Kuramochi T.,NewClimate Institute |
Wakiyama T.,Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES |
Kuriyama A.,Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2016
This study conducted a comparative assessment and a meta-analysis of 48 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction scenarios based on bottom-up energy system analyses for 2030 reported in seven studies published between 2011 and 2015 to obtain insights into the ambition level of Japan's official mitigation target for 2030. First, the scenarios were categorised into four mitigation effort levels and assessed the GHG emissions range (excluding land use, land use change and forestry: LULUCF) as well as key underlying energy-related indicators for each effort level category. Second, a multiple regression equation was derived and applied to project GHG emissions with selected energy-related explanatory variables. Using the derived regression equation, we calculated the levels of low-carbon energy supply and end-use energy savings required to achieve different levels of GHG mitigation.In the first analysis, GHG emissions levels ranged between 16% and 39% below 1990 levels for scenarios that are categorised to have the highest level of mitigation efforts including those consistent with the 2. °C target, with the nuclear power share ranging at 0-29%. The second analysis indicated that regardless of the future nuclear share, GHG emissions reductions of more than 25% from 1990 levels may be considered a minimum effort required in the global efforts towards the 2. °C target. In this view, Japan's official 2030 target (15% below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF) is suggested to be insufficient, especially in light of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Strengthened pre-2020 targets and efforts to reduce energy end-use are essential to achieve such mitigation targets. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
Assessment of CO2 emissions pathways for the Japanese iron and steel industry towards 2030 with consideration of process capacities and operational constraints to flexibly adapt to a range of production levels
Kuramochi T.,NewClimate Institute
Journal of Cleaner Production | Year: 2017
This paper analysed CO2 emission pathways for the Japanese iron and steel industry towards 2030, taking into account the likely development of process capacities that could flexibly adapt to a range of projected future crude steel production levels (“optimal capacities”) while maintaining minimum capacity utilisation rates. Coke and pig iron production capacities were optimised to the levels that enable flexible operation for 90–120 Mt-crude steel/y, compared to 110 Mt/y in 2010. Operational constraints were applied to the capacity utilisation rates (minimum of 85%) and the maximum use of coke and pig iron substitutes. This paper also assessed the implications of the aforementioned flexible operation across a range of crude steel production levels on the future scrap balances. This study calculated the optimal capacities for coke ovens and blast furnaces in 2030 to be 29 Mt-coke/y (compared to 43 Mt/y in 2010) and 83 Mt-pig iron/y (compared to 90 Mt/y in 2010). Under these optimal capacities and the aforementioned range for crude steel production levels, the projected total CO2 emissions were 4–21% below 2010 levels. If the 2030 production level remains at 105 Mt/y, which equals the 2015 production level and the 1973–2015 average, the total emissions will be 9–16% below 2010 levels, depending on the level of emissions reduction effort. These results indicate that the industry is likely to considerably overachieve its voluntary emissions reduction target for 2030 (0.1% below 2010 levels). Moreover, it was found that the lifetime extensions for existing blast furnaces and coke ovens have limited impact on CO2 emissions while significantly reducing the investment needs. The study also showed that the low crude steel production (90 Mt/y) combined with high pig iron and coke consumption levels to maintain minimum capacity utilisation rates may lead not only to an increase in specific CO2 emissions per tonne of crude steel but also to a net export of obsolete scrap up to 17 Mt, which is nearly twice the historical high. Towards 2030, Japan would need to consider not only opportunities to maximize the use of steel scrap but also the development of an extended steel scrap trade infrastructure. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
News Article | November 10, 2016
Founder and CEO of Climate Analytics, Bill Hare speaks during a press conference, at the UN Climate Change Conference 2016 (COP22) in Marrakech, Morocco, November 10, 2016. REUTERS/Youssef Boudlal MARRAKESH, Morocco (Reuters) - Donald Trump's election as U.S. president muddies the outlook for efforts to cut greenhouse gases and could mean U.S. emissions stay flat until 2030, compared with deep cuts planned by President Barack Obama, scientists said on Thursday. Republican Trump, who has called climate change a hoax and is expected to favor the coal and oil industries, opposes last year's Paris Agreement by almost 200 nations to combat global warming. In the past year "national climate policies have made little progress, and the road ahead looks even less clear after the results of the U.S. presidential elections," three European scientific groups said in a report of global trends. "If President Trump abandons current policies as he has threatened to do, we estimate that in 2030, U.S. emissions will be similar to what they are today," said Niklas Hoehne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the research groups. Obama promised in Paris to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by between 26 and 28 percent by 2025 from 2005 levels. U.S. data show emissions were down 9 percent in 2014, compared to 2005. A Climate Action Tracker compiled by the researchers, issued at U.N. talks on climate change in Marrakesh, projected that existing policies including Obama's would lead to a warming in global temperatures of 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.0 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times by 2100. That is fractionally above a projected 2.7C (4.9F) rise in average surface temperatures estimated a year ago, largely due to technical revisions. Current policies need to be ratcheted up to achieve a goal set in Paris of limiting global warming to "well below" 2C (3.6F) by curbing a build-up of man-made greenhouse gases blamed for causing downpours, heatwaves and rising seas, the scientists said. It was too early to say how Trump's policies might affect the global outlook, they added. His election "would increase our (global) temperature estimate, but there are huge uncertainties," Hoehne said. Still, the study said a shift to renewable energies was likely to continue thanks to factors such as falling prices of solar power and wind power and improved ranges for electric vehicles. "Provided political leaders globally maintain their commitment to action, these tailwinds mean we should be able to ride through the turbulence that a climate skeptic in the White House could bring," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
News Article | November 10, 2016
MARRAKESH, Morocco (Reuters) - Donald Trump's election as U.S. president muddies the outlook for efforts to cut greenhouse gases and could mean U.S. emissions stay flat until 2030, compared with deep cuts planned by President Barack Obama, scientists said on Thursday. Republican Trump, who has called climate change a hoax and is expected to favour the coal and oil industries, opposes last year's Paris Agreement by almost 200 nations to combat global warming. In the past year "national climate policies have made little progress, and the road ahead looks even less clear after the results of the U.S. presidential elections," three European scientific groups said in a report of global trends. "If President Trump abandons current policies as he has threatened to do, we estimate that in 2030, U.S. emissions will be similar to what they are today," said Niklas Hoehne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the research groups. Obama promised in Paris to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by between 26 and 28 percent by 2025 from 2005 levels. U.S. data show emissions were down 9 percent in 2014, compared to 2005. A Climate Action Tracker compiled by the researchers, issued at U.N. talks on climate change in Marrakesh, projected that existing policies including Obama's would lead to a warming in global temperatures of 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.0 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times by 2100. That is fractionally above a projected 2.7C (4.9F) rise in average surface temperatures estimated a year ago, largely due to technical revisions. Current policies need to be ratcheted up to achieve a goal set in Paris of limiting global warming to "well below" 2C (3.6F) by curbing a build-up of man-made greenhouse gases blamed for causing downpours, heatwaves and rising seas, the scientists said. It was too early to say how Trump's policies might affect the global outlook, they added. His election "would increase our (global) temperature estimate, but there are huge uncertainties," Hoehne said. Still, the study said a shift to renewable energies was likely to continue thanks to factors such as falling prices of solar power and wind power and improved ranges for electric vehicles. "Provided political leaders globally maintain their commitment to action, these tailwinds mean we should be able to ride through the turbulence that a climate sceptic in the White House could bring," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
News Article | September 15, 2016
OSLO (Reuters) - The last gasoline-powered car will have to be sold by about 2035 to put the world on track to limit global warming to the most stringent goal set by world leaders last year, a study said on Thursday. The report, by a Climate Action Tracker (CAT) backed by three European research groups, said a drastic shift was needed towards clean electric cars and fuel efficiency since transport emits about 14 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions. Last December, world leaders at a Paris summit set a goal of limiting a rise in temperatures to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for a much tougher 1.5 C (2.7F) ceiling. "We calculate that the last gasoline/diesel car will have to be sold by roughly 2035," the CAT report said, to make the car fleet consistent with staying below 1.5C. It assumes the last fossil-fuel vehicles would be on the roads until 2050. The CAT is one of the main groups that monitors government actions to restrict global warming and includes researchers who are authors on U.N. climate reports. "It's striking that it's so early - it means a huge change in the whole automobile industry," Niklas Höhne, of the NewClimate Institute, told Reuters. The other think-tanks behind the report were Ecofys and Climate Analytics. The phase-out is earlier than set by most car makers. Toyota, for instance, has a "zero carbon dioxide emissions challenge" for new vehicles under which it aims to cut emissions from its vehicles by 90 percent by 2050, from 2010 levels. Many scientists reckon that the 1.5C goal, seen by many developing nations as a dangerous threshold for droughts, floods and rising sea levels, has already slipped out of reach and that the 2C limit is growing close. They believe temperatures will almost inevitably overshoot 1.5C, and that new technologies will be needed to turn down the global thermostat later this century. This year is set to be the warmest on record, with temperatures around 1C (1.8F) above pre-industrial times. The CAT report focused most on the promise of electric vehicles, developed by manufacturers from General Motors to Tesla. Other options are cars run on biofuels or hydrogen. The study said a greener transport sector would require a parallel shift to clean power generation, to avoid charging electric cars on power based on fossil fuels. "Electric vehicles are still more expensive to purchase than other cars, and policy projections still only see a share of around five percent of electric vehicles in the total European Union, China and U.S. fleets by 2030," the report said.
News Article | November 17, 2016
The Climate Action Tracker outlined the ten most important short-term steps the world must take in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis produced by three research organizations — Climate Analytics, Ecofys, and NewClimate Institute — tracking global climate action and efforts towards the globally agreed target of restricting global warming to 2°C since 2009. Released alongside the United Nations climate change talks happening in Marrakech, CAT published a report entitled 10 Steps: The Ten Most Important Short-Term Steps To Limit Warming To 1.5°C, which does just as its name suggests it would. The report spells out ten steps that all key sectors — energy generation, road transport, buildings, industry, forestry and land use, and commercial agriculture — must immediately begin enacting if we are to cut emissions. Scientists with CAT also warned that if one sector was to do less than the others — particularly the energy, industry, and transport sectors — they would leave behind a high-emissions legacy for several decades. They also point out that lack of action could result in a failure to set in motion the wider-system changes necessary to achieve the required long-term transformation. The ten steps are as follows: “Achieving these ten steps would put the world on a pathway to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C,” said Professor Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute. “For all of them, we show signs that a transition of this magnitude is possible: in many cases it’s already happening.” First and foremost is the electricity sector, which currently accounts for one-quarter of global emissions, and according to CAT, “needs to undertake the fastest transformation, and must be fully decarbonised by 2050.” “Renewables are the lowest carbon option in the electricity sector, and show the most promise,” said Yvonne Deng of Ecofys. “If renewables were to continue to grow at today’s rate through to 2025, it would set this sector on a path to full decarbonisation— and the power system and electricity markets need to get ready for this transformation.” The full report is available to read (PDF), for anyone wanting to dig further into each of the ten steps laid out by CAT. Buy a cool T-shirt or mug in the CleanTechnica store! Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech daily newsletter or weekly newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.
News Article | November 3, 2016
With the building sector already accounting for around 20% of climate change emissions, a new analysis published this week has warned that its energy demand is likely to double by mid-century if actions are not taken now to make buildings more sustainable. This is the primary conclusion from a new Climate Action Tracker analysis published this week entitled Constructing the Future: Will the building Sector Use its Decarbonisation Tools (PDF). The Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis conducted by three research organizations, Ecofys, Climate Analytics, and the NewClimate Institute, and backed by the ClimateWorks Foundation. The analysis further concludes that the technologies required to make new buildings zero-emissions are all currently available, but the sector is not adapting to these new technologies fast enough. Emissions from buildings more than doubled between 1990 to 2010, and now represent 20% of all global emissions. Policies currently in place will likely see the building sector see its energy demand skyrocket by 50% by 2050 than in 2010. Further delayed action in adapting to zero-emissions new building methods will likely increase pressure on other sectors to reduce their own carbon emissions to take up the slack left by the building sector, as well as creating the need in the future to deliver negative emissions, all in an effort to keep global warming within the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits — an issue which has only heightened, according to a new UNEP report published today. The Climate Action Tracker analysis therefore sets out a 1.5°C-compatible scenario for the building sector which would see all new buildings in the OECD built to zero-energy specifications by 2020, and all non-OECD buildings by 2025. The report also outlines methods for very high zero-emission renovation techniques. “We have to start building ‘Paris Agreement-proof’ buildings today,“ said Karlien Wouters of Ecofys. “Given the long lifetimes of buildings, rapid action is especially important in this sector. Any inefficient buildings we construct today will have to be renovated at greater cost later, adding to the challenge we’re already facing in renovating the majority of the existing building stock.” “The continued growth of emissions in the building sector is in direct contrast with the maturity of the technological solutions available — the tools have been there for decades, but the sector’s using them far too little,” added Sebastian Sterl of NewClimate Institute. Buy a cool T-shirt or mug in the CleanTechnica store! Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech daily newsletter or weekly newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.
News Article | September 3, 2016
The historic climate deal reached in Paris in December will only take effect after 55 nations responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions have ratified it (AFP Photo/Francois Guillot) Eight months after 195 nations concluded a hard-fought climate rescue pact, pressure is mounting to put its carbon-cutting promises into action as world leaders gather at G20 and UN meetings this month. The historic deal reached in Paris in December has been signed by 180 countries, but will only take effect after 55 nations responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions have ratified it -- making it binding. China -- responsible for around 25 percent of global carbon emissions -- ratified the pact Saturday, ahead of a meeting of G20 leaders where the United States is also expected to follow suit, considerably boosting efforts. Until Beijing joined the club, only 24 nations emitting just over one percent of the global total had officially acceded, according to the UN climate body overseeing the deal to cap global warming at two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels. "As 2016 heads into the record books as likely the hottest year ever recorded in history, it is a reminder that we have precious little time left to act to keep global temperature rise well below 2 C," Pascal Canfin of environmental group WWF said ahead of a two-day G20 summit opening in Hangzhou, eastern China, on Sunday. "We have the Paris Agreement to guide our way. Now we need governments to implement it," he said in a statement. China and the United States are jointly responsible for about 38 percent of emissions and had been widely expected to announce ratification at the Hangzhou gathering, which begins Sunday and brings together world leaders representing 85 percent of global GDP and two-thirds of its population. This will be followed on September 21 by UN chief Ban Ki-moon hosting a gathering on the sidelines of the General Assembly to beat the drum for ratification. The Climate Action Network (CAN), a global NGO grouping, urged G20 leaders in an open letter to ratify the pact "as soon as possible" as a restatement of political commitment. Early ratification would "also give a strong signal globally to business, cities and ordinary citizens to act ambitiously on climate change," it said. The pact sets out to curb warming by replacing atmosphere-polluting fossil fuels with renewable sources -- an ambitious goal towards which most UN nations have already pledged emissions curbs. This is meant to stave off the worst-case-scenario effects of violent droughts, storms and sea-level rise threatened by excessive planet warming. Only by ratification, however, does a country agree to be bound to an international agreement of this kind, explained the World Resources Institute (WRI), a climate think tank. Depending on constitutional provisions, many countries need to pass domestic legislation to do so. On Thursday, France's climate envoy Segolene Royal urged Paris-based ambassadors to agitate for speedy ratification by their respective nations. France hosted the UN huddle dubbed COP 21 (21st Conference of Parties) which yielded the climate pact. It will preside over the process until Morocco takes over as host of the next round of talks from November 7 to 18. Ratification before the Marrakech meet, said Royal, "will allow COP 22 to be a COP of action", focusing on practical solutions for reaching the set goals. With some 30 other nations having indicated their intent to formally adopt the pact, Royal may very well get her way. "Our assessment is that 55 parties are likely to ratify this year, representing 58 percent" of emissions," said the WRI's David Waskow. "It is a much more rapid process... than we have seen in the past for climate or any international regime of this type." By comparison, it took eight years for the Kyoto Protocol, which preceded the Paris agreement, to enter into force. The G20 meeting will be closely watched for progress. "The G20 countries generate about 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions," said Christoph Bals of the Germanwatch pressure group. "On that account they play a decisive role for the implementation of the ambitious Paris targets." More important even than ratification, observers agree, is cutting fossil fuel subsidies and other funding. "If G20 countries were to rid themselves of their reliance on coal, this would significantly impact their ability to increase their climate pledges and get their emissions trajectories on a below 2C pathway," said researcher Niklas Hohne of the NewClimate Institute. On current pledges, the planet will warm by a dangerous 3 C, according to scientists. But there has been progress too: China's declining coal use, an 18-percent increase in renewable energy since 2008, and the declining price of solar energy, NGOs say.
PubMed | Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, University of Cape Town and 4 more.
Type: Journal Article | Journal: Nature | Year: 2016
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
News Article | November 10, 2015
The report, by a new organization of scientists and other experts called Climate Transparency, also said 15 of the G20 members has seen strong growth in renewable energy in recent years. "Climate action by the G20 has reached a turning point, with per capita emissions falling in 11 members, and renewable energy growing strongly," the group said in a statement. The G20 accounts for about three-quarters of world greenhouse gases. It said G20 members "must all urgently decarbonize their economies" to meet a U.N. goal to limit average temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels to limit heat waves, floods and rising seas. Leaders of the G20, led by the United States and China, will meet in Turkey on Nov. 15-16. And France will host talks among almost 200 nations from Nov. 30-Dec. 11 to agree a plan to limit climate change beyond 2030. The report said the trend in per capita carbon emissions over the five years to 2012 was down in Australia, the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, Britain, the European Union, South Africa, Italy, France and Mexico. Per capita emissions were still rising in the most populous G20 nations, China and India. They were also up in Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Russia, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia. Still, that marked a shift in long-term trends. Over the past quarter century, G20 carbon dioxide emissions had risen by almost 50 percent while per capita emissions had gained by about 18 percent, reflecting population growth, it said. Alvaro Umana, a former Costa Rican environment minister and co-chair of Climate Transparency, said greater G20 cooperation on climate change was a "diplomatic landmark" after years of divisions between developing and developed nations on the issue. "But G20 countries need to do more," he told Reuters. Overall G20 greenhouse gas emissions averaged 11 tonnes per person per year, against what the report said was a goal of one to three tonnes by 2050 to get warming under control. Promised actions "are still far way from what’s necessary for the 2C goal," said Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the groups behind the initiative.