The report, by a new organization of scientists and other experts called Climate Transparency, also said 15 of the G20 members has seen strong growth in renewable energy in recent years. "Climate action by the G20 has reached a turning point, with per capita emissions falling in 11 members, and renewable energy growing strongly," the group said in a statement. The G20 accounts for about three-quarters of world greenhouse gases. It said G20 members "must all urgently decarbonize their economies" to meet a U.N. goal to limit average temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels to limit heat waves, floods and rising seas. Leaders of the G20, led by the United States and China, will meet in Turkey on Nov. 15-16. And France will host talks among almost 200 nations from Nov. 30-Dec. 11 to agree a plan to limit climate change beyond 2030. The report said the trend in per capita carbon emissions over the five years to 2012 was down in Australia, the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, Britain, the European Union, South Africa, Italy, France and Mexico. Per capita emissions were still rising in the most populous G20 nations, China and India. They were also up in Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Russia, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia. Still, that marked a shift in long-term trends. Over the past quarter century, G20 carbon dioxide emissions had risen by almost 50 percent while per capita emissions had gained by about 18 percent, reflecting population growth, it said. Alvaro Umana, a former Costa Rican environment minister and co-chair of Climate Transparency, said greater G20 cooperation on climate change was a "diplomatic landmark" after years of divisions between developing and developed nations on the issue. "But G20 countries need to do more," he told Reuters. Overall G20 greenhouse gas emissions averaged 11 tonnes per person per year, against what the report said was a goal of one to three tonnes by 2050 to get warming under control. Promised actions "are still far way from what’s necessary for the 2C goal," said Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the groups behind the initiative.
The historic climate deal reached in Paris in December will only take effect after 55 nations responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions have ratified it (AFP Photo/Francois Guillot) Eight months after 195 nations concluded a hard-fought climate rescue pact, pressure is mounting to put its carbon-cutting promises into action as world leaders gather at G20 and UN meetings this month. The historic deal reached in Paris in December has been signed by 180 countries, but will only take effect after 55 nations responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions have ratified it -- making it binding. China -- responsible for around 25 percent of global carbon emissions -- ratified the pact Saturday, ahead of a meeting of G20 leaders where the United States is also expected to follow suit, considerably boosting efforts. Until Beijing joined the club, only 24 nations emitting just over one percent of the global total had officially acceded, according to the UN climate body overseeing the deal to cap global warming at two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels. "As 2016 heads into the record books as likely the hottest year ever recorded in history, it is a reminder that we have precious little time left to act to keep global temperature rise well below 2 C," Pascal Canfin of environmental group WWF said ahead of a two-day G20 summit opening in Hangzhou, eastern China, on Sunday. "We have the Paris Agreement to guide our way. Now we need governments to implement it," he said in a statement. China and the United States are jointly responsible for about 38 percent of emissions and had been widely expected to announce ratification at the Hangzhou gathering, which begins Sunday and brings together world leaders representing 85 percent of global GDP and two-thirds of its population. This will be followed on September 21 by UN chief Ban Ki-moon hosting a gathering on the sidelines of the General Assembly to beat the drum for ratification. The Climate Action Network (CAN), a global NGO grouping, urged G20 leaders in an open letter to ratify the pact "as soon as possible" as a restatement of political commitment. Early ratification would "also give a strong signal globally to business, cities and ordinary citizens to act ambitiously on climate change," it said. The pact sets out to curb warming by replacing atmosphere-polluting fossil fuels with renewable sources -- an ambitious goal towards which most UN nations have already pledged emissions curbs. This is meant to stave off the worst-case-scenario effects of violent droughts, storms and sea-level rise threatened by excessive planet warming. Only by ratification, however, does a country agree to be bound to an international agreement of this kind, explained the World Resources Institute (WRI), a climate think tank. Depending on constitutional provisions, many countries need to pass domestic legislation to do so. On Thursday, France's climate envoy Segolene Royal urged Paris-based ambassadors to agitate for speedy ratification by their respective nations. France hosted the UN huddle dubbed COP 21 (21st Conference of Parties) which yielded the climate pact. It will preside over the process until Morocco takes over as host of the next round of talks from November 7 to 18. Ratification before the Marrakech meet, said Royal, "will allow COP 22 to be a COP of action", focusing on practical solutions for reaching the set goals. With some 30 other nations having indicated their intent to formally adopt the pact, Royal may very well get her way. "Our assessment is that 55 parties are likely to ratify this year, representing 58 percent" of emissions," said the WRI's David Waskow. "It is a much more rapid process... than we have seen in the past for climate or any international regime of this type." By comparison, it took eight years for the Kyoto Protocol, which preceded the Paris agreement, to enter into force. The G20 meeting will be closely watched for progress. "The G20 countries generate about 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions," said Christoph Bals of the Germanwatch pressure group. "On that account they play a decisive role for the implementation of the ambitious Paris targets." More important even than ratification, observers agree, is cutting fossil fuel subsidies and other funding. "If G20 countries were to rid themselves of their reliance on coal, this would significantly impact their ability to increase their climate pledges and get their emissions trajectories on a below 2C pathway," said researcher Niklas Hohne of the NewClimate Institute. On current pledges, the planet will warm by a dangerous 3 C, according to scientists. But there has been progress too: China's declining coal use, an 18-percent increase in renewable energy since 2008, and the declining price of solar energy, NGOs say.
den Elzen M.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency |
Fekete H.,NewClimate Institute |
Hohne N.,NewClimate Institute |
Hohne N.,Wageningen University |
And 7 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2016
In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2e by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions before 2030. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Krabbe O.,Ecofys bv |
Krabbe O.,University Utrecht |
Linthorst G.,Ecofys bv |
Blok K.,Ecofys bv |
And 11 more authors.
Nature Climate Change | Year: 2015
Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target setting that keeps cumulative corporate GHG emissions within a specific carbon budget (for example, 550-1,300GtCO2 between 2011 and 2050 for the 2°C target). Here we propose a method for corporate emissions target setting that derives carbon intensity pathways for companies based on sectoral pathways from existing mitigation scenarios: the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA). These company targets take activity growth and initial performance into account. Next to target setting on company level, the SDA can be used by companies, policymakers, investors or other stakeholders as a benchmark for tracking corporate climate performance and actions, providing a mechanism for corporate accountability. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
Kuramochi T.,Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES |
Asuka J.,Tohoku University |
Fekete H.,NewClimate Institute |
Tamura K.,Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES |
And 2 more authors.
Climate Policy | Year: 2015
This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2 °C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget. The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550 ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets. Policy relevance In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2 °C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed. © 2015 Taylor & Francis