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Adams D.S.,New Liberty
Scandinavian Economic History Review | Year: 2015

This paper analyses contemporary perceptions of the First World War in order to identify which historical events were considered turning points in the war effort by actors at the time. Using a new data-set of daily prices of French war debt issued and traded in London, it looks for structural breaks in the time series using a four-step rolling windows algorithm. The data confirm that contemporary actors reacted strongly to some events considered to be less relevant by historians, such as the Battles of Jutland and Caporetto, and did not significantly react to other events generally considered by historians to be turning points for the war effort, such as the German Michael Offensive, the Russian Revolution of 1917 and the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare. The analysis indicates that contemporary views of turning points in the war differed significantly from those in ex post historical accounts, indicating that the relative importance placed on certain events by historians might not reflect the views held by contemporary financial and political actors. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

The insurers of the security of systems at the largest global companies see the large consumers of IT services as the most concerned about security in the supply chain. Concerns in the private sector naturally go beyond national boundaries especially among those companies that operate across borders. Among the consumers of IT products and services, it is the largest and most established companies with the strongest market positions and the most to lose if systems fail that are leading the movement towards more robust testing and measurement of the cyber supply chain. The Russian government has had technology certification requirements but has only recently initiated the National Software Platform effort based on open-source and Russian proprietary software. The aim of the platform is both to ensure national security by increasing technological independence and to grow the development of domestic IT products so that it can become a technology services exporter.

Haughwout A.F.,New Liberty
Journal of Regional Science | Year: 2010

Metropolitan areas (MSAs) are the location of the great majority of economic activity in the United States, and the largest produce a disproportionate share of output. It is thus critical for the economy's long-term growth that large cities operate efficiently. In this paper, we briefly review the sources of productivity growth in cities. We then discuss the costs and benefits of political decentralization in large MSAs. After documenting the interdependence of the suburbs and central cities in large MSA, we develop a model that embodies many of the empirically verified aspects, including agglomeration economies and public goods. After calibrating the model to actual outcomes in a representative city, we simulate the effects of various kinds of fiscal redistributions. We conclude that, under the model, some kinds of fiscal redistributions can provide benefits in both cities and suburbs. © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

This paper examines the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on energy prices using an event study with intraday data. Three measures for monetary policy surprises are used: 1) the surprise change to the current federal funds target rate, 2) the surprise component to the future path of policy, and 3) the unanticipated announcement of future large-scale asset purchases (LSAP). Estimation results show that monetary policy surprises have economically important and highly significant effects on the level and volatility of energy futures prices and their trading volumes. I find that, on average, a hypothetical unanticipated 100-basis-point hike in the federal funds target rate is associated with roughly a 3% decrease in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. I also document that, in a narrow window around the FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve's LSAP1 and LSAP2 programs have a cumulative financial market impact on crude oil equivalent to an unanticipated cut in the federal funds target rate of 156 basis points. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Ioannides Y.M.,Tufts University | Topa G.,New Liberty
Journal of Regional Science | Year: 2010

The paper addresses the empirical significance of the social context in economic decisions. Decisions of individuals who share spatial and social milieus are likely to be interdependent, and econometric identification of social effects poses intricate data and methodological problems, including dealing with self-selection in spatial and social groups. It uses a simple empirical framework to introduce social interactions effects at different levels of aggregation, and examines estimation problems in linear models, the impact of self-selection and of nonlinearities. It also examines neighborhood effects in job matching and proposes a research agenda that offers new techniques and data sources. © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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