Ezeiza, Argentina
Ezeiza, Argentina

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Kazimierski L.D.,National Institute for Water | Irigoyen M.,National Institute for Water | Re M.,National Institute for Water | Menendez A.N.,National Institute for Water | And 2 more authors.
International Journal of River Basin Management | Year: 2013

In a Climate Change context, it is relevant to assess the potential impacts of variations of climate drivers on sediment yield from basins with high soil exportation rates. This paper develops a methodology, based on the erosion potential method, which was applied to the upper basins of Bermejo and Pilcomayo Rivers (in the Upper Plata Basin), to estimate future trends in sediment yield. Projections for climate drivers (rainfall and temperature) were obtained through four regional climate models, with boundary conditions provided by three global climate models, for the period 2011-2100. Satellite imagery and gridded climate data were used to implement the sediment yield baseline scenario (1961-1990), which was calibrated based on solid discharge data. The model was used to determine projections of sediment yields, as time series of mean annual values for each basin. The analysis was performed on average for three-decadal periods, namely, the scenarios of 'near future' (2011-2040), for which current yields are essentially maintained; 'intermediate future' (2041-2070), where a reduction trend is detected; and 'far future' (2071-2100), with a recovery of yields, which even increase above the baseline scenario rate in the case of the Bermejo Upper Basin. © 2013 © 2013 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.


Guerrero M.,University of Bologna | Re M.,National Institute for Water | Kazimierski L.D.D.,National Institute for Water | Menendez A.N.,National Institute for Water | Ugarelli R.,Sintef
International Journal of River Basin Management | Year: 2013

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on modifying the dredging cost to maintain the navigation channel at the actual capacity of the Parana waterway (Argentina). The Parana-Paraguay Rivers system is one of the most important inner navigation waterways in the world, where approximately 100 million tons of cargo are transported per year. Maintenance of the navigation channel requires continuous dredging by Hidrovía SA (limited liability company), which is responsible for ensuring the minimum water depth for navigation. A failure event occurred during January 2012 when a bulk cargo carrier ran aground, interrupting fluvial trading for 10 days. Numerical models were applied to simulate hydro-sedimentation processes at the Lower Parana River to estimate dredging costs for a given flow discharge. The resulting function relates the sedimentation rate (i.e. the dredging effort required to keep the present depth for vessel draft) to forcing hydrology conditions. This function and the statistical evaluation of climate scenarios were used to calculate the probability of failure for navigation and the associated cost of channel maintenance. The most appropriate dredging effort was estimated by detecting the minimum total cost (i.e. dredging plus failure) to varying the yearly average discharge and by analysing the sensitivity of the total cost to different degrees of economic impact. © 2013 © 2013 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.

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