network measurements. Multiple approaches will be used to probe the regional and local contributions to O3 during high O3 events. The key processes driving PM episodes will also be determined using speciated field measurements and coupled model results. The role of nitrous acid on O3 and PM oxidation chemistry in urban areas is a key uncertainty that will be quantified. Air pollution events in the UK are usually associated with stagnation events, which in summer may be coincident with heatwaves. During heatwaves weather conditions may alter emission and deposition processes. The relative importance of these processes, such as reduced O3 deposition, that lead to elevated pollution levels will be established. To investigate the impact of future emissions and climate change on urban air quality, high-resolution climate-chemistry simulations that consistently account for changes in chemistry and transport from the regional to city scale will be performed and future impacts on air quality extremes evaluated. Proof of concept studies with the coupled model framework and with high-resolution climate projections demonstrate the viability of the intended research. This proposal comprises a strong collaboration between modelling and measurement scientists spanning the disciplines of fundamental chemistry, atmospheric composition, and climate change, to advance our understanding of the processes driving regional to urban-scale air quality now and in the future.


News Article | March 14, 2016
Site: news.yahoo.com

Smoke billows from chimneys at a chemical factory in Tianjin Municipality December 23, 2008. REUTERS/Stringer/Files More OSLO (Reuters) - A record surge in temperatures in 2016, linked to global warming and an El Nino weather event in the Pacific, is adding urgency to a deal by 195 governments in December to curb greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change, scientists said on Monday. Average global temperatures last month were 1.35 degree Celsius (2.4 Fahrenheit) above normal for February, the biggest temperature excess recorded for any month against a baseline of 1951-80, according to NASA data released at the weekend. The previous record was set in January, stoked by factors including a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the strong El Nino event, which releases heat from the Pacific. "I think even the hard-core climate people are looking at this and saying: 'What on Earth'?" David Carlson, director of the World Climate Research Programme at the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization, said of the leap in temperatures. "It's startling," he told Reuters. "It's definitely a changed planet ... It makes us nervous about the long-term impact." Scientists say global warming is causing more powerful downpours, droughts and rising sea levels. Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the long-term trend of warming "makes the implementation of the Paris agreement urgent." He noted that 15 of the 16 warmest years since records began were in the 21st century. In December 2015, 195 nations agreed in Paris to a climate deal with a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to a net zero by 2100, shifting from fossil fuels in favour of greener energies such as solar and wind power. They set a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, while "pursuing efforts" for a 1.5C (2.7F) limit. Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said El Nino seemed less to blame for the current surge than the last big El Nino in 1998. "Based on 1998, March and probably April will also be very warm, before the El Nino influence wanes," he told Reuters. Ice in the Arctic Ocean was at the lowest recorded for February, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. At Longyearbyen, on a Norwegian Arctic island, temperatures hit a peak of 6.6C (44F) on Jan. 2, against an icy average for a normal January of -15.3C (4.5F), data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute showed. Reidun Skaland, a climate expert at the Institute, said there were always big swings in Arctic weather, "but it is a warning message when you see such high temperatures. There's an increasing trend."


News Article | March 14, 2016
Site: news.yahoo.com

The carcass of a cow lies in a field in Disaneng village outside Mafikeng, South Africa, January 28, 2016. REUTERS/Sydney Seshibedi More OSLO (Reuters) - A record surge in temperatures in 2016, linked to global warming and an El Nino weather event in the Pacific, is adding urgency to a deal by 195 governments in December to curb greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change, scientists said on Monday. Average global temperatures last month were 1.35 degree Celsius (2.4 Fahrenheit) above normal for February, the biggest temperature excess recorded for any month against a baseline of 1951-80, according to NASA data released at the weekend. The previous record was set in January, stoked by factors including a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the strong El Nino event, which releases heat from the Pacific. "I think even the hard-core climate people are looking at this and saying: 'What on Earth'?" David Carlson, director of the World Climate Research Programme at the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization, said of the leap in temperatures. "It's startling," he told Reuters. "It's definitely a changed planet ... It makes us nervous about the long-term impact." Scientists say global warming is causing more powerful downpours, droughts and rising sea levels. Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the long-term trend of warming "makes the implementation of the Paris agreement urgent." He noted that 15 of the 16 warmest years since records began were in the 21st century. In December 2015, 195 nations agreed in Paris to a climate deal with a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to a net zero by 2100, shifting from fossil fuels in favor of greener energies such as solar and wind power. They set a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, while "pursuing efforts" for a 1.5C (2.7F) limit. Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said El Nino seemed less to blame for the current surge than the last big El Nino in 1998. "Based on 1998, March and probably April will also be very warm, before the El Nino influence wanes," he told Reuters. Ice in the Arctic Ocean was at the lowest recorded for February, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. At Longyearbyen, on a Norwegian Arctic island, temperatures hit a peak of 6.6C (44F) on Jan. 2, against an icy average for a normal January of -15.3C (4.5F), data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute showed. Reidun Skaland, a climate expert at the Institute, said there were always big swings in Arctic weather, "but it is a warning message when you see such high temperatures. There's an increasing trend."


News Article | March 14, 2016
Site: www.reuters.com

The carcass of a cow lies in a field in Disaneng village outside Mafikeng, South Africa, January 28, 2016. Average global temperatures last month were 1.35 degree Celsius (2.4 Fahrenheit) above normal for February, the biggest temperature excess recorded for any month against a baseline of 1951-80, according to NASA data released at the weekend. The previous record was set in January, stoked by factors including a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the strong El Nino event, which releases heat from the Pacific. "I think even the hard-core climate people are looking at this and saying: 'What on Earth'?" David Carlson, director of the World Climate Research Programme at the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization, said of the leap in temperatures. "It's startling," he told Reuters. "It's definitely a changed planet ... It makes us nervous about the long-term impact." Scientists say global warming is causing more powerful downpours, droughts and rising sea levels. Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the long-term trend of warming "makes the implementation of the Paris agreement urgent." He noted that 15 of the 16 warmest years since records began were in the 21st century. In December 2015, 195 nations agreed in Paris to a climate deal with a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to a net zero by 2100, shifting from fossil fuels in favor of greener energies such as solar and wind power. They set a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, while "pursuing efforts" for a 1.5C (2.7F) limit. Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said El Nino seemed less to blame for the current surge than the last big El Nino in 1998. "Based on 1998, March and probably April will also be very warm, before the El Nino influence wanes," he told Reuters. Ice in the Arctic Ocean was at the lowest recorded for February, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. At Longyearbyen, on a Norwegian Arctic island, temperatures hit a peak of 6.6C (44F) on Jan. 2, against an icy average for a normal January of -15.3C (4.5F), data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute showed. Reidun Skaland, a climate expert at the Institute, said there were always big swings in Arctic weather, "but it is a warning message when you see such high temperatures. There's an increasing trend."


News Article | August 6, 2013
Site: www.theguardian.com

A starved polar bear found found dead in Svalbard as "little more than skin and bones" perished due to a lack of sea ice on which to hunt seals, according to a renowned polar bear expert. Climate change has reduced sea ice in the Arctic to record lows in the last year and Dr Ian Stirling, who has studied the bears for almost 40 years and examined the animal, said the lack of ice forced the bear into ranging far and wide in an ultimately unsuccessful search for food. "From his lying position in death the bear appears to simply have starved and died where he dropped," Stirling said. "He had no external suggestion of any remaining fat, having been reduced to little more than skin and bone." The bear had been examined by scientists from the Norwegian Polar Institute in April in the southern part of Svalbard, an Arctic island archipelago, and appeared healthy. The same bear had been captured in the same area in previous years, suggesting that the discovery of its body, 250km away in northern Svalbard in July, represented an unusual movement away from its normal range. The bear probably followed the fjords inland as it trekked north, meaning it may have walked double or treble that distance. Polar bears feed almost exclusively on seals and need sea ice to capture their prey. But 2012 saw the lowest level of sea ice in the Arctic on record. Prond Robertson, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, said: "The sea ice break up around Svalbard in 2013 was both fast and very early." He said recent years had been poor for ice around the islands: "Warm water entered the western fjords in 2005-06 and since then has not shifted." Stirling, now at Polar Bears International and previously at the University of Alberta and the Canadian Wildlife Service, said: "Most of the fjords and inter-island channels in Svalbard did not freeze normally last winter and so many potential areas known to that bear for hunting seals in spring do not appear to have been as productive as in a normal winter. As a result the bear likely went looking for food in another area but appears to have been unsuccessful." Research published in May showed that loss of sea ice was harming the health, breeding success and population size of the polar bears of Hudson Bay, Canada, as they spent longer on land waiting for the sea to refreeze. Other work has shown polar bear weights are declining. In February a panel of polar bear experts published a paper stating that rapid ice loss meant options such the feeding of starving bears by humans needed to be considered to protect the 20,000-25,000 animals thought to remain. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the world's largest professional conservation network, states that of the 19 populations of polar bear around the Arctic, data is available for 12. Of those, eight are declining, three are stable and one is increasing. The IUCN predicts that increasing ice loss will mean between one-third and a half of polar bears will be lost in the next three generations, about 45 years. But the US and Russian governments said in March that faster-than-expected ice losses could mean two-thirds are lost. Attributing a single incident to climate change can be controversial, but Douglas Richardson, head of living collections at the Highland Wildlife Park near Kingussie, said: "It's not just one bear though. There are an increasing number of bears in this condition: they are just not putting down enough fat to survive their summer fast. This particular polar bear is the latest bit of evidence of the impact of climate change." Ice loss due to climate change is "absolutely, categorically and without question" the cause of falling polar bear populations, said Richardson, who cares for the UK's only publicly kept polar bears. He said 16 years was not particularly old for a wild male polar bear, which usually live into their early 20s. "There may have been some underlying disease, but I would be surprised if this was anything other than starvation," he said. "Once polar bears reach adulthood they are normally nigh on indestructible, they are hard as nails." Jeff Flocken, at the International Fund for Animal Welfare, said: "While it is difficult to ascribe a single death or act to climate change it couldn't be clearer that drastic and long-term changes in their Arctic habitat threaten the survival of the polar bear. The threat of habitat loss from climate change, exacerbated by unsustainable killing for commercial trade in Canada, could lead to the demise of one of the world's most iconic animals, and this would be a true tragedy."


The damage wrought by climate change in the frozen Arctic region has been highlighted by the surge in average annual temperatures at Svalbard Archipelago beyond the freezing point for the first time in history. Scientist Ketil Isaksen of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute noted that the average temperature in Longyearbyen, the main settlement at Svalbard, will be zero Celsius in 2016. Calling Svalbard a prototype of what is happening in the Arctic, the scientist said the past six years has been the warmest. The escalation in Svalbard's average temperature from minus 6.7 C (20 F) to the freezing point is really worrisome. Even in the warmest 2006, the average temperature was hovering at minus 1.8 C (29 F). "This is a little bit shocking," Isaksen said, and added that five or 10 years ago such numbers for 2016 would have been unimaginable. The side effects of rising temperatures in the Arctic are more manifest in the rising loss of permafrost and sea ice. Buildup of sea ice is happening at a slower pace than normal despite the approaching winter. The ice cover of Arctic has a mix of both perennial as well as seasonal ice. Around 95 percent of older ice cover at Arctic since 1984 has vanished as disclosed in a study by NASA. In Arctic, ice grows and shrinks throughout the year with the minimum ice in September. The study by the American space agency revealed that the area under Arctic sea ice has been declining. For example, ice cover that is at least four years old has declined from 1,860,000 square kilometers in September 1984 to 110,000 square kilometers in September 2016. September is a benchmark in sea ice levels at Arctic, as ice volumes reach the lowest in that month. A comparison of the September decline of ice for three decades shows a fall of 13.3 percent per decade in the period from 1981 to 2010. The damage from the loss of sea ice has long-term consequences. When sea ice is absent, more warming happens as sea ice used to be a buffer that reflects and reverts sunlight back into space preventing further warming. The loss of sea ice helps darker parts of the sea to absorb the radiation and makes the waters warmer. According to the scientist, this year, huge areas in the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea near Svalbard are bereft of ice when compared with ice-covered times of the past. Meanwhile, the Stockholm Environment Institute called the decline in sea ice cover and slimming of the Greenland ice sheet as "regime shifts" in the Arctic as a fallout of the climate change. The concern is doubling as studies have predicted that global temperatures are nearing a new heat record with the El Nino adding to the warming trend. © 2017 Tech Times, All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.


Benestad R.E.,Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Journal of Climate | Year: 2011

A new set of empirical-statistical downscaled seasonal mean temperature scenarios is presented for locations spread across all continents. These results are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B story line, and arguably represent the largest downscaled multimodel ensemble to date in terms of worldwide distribution, length of time interval, and the number of global climate model simulations. The ensemble size of;50 members enables a crude uncertainty analysis for simulated future local temperature, and maps have been constructed for Europe, Africa, and the northwestern part of Russia and Scandinavia of the ensemble mean and 95th percentile for seasonal mean temperatures projected for 2100, as well as simulated probabilities for low or high temperatures. The results are stored as matrices of coefficients describing best-fit fifth-order polynomials, used to approximate the long-term trends in the temperature. These results suggest that the 95th percentile of the summer temperature is expected to increase 38-58C by 2100 over most of Europe, and that there will be reduced probabilities of winter temperature lower than 08C for all European locations, with the greatest reduction of;60% in areas where the winter temperature presently is around freezing point. A similar analysis for Africa suggests that the June-August mean temperatures may exceed 358C in isolated regions by 2100. For the northwestern part of Russia and Scandinavia, the analysis yields a 4.58-7.58C increase for the ensemble mean December-February temperature, with the most pronounced warming in the northeast, north, and over Finnmark County in Norway. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.


Theoretical tracer diffusivities given by linear Eady theory that accounts for non-zero bottom slopes are compared with diffusivities diagnosed from primitive equation simulations of thermally forced flows over an idealized continental slope. The behavior is discussed in terms of a bottom slope parameter δ̄, the ratio of the bottom slope to an expression roughly representing the depth-averaged isopycnal slope. The theoretical diffusivities, scaled by the total thermal wind shear and the first internal deformation radius, agree qualitatively with diagnosed diffusivities for δ̄≲0, the parameter regime appropriate for buoyant boundary currents flowing over continental slopes. But whereas Eady theory would suggest maximum diffusivities for moderate positive slopes, δ̄≃0.5, the diagnosed diffusivities are highest for δ̄=0, i.e. for flat bottoms. Finally, whereas Eady diffusivities should drop to zero for δ̄≳1, i.e. when the bottom becomes steeper than the mean isopycnal slope, the diagnosed diffusivities do not. Similarities and differences are discussed in terms of more general linear stability theory applied to the background density profile over the central slope region. It is found that interior potential vorticity gradients, neglected by Eady theory, both cause significant modification to the Eady mode and also enable non-Eady instabilities that are responsible for the non-zero diffusivities for δ̄≳1. Furthermore, estimates of kinetic energy spectral fluxes suggest that an inverse kinetic energy cascade is present, and it is speculated that this is responsible for the diagnosed maximum diffusivity for flat bottoms. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.


Benestad R.E.,Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | Year: 2010

A new method for predicting the upper tail of the precipitation distribution, based on empirical-statistical downscaling, is explored. The proposed downscaling method involves a re-calibration of the results from an analog model to ensure that the results have a realistic statistical distribution. A comparison between new results and those from a traditional analog model suggests that the new method predicts higher probabilities for heavy precipitation events in the future, except for the most extreme percentiles for which sampling fluctuations give rise to high uncertainties. The proposed method is applied to the 24-h precipitation from Oslo, Norway, and validated through a comparison between modelled and observed percentiles. It is shown that the method yields a good approximate description of both the statistical distribution of the wet-day precipitation amount and the chronology of precipitation events. An additional analysis is carried out comparing the use of extended empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) as input, instead of ordinary EOFs. The results were, in general, similar; however, extended EOFs give greater persistence for 1-day lags. Predictions of the probability distribution function for the Oslo precipitation indicate that future precipitation amounts associated with the upper percentiles increase faster than for the lower percentiles. Substantial random statistical fluctuations in the few observations that make up the extreme upper tail implies that modelling of these is extremely difficult, however. An extrapolation scheme is proposed for describing the trends associated with the most extreme percentiles, assuming an upper physical bound where the trend is defined as zero, a gradual variation in the trend magnitude and a function with a simple shape. © The Author(s) 2009.


Benestad R.E.,Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2013

Attributing changes in extreme daily precipitation to global warming is difficult, even when based on global climate model simulations or statistical trend analyses. The question about trends in extreme precipitation and their causes has been elusive because of climate models' limited precision and the fact that extremes are both rare and occur at irregular intervals. Here a newly discovered empirical relationship between the wet-day mean and percentiles in 24 h precipitation amounts was used to show that trends in the wet-day 95th percentiles worldwide have been influenced by the global mean temperature, consistent with an accelerated hydrological cycle caused by a global warming. A multiple regression analysis was used as a basis for an attribution analysis by matching temporal variability in precipitation statistics with the global mean temperature. Key Points Intense 24-hr precipitation changes due to global warming New method for downscaling 24-hr precipitation statistics Independent confirmation of earlier studies ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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