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Moore P.,Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne | Williams S.D.P.,National Oceanography CentreLiverpool UK
Water Resources Research | Year: 2015

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change for 2003-2011 is estimated over Africa from GRACE gravimetric data. The signatures from change in water of the major lakes are removed by utilizing kernel functions with lake heights recovered from retracked ENVISAT satellite altimetry. In addition, the contribution of gravimetric change due to soil moisture and biomass is removed from the total GRACE signal by utilizing the GLDAS land surface model. The residual TWS time series, namely groundwater and the surface waters in rivers, wetlands, and small lakes, are investigated for trends and the seasonal cycle using linear regression. Typically, such analyses assume that the data are temporally uncorrelated but this has been shown to lead to erroneous inferences in related studies concerning the linear rate and acceleration. In this study, we utilize autocorrelation and investigate the appropriate stochastic model. The results show the proper distribution of TWS change and identify the spatial distribution of significant rates and accelerations. The effect of surface water in the major lakes is shown to contribute significantly to the trend and seasonal variation in TWS in the lake basin. Lake Volta, a managed reservoir in Ghana, is seen to have a contribution to the linear trend that is a factor of three greater than that of Lake Victoria despite having a surface area one-eighth of that of Lake Victoria. Analysis also shows the confidence levels of the deterministic trend and acceleration identifying areas where the signatures are most likely due to a physical deterministic cause and not simply stochastic variations. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. Source

Feng X.,National Oceanography CentreSouthampton UK | Tsimplis M.N.,National Oceanography CentreSouthampton UK | Woodworth P.L.,National Oceanography CentreLiverpool UK
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans | Year: 2015

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954-2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4-7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Source

Wilson C.,National Oceanography CentreLiverpool UK | Hughes C.W.,University of LiverpoolLiverpool | Blundell J.R.,UK National Oceanography Center
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans | Year: 2015

We use ensemble runs of a three layer, quasi-geostrophic idealized Southern Ocean model to explore the roles of forced and intrinsic variability in response to a linear increase of wind stress imposed over a 30 year period. We find no increase of eastward circumpolar volume transport in response to the increased wind stress. A large part of the resulting time series can be explained by a response in which the eddy kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the wind stress with a possible time lag, but no statistically significant lag is found. However, this simple relationship is not the whole story: several intrinsic time scales also influence the response. We find an e-folding time scale for growth of small perturbations of 1-2 weeks. The energy budget for intrinsic variability at periods shorter than a year is dominated by exchange between kinetic and potential energy. At longer time scales, we find an intrinsic mode with period in the region of 15 years, which is dominated by changes in potential energy and frictional dissipation in a manner consistent with that seen by Hogg and Blundell (2006). A similar mode influences the response to changing wind stress. This influence, robust to perturbations, is different from the supposed linear relationship between wind stress and eddy kinetic energy, and persists for 5-10 years in this model, suggestive of a forced oscillatory mode with period of around 15 years. If present in the real ocean, such a mode would imply a degree of predictability of Southern Ocean dynamics on multiyear time scales. Key Points:: Southern Ocean response to wind stress has forced and intrinsic components EKE has a mostly linear relationship to wind stress, with time lag ∼0 Also a ∼15 year forced response which does not have a linear relationship © 2014. The Authors. Source

Woodworth P.L.,National Oceanography CentreLiverpool UK | Menendez M.,University of Cantabria
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans | Year: 2015

A data set of precise radar altimeter sea surface heights obtained from the same 10 day repeat ground track has been analyzed to determine the magnitude of change in the ocean "mesoscale" variability over two decades. Trends in the standard deviation of sea surface height variability each year are found to be small (typically ∼0.5 percent/yr) throughout the global ocean. Trends in positive and negative extreme sea level in each region are in general found to be similar to those of mean sea level, with some small regional exceptions. Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) analysis also demonstrates that spatial variations in the statistics of extreme positive sea levels are determined largely by the corresponding spatial variations in mean sea level changes, and are related to regional modes of the climate system such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Trends in the standard deviation of along-track sea level gradient variability are found to be close to zero on a global basis, with regional exceptions. Altogether our findings suggest an ocean mesoscale variability that displays little change when considered over an extended period of two decades, but that is superimposed on a spatially and temporally varying signal of mean sea level change. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Source

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